The Elephant in the Room

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I had forgotten Russia has an 11 mile border with North Korea. It would appear that Russia and China are treating NK a bit like the spoilt child that's turning into a horrific teenager they can't control anymore but still somehow retain a sense of loyalty to them. This might be deduced from their troop deployments when things first kicked off being terrified any US strikes would result in a stream of refugees into their countries.
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One thing is certain without Russian and/or Chinese support [ particularly oil ] the regime would have collapsed by now. In terms of NK 's rapidly developing nuclear technology I wouldn't be surprised if rather than being developed "in house" its more an "off the shelf " item in whole or in part from sources unknown.
History would tell us that the 20th century ideological struggle between capitalism and communism [ East v West ] was conveniently "localised" into a series of proxy wars be it Korea, Vietnam, Bosnia or Afghanistan with the major players just cheering from the sidelines - maybe this is the next one? The key to getting out of the ideological regime change game would be appear to be the possession of nuclear weapons and its argued this why NK's ruling regime want's to develop a nuclear capability.
 
How about Russia are using North Korea to develop new weapons for them thereby circumventing any treaties Russia may have signed under that God awful previous regime....
 
Don't see it as this would be relinquishing control of advanced weaponry to an unstable regime next door . What I could see is some Russian oligarch selling some old cold war USSR weapons technology they had salted away for cash money. I'm not sure which is more dangerous the weapon or the delivery system?
 
Don't see it as this would be relinquishing control of advanced weaponry to an unstable regime next door . What I could see is some Russian oligarch selling some old cold war USSR weapons technology they had salted away for cash money. I'm not sure which is more dangerous the weapon or the delivery system?

There's an assumption that NK can't do it for itself and needs help.

Well perhaps.

But the development of ICBMs and nuclear weapons goes back a bit over 70 years. They are not that new. In other areas technology has become a lot cheaper - eg. electronics and digital controls. This also applies to testing and development and simulation where commodity computing compnents can be assembled to make computers that far exceed the super computers of 50 years ago.

And I would assume that in NK the scientific and engineering manpower is rather cheap compared with the costs of similar efforts in the West. Their economy doesn't play by the same rules as elsewhere - even the old communist blocs have moved on.
 
I'd be almost willing to make a bet that there will be Russian scientists in North Korea running this, providing the tech, similar to Einstein and Manhattan. Putins way of getting round the system.

I just don't think the North Koreans are going this alone for one moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYi9vAI7weA
 
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I think that while deep-down Russia and China are not happy about Kim's nukes.... they are very pleased to see the US getting a good bashing from NK, and they keep reiterating that the current tensions are the result of the heavy US military presence in the region.

The underlying sentiment for them is simple - the US should bugger-off back to North America, they have no business deploying their military hardware in the Far East.

Russia sees itself as the regional power and believes that the Ukraine should be left for them to deal with, and China believes the same regarding Korea (North and South). They see the local smaller countries as potential protectorates, and what they both have in common is that they want to see the back of the US. And this is where they see the current tension as serving their long-term goals.
 
I think that while deep-down Russia and China are not happy about Kim's nukes.... they are very pleased to see the US getting a good bashing from NK, and they keep reiterating that the current tensions are the result of the heavy US military presence in the region.

The underlying sentiment for them is simple - the US should bugger-off back to North America, they have no business deploying their military hardware in the Far East.

I don't think Russia cares directly.

China OTOH would probably be a lot better off with a border with a SK type Korea rather than NK type. The border area would probably be a commercial hot spot for both - and there would be no reason for US men and materiel on that corner of the continent.

In that sense NK's value - if any - to China probably expired 20 years ago - and it's a drag now.

What they're left with is an irritant that they can't get rid of and they can't support the US in dealing with it either. At the same time NK's belligerance keeps the US very active in the region. China doesn't want that. It justifies US installing ABM systems in SK. China won;'t want that. It justifies US putting nukes on SK soil. They really don't want that.

And looking past the US it encourages SK and particularly Japan to militarise and focus on ABM and possibly even nuclear programmes.

If you were looking at an indirect outcome of all of this then a breakthrough in effective ABM technology and deployment is someting that might well arise. That raises a whole raft of questions about deterence globally - and would have an impact on all the main powers including France and the UK. And in the region it means China would probably be forced to spend even more to compete.

So a NK that stirs things up in the region is actually bad news for China in the medium to long term.

Even Russia is indirectly affected if things get stirred up - it makes nations such as France and UK on this side of the world less likely to give up their nuclear deterrents as replacement becomes due - and means that the western allies will take up a more active interest in ABM technology. Which means it will have to consider spending on upgrading its nuclear penetrarion capability.
 
Politically, socially and economically the USA negotiates by bullying. They use this approach with any business, nation or belief system that doesn't agree with their view of how things should be. They whinge about the Imperialistic history of the UK and other Western European countries, but then effectively behave in the same way by trying to force their financial, greed-first, me-first agenda onto all they deal with. They only fall short in so far as they then don't occupy/colonise the country/region per ce. They just create chaos and then expect everyone else to pick up the pieces. They do however occupy/colonise companies and in my experience change the way they operate and suck the maximum of whatever they can out of the workforce.

The North Korean situation is more focused because of continued US military presence in the area. However, without that presence, there would be no unifying common enemy for the NK government to use as a mechanism for conducting affairs as they do. Given the poor living standards that the vast majority of NK citizens have, without being able to justify their policies via anti US propaganda (and of course backing from China) the NK government regime would have been ousted years ago.

As for the nuclear threat. This is of course properly worrying because NK seems to think that simply having and demonstrating that they nuclear weapons capability, will benefit them in some way. This couldn't be further from the truth. Their country and waybof life will become more vulnerable, isolated and even less prosperous than it is now. I sincerely hope that they do not launch a live air-burst nuke over the Pacific as the next step in their programme. The consequences for all of us are unthinkable.

I never thought I would find myself in agreement with Putin. I think he is right when he says sanctions against NK have reached the point where they are ineffective. They may even have the reverse effect, i.e. push NK harder towards considering using nuclear weapons to deter the bullies.

Having Kim Yong Un itching to have a hand on the red button on one side and Donald Trump desperate to send another ego massaging tweet on the other side, is a pretty scary situation to say the least.
 
Politically, socially and economically the USA negotiates by bullying. They use this approach with any business, nation or belief system that doesn't agree with their view of how things should be.

Poltically, socially and economically all larger or more dominant countries do this. And it happens between smaller countries within regions - and also within trading blocks and federations.

It's a universal truth.


The North Korean situation is more focused because of continued US military presence in the area. However, without that presence, there would be no unifying common enemy for the NK government to use as a mechanism for conducting affairs as they do. Given the poor living standards that the vast majority of NK citizens have, without being able to justify their policies via anti US propaganda (and of course backing from China) the NK government regime would have been ousted years ago.

I think the NK regime would have been rather more beligerent to its southern neighbour over the years. It was well supported by the Chinese and Soviets until the early 90s after which they moved on and NK under its cult leadership did not.

As for the nuclear threat. This is of course properly worrying because NK seems to think that simply having and demonstrating that they nuclear weapons capability, will benefit them in some way. This couldn't be further from the truth. Their country and waybof life will become more vulnerable, isolated and even less prosperous than it is now. I sincerely hope that they do not launch a live air-burst nuke over the Pacific as the next step in their programme. The consequences for all of us are unthinkable.
There is unfortunately a cold logic to their position. Survive sanctions until you have WMDs and then utilise the threat of WMDs to loosen sanctions and in the case of Kim secure his position.

I never thought I would find myself in agreement with Putin. I think he is right when he says sanctions against NK have reached the point where they are ineffective. They may even have the reverse effect, i.e. push NK harder towards considering using nuclear weapons to deter the bullies.

Putin doesn't have to make any sort of moral stand. He would quite happily sell NK weapons and material without really caring about the consequence. (Hint - where did NK get its Migs and Kilo). He's happy to undermine his neighbours in a way that goes rather beyond your opening accusation towards the US.

I wouldn't be suprised if Russia has encouraged NK to some extent - it gives them a wedge to drive between the US and China and discomfort Japan.

Having Kim Yong Un itching to have a hand on the red button on one side and Donald Trump desperate to send another ego massaging tweet on the other side, is a pretty scary situation to say the least.

Would it really be that much less scary if it was say Barack Obama as Commander-in-Chief or if NK was directing its ire at China or Russia rather than the SK, US, and Japan.

This situation ultimately represents a failure by China to control what it helped create and nurture. But as usual the criticism tends to be directed in the first instance to 'the West while the authoritarian regimes in the other two latrge blocs are treated less critically.

If the situation involved a US backed despot in Seoul posed to unleash armageddon on a peaceful NK and China then we wouldn't be suggesting that China was the problem or that its armed forces stationed in NK were the a provocation. Our media would be screaming at our own government to leverage the US. Media in China and Russia doesn't work that way.
 
If Russia, China and the US wanted to they could solve this without a drop of blood. Shows me how disgusting the third world is, not to mention the devious ways of engaging the trendy lefties in the West to make it out as a US problem.

I must say Trump is hanging back quite nicely instead of rushing in and invading a sovereign nation supposedly looking for WMD's like the UK did.
Shows quite a high level of Statesmanship I think.
 
Poltically, socially and economically all larger or more dominant countries do this. And it happens between smaller countries within regions - and also within trading blocks and federations.

It's a universal truth.

But other countries don't tend to do it whilst blowing their own trumpet about being the World's greatest democracy and the home of the free. It's the hypocrisy that rankles.


I think the NK regime would have been rather more beligerent to its southern neighbour over the years. It was well supported by the Chinese and Soviets until the early 90s after which they moved on and NK under its cult leadership did not.

North Korea remains extremely well supported by China - politically, economically and militarily.
 
If Russia, China and the US wanted to they could solve this without a drop of blood. Shows me how disgusting the third world is, not to mention the devious ways of engaging the trendy lefties in the West to make it out as a US problem.

Which of your "trendy lefties" have tried to "make it out as a US problem" ? It's quite obviously a global problem.

I must say Trump is hanging back quite nicely instead of rushing in and invading a sovereign nation supposedly looking for WMD's like the UK did.

When did this happen ? I remember when we foolishly agreed to support the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and WMDs were used as a flimsy pretext for what was really the Bush administration's desire for regime change and securing access to Iraqi oil. However, I don't recall the UK ever using WMDs as a reason to invade a sovereign nation when acting alone.
 

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