Europe

[gr1nch]

Since Brexit is well and truly under way, I'm thinking a non-UK, European focused thread on matters of interest will be, well, interesting . The country voted on being out of the EU, not out of (i.e. having nothing to do with) Europe.

First off, given the dramatic events in the French election, here's an excellent neutral piece from the BBC (!) of Marine Le Pen, the FN, her father, family and transition to the top two force in French politics, as a conservative party with surprisingly historic left-leaning sympathies and policies.
Marine Le Pen - BBC News

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[219]

I wouldn't count too many chickens until this election is past - the main question the election hinges on is this one of Brexit , and if the Conservatives were voted out a new government could call a halt to it .

A lot can happen in a few weeks ...

 

[Darrell]

If a new government is voted in then can't the opposing voters just have a couple of riots to get their own way? After all isn't that what the remainers are attempting to do at the moment. Mob rule and all that?

 

[Deleted member 6183]

I wouldn't count too many chickens until this election is past - the main question the election hinges on is this one of Brexit , and if the Conservatives were voted out a new government could call a halt to it .

A lot can happen in a few weeks ...

I wonder how a new government could position that decision?

'You know that referendum that we had? The one where the British public voted to leave? Well, we are not going to implement it, doesn't really suit our beliefs, OK with you lot?'

 

[mattc]

Don't rate the chances of this thread lasting till midnight.

Good luck to any party that tries to ignore the referendum

 

[219]

I wonder how a new government could position that decision?

'You know that referendum that we had? The one where the British public voted to leave? Well, we are not going to implement it, doesn't really suit our beliefs, OK with you lot?'

Well , the point of this election is so that the current government can strengthen their mandate to go through with Brexit .

If the country as a whole votes against it , then the process can be stopped , as the EU mandarins have already confirmed is possible .

The election is effectively a second referendum , with the electorate now much better informed than they were first time round .

If a new government is elected on the ticket of staying in , then why shouldn't we since it will be a democratic vote .

 

[grober]

Who is funding her? She's ditched her name and has just temporarily distanced herself from the party that was her powerbase till now. Perhaps modeling herself on Trump who Chimaera like, constantly labelled himself "a non politician" while running for the most powerful political position in the land.
BBC iPlayer - Panorama - Marine Le Pen: Who's Funding France's Far Right?

 

[Dryce]

I wouldn't count too many chickens until this election is past - the main question the election hinges on is this one of Brexit , and if the Conservatives were voted out a new government could call a halt to it .

If a party came into government with an explicit manifesto to reverse a refrendum decision that might seem fine.

But traditionally governments are elected on a smaller share of the vote than the referendum result.

So it would be highly problematic.

So would the correct way to go about it would perhaps be to promise a new referendum. possibly - but what if they get elected hold an new ref - and lose it.

So that could be problematic too.

 

[219]

It is all highly questionable , but May's given reason for holding the election is to strengthen her mandate to go through with Brexit - as if she feels she needs to ...

The flip side of that is if she loses the election , or sees her majority significantly reduced , then any mandate she currently has will be reduced .

The referendum , IIRC , was quite marginal overall , with only Scotland voting decisively the other way ( to remain ) .

Ironically , an end to Brexit could also reduce the calls for a second Independence referendum up here , and prolong the Union .

 

[grober]

Since this is a European thread perhaps a more relevant question would be ask if the UK is likely to get a better Brexit Deal out of Europe if " Marine" was President of France or not? Presumably within or without the EU her France First nationalist policy might have a bearing on the negotiations ?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Le Pen or Macron - a tough choice

Le Pen's a curious old bird. It's interesting how the English don't understand how she's not really pure Right Wing and how much people are moving away from the whole 20th Century Left and Right Wing debate.

Choosing a pretty young chap like Macron seem so much easier: good looking, well tailored suits, says the right things. But the English don't understand how "your average Frenchman" might not be comfortable with this city type, who has never been elected to anything, and owes his credibility to being the Finance Minister to the most unpopular Post-war President, and to just two years as a Rothschild Investment banker.

It's a curious thing that if an Englishman had married his (37 year old) School teacher, she would have had to leave the teaching profession, and he would be much ridiculed. Just goes to show how wide that English Channel really is.

Everything to play for over the next two weeks. It's not yet a slum dunk for Macron.

 

[Druk]

Le Pen's a curious old bird. It's interesting how the British don't understand how she's not really pure Right Wing and how much people are moving away from the whole 20th Century Left and Right Wing debate.

Choosing a pretty young chap like Macron seem so much easier: good looking, well tailored suits, says the right things. But the British don't understand how "your average Frenchman" might not be comfortable with this city type, who has never been elected to anything, and owes his credibility to being the Finance Minister to the most unpopular Post-war President, and to just two years as a Rothschild Investment banker.

It's a curious thing that if an British man had married his (37 year old) School teacher, she would have had to leave the teaching profession, and he would be much ridiculed. Just goes to show how wide that English Channel really is.

Everything to play for over the next two weeks. It's not yet a slum dunk for Macron.

Fixed that for you Mike. Let's hope it stays that way.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Only you could do that, Druk.....

Fixed that for you Mike. Let's hope it stays that way.

It's a brave man who generalises about Brits, but you're right on this one, Druk....

 

[219]

Since this is a European thread perhaps a more relevant question would be ask if the UK is likely to get a better Brexit Deal out of Europe if " Marine" was President of France or not? Presumably within or without the EU her France First nationalist policy might have a bearing on the negotiations ?

I can't comment on that one since I openly admit I don't know enough about French politics , or the policies of the various contenders .

 

[219]

Fixed that for you Mike. Let's hope it stays that way.

Derek - isn't it called ' La Manche ' or something suchlike ??

 

[gr1nch]

Yep, it's La Manche

Unlikely the Tories will lose the election, as they have the momentum and a weak and fractured opposition. Arguably May is in a better position than Cameron was and he managed to not need the Liberals for government the second time. It will be a very interesting election, in part as a proxy for a re-referendum. I wouldn't be surprised if the parliamentary majority ends up higher than the original referendum majority. Perhaps it will, as May has been training reduce the infighting in parliament, but also let's hope reduce the infighting in the country as a whole and have the vast majority of Remainders accept Brexit and get on with working with the majority to make a success of it.

And if Marine Le Pen is an unlikely winner, she is commited to a Frexit, so would be at least in the same armada as May, of not exactly the same boat . I suspect she would not hard bargain as the other Eurocratic country leaders would.

And in common with the modern UK Tories, the French FN is continuing to attract formerly left-of-centre voters, more than the Labour / Socialists are attracting the voters that are right-of-center. The old party lines are getting blurred - the focus really seems to be on policies these days.


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[MikeInWimbledon]

And that's a fact

Unlikely the Tories will lose the election, as they have the momentum and a weak and fractured opposition.

Yep, it's Momentum thats created the majority.

 

[Petrol Pete]

I wonder how a new government could position that decision?

'You know that referendum that we had? The one where the British public voted to leave? Well, we are not going to implement it, doesn't really suit our beliefs, OK with you lot?'

That's exactly what happened in Ireland not that long ago when they voted the 'wrong' way.

 

[grober]

In terms of brexit negotiations with "Marine " as president it might go two ways. Using the UK as a guinea pig/dry run she might for example try to influence a good deal for the UK's exit package with France's future exit in mind . However with a potential FREXIT in the offing this may prompt the remaining EU countries to impose a more punishing exit deal for the UK---- "pour encourager les autres" not to do likewise.

 

[fabes]

Just been over in Lille for some meetings yesterday.
I think we talked about work for an hour.....

Its gripping the people whom I met, that neither of them come from the establishment / established parties.
It is a French revolution in that respect.
"Marine" has a mountain to climb but a bit like Mr Nigel F, her presence may shape policies and offers over the next two weeks as Macron sees the depths that France has found itself in

Politics is enjoying a real renaissance across the world....