Avian Flu

[Benzowner]

What is all the hype about. Worldwide there have been around 65 deaths not all of which can be directly linked to the so called flu pandemic. There are around that number of pigeon fanciers killed each year in the uk from "Pigeon Lung" Why is the media hyping this story up so much, or what is trying to be hidden? This is a worldwide thing not just UK so it may not be a governmental issue. Is it, perhaps, to try and hide any attrocities that may have occured in Iraq with their reforrendum, or does some terrorist group have hold of a dirty weapon, which the resultant use could put the blame on the bird flu virus? A bit far fetched perhaps, but anyone have any other ideas, or heard of any conspitacies ?

The media is hyping it up, only this morning, the manufacturer of the antivirus is opening a new plant somewhere in the states to help produce more of the antivirus. Bearing in mind though, it has not yet mutated into a virus that van be spread by humans, so how is the anivirus made, or will that mutate as well

 

[Dieter]

Hi Geoff,

I tend to agree with you but it must be remembered that previous flu outbreaks have stemmed from mutating bird flu variants.

As for the antivrus 'bit' I think you are referring to 'Tamiflu'. This is not a virus but a drug so it (Tamiflu) can't mutate. If taken early enough it may reduce viral replication so that the body can more easily 'fight' of the virus.

Flu vaccines (generally) contain 'bits' of viruses (to generate antibody responses etc.) and these 'bits' are not sufficient to replicate

If the media hype convinces our Government to get in enough supplies (of Tamiflu) to treat everyone, not just essential service staff (i.e. themselves)
then that's a positive in my book.

Cheers,

 

[DITTRICH]

Hype is usually generated by people who stand to gain from it - either financially eg vaccine manufacturers or otherwise eg drawing attention away from something else. 'A good day to bury bad news' as someone in the government once said.
Les

 

[Thmsshaun]

Hype is usually generated by people who stand to gain from it - either financially eg vaccine manufacturers or otherwise eg drawing attention away from something else. 'A good day to bury bad news' as someone in the government once said.
Les

So very true take the millenium bug

 

[fuzzer]

So very true take the millenium bug

I want another millennium bug

Who wants to start rumours about a 2008 meltdown ?

 

[kenwaic]

hmmmmm i remember when i was in hong kong a few years ago and they had an outbreak of h5n1 they culled every single chicken in the place in three days,surely they had a good reason for it!

 

[Mozzer]

Anyone read State of Fear by Michael Crichton yet ? A great book all about the global warming myths.

One of the comments that stuck in my mind was the ramblings of an apparently "mad" professor who had done a study on the use of language.

For example the use of words like "crisis", "Pandemic" and "catastrophe" in the media increased dramatically at the time of the Berlin wall coming down (nothing to do with David Hasslehoff's singing ).

The basic premise is that in order to control a nation, you need to have some element of fear instilled so that the nation feels it needs its government to protect it. With the cold war being over and subsequently the perceived threat of communist invasion, suddenly more emphasis has been put on global issues such as ice caps melting due to CO2 emmissions and the greenhouse effect, millennium bug, etc.

It also majors on the comment Thmsshaun has stated about who starts these rumours.

I don't think I have spoiled any of the plot, so I would recommend it as a read.

S

 

[996jimbo]

From what I understand the worry about avian flu us that it has killed around 50% of the people who have contracted it. At the moment it is only transferred bird to man, so you keep away from birds and you're OK. When (if) it mutates in to a man to man transmittable virus then it will be transmitted rapidly and extensively through humans. If the death rate remains at 50%, well: nightmare.

Vaccines work by giving you a small dose of the virus so's you build up an immunity. So far the Avian flu hasn't mutated in to a human transmittable form and therefore there is as yet no virus against which to make a vaccine. Sadly it's a chicken and egg scenario (sorry for the pun).

To be effectively protected you have to have the vaccine before contracting the flu.
Thamiflu is a treatment available now for when you've got the flu - it helps you deal with the virus (as said above) but doesn't cure you of itself.

The point about controlling a population is an interesting one. However, I would suggest that the point is probably more relevant to the issue of ID cards where the threat of terrorism is exaggerated to encourage us to accept less freedom. Accepted, though, that the profile given to Avian flu diverts attention from Iraq. But there again conspiracy theories are no-win trains of thought.

 

[Shude]

From what I understand the worry about avian flu us that it has killed around 50% of the people who have contracted it. At the moment it is only transferred bird to man, so you keep away from birds and you're OK.

Not just a few birds either, those to contract the condition were exposed to literally millions of birds.

 

[DITTRICH]

From what I understand the worry about avian flu us that it has killed around 50% of the people who have contracted it. At the moment it is only transferred bird to man, so you keep away from birds and you're OK. When (if) it mutates in to a man to man transmittable virus then it will be transmitted rapidly and extensively through humans. If the death rate remains at 50%, well: nightmare.

This 50% mortality rate bothers me. I think it means that out of the people who actually got the flu (unknown,undiagnosed/misdiagnosed), about 120 were serious enough to have to go to hospital (where it was diagnosed) and of these hospital cases - about 60 died (quality of treatment received also unknown).

I think this is precisely why our government sent some people down to Asia to look at their reporting / monitoring n order to ascertain what the 'true' percentage is likely to be. I think the 'worst case' scenario is likely to be better than the papers and tv would have us believe.

Example - just after 9/11 the papers were quoting tens of thousands of fatalities - final result was much less than that (forgot actual figure).

Rgds

Les

 

[Mr E]

There was a good explanation on the radio the other day from a virologist -

Humans have no natural immunity to H5N1 in it's current form. If it mutates to a form where human-human transmission becomes viable, it will then spread very rapidly through the population. However, the upside is that for the virus to be robust enough to survive long enough to support this type of transmisison, it has to be less dangerous (or so it has been observed in the past).

The problem occures with the large number of infected persons, not the current mortality rate - 100 million infections at a mortality rate of 0.1% (which if I remember correctly is the current mortality rate for overage influenza) means 100,000 deaths. Spanish flu was 2.5% mortality............

This is why there is some concern about this.

 

[PJH]

World population in 1918 was approx 1.8 Billion, Spanish 'flu killed 20 Million in 8 weeks.
Superflu
Current World population is approx 6.5 Billion, projected deaths would be 72 Million. (assuming a similar percentage of infection).

Although we SHOULD be more prepared now, there is also more (and faster) international travel than after The Great War. So the infection would travel further quicker.

I think that is the main reason for the panic.

 

[janner]

(Y = a + b1t + b2cos(p t / 26) + b3sin(p t / 26) + b4cos(p t / 26) + b5cos(p t / 26) + E ) )

Ahhh, I see now.

 

[janner]

Besides, why are we all bothered? Bird flu only affects women, doesn't it?

 

[esox]

Its Here -heathrow,parrot - Dead,h-5....

Were All Doomed.

 

[janner]

Its Here -heathrow,parrot - Dead,h-5....

Were All Doomed.

No, because it was found in quarantine.

 

[mobeyone]

No, because it was found in quarantine.

Question is - when was it quarintened?

I do think the government and any pharmacutical org. will look to create a climate of fear regardless given a potentially threatning situation with a view to profit and create order.

Not wanting to start a political debate etc but look at the Iraq war - this in time will be a text book study on how a govt. can manipulate and distort fact(s) ito any pretext for proposed action be that at war/support etc.

You can bet your last pound that the govt. will use this ideology in most of its decision making... control the situation through fear, make a profit through sale of vaccine.

 

[IanA2]

...nothing to do with David Hasslehoff's singing

Are you sure......???

 

[glojo]

We're all doomed, and I wonder how many of the folks that were wasting hours in long queues just to put an extra pint of petrol into their cars will now be in a queue for a vacine.

What are we all turning into? As has been suggested, I wonder what bad news is being released whilst idiots are panicing over this modern 'black death'.

So far I have found one incident where nine out of the ten of the so called dangerous terrorists that were arrested for being a threat to our national security last month have now been released on bail! Oh and we are also allowing our teachers to physically restrain violent students! (A huge U-turn that this government will be greatly embarrassed by)

For all those that fear they are going to die from this bird flu then may I suggest I assist in writing your will? I 'will' arrange to leave all your cars, money, jewellery, etc to a good cause

Sorry for being flippant, but I just feel we have far more chance of being killed on our roads and yet there is no hysteria over the monthly death figures!!!

Regards,
John

 

[mobeyone]

I think we have more chance of being killed in a local supermarket!!