Cancelled holiday

[markjay]

The 1% figure is plausible, if it applies to all those infected, given that we don't actually know (and never will for certain) how many people actually contracted the virus so far or at any point of time in future.

Obviously, of those who have been tested and confirmed positive, the percentage will be higher. And of those requiring hospitalisation, even higher... etc.

And when there aren't enough medical resources to actually treat all those who are critically ill (e.g. Italy), well......

The other issue is that surviving it is great, granted, but even so four weeks in intensive care with Pneumonia isn't great fun (I have only done this for one week, about 10 years ago, and I am most certainly not looking forward to a repeat...).

So yes, it's a worry, but there's not much we can do about it other than listen and obey the official guidelines and instructions as published by the NHS and the DHSC (which, for once, are actually sensible and rational).

 

[m80]

Interesting that those views that this had been an over hyped storm in a tea cup of 2 weeks ago have changed.
I spoke to one of the chaps I would have been boozing with this eve. Both had the opinion that it was some form of conspiracy. He was grateful that I had decided not to go t' pub.

Recognition is a good start to deferring the spread. I'm expecting the disappointment of pub attendance to be restricted in the future though.

 

[Steveml63]

Hi,
Italy’s death rate from COVID-19 is currently running at around 6.8% of reported cases and their ICU beds are simply overwhelmed.
Our schools have been shut for a week now and there is a report in one of our newspapers here - that they are likely to stay shut now until September!
It’s a numbers game - if more than 200,000 people get it in the UK then it’s game over, in simple terms.
Around 2.7% of people who get it need ICU - there are only 6000 ICU beds in the UK (and hospitals are currently running at 80% capacity generally)
I expect an announcement today that schools will shut in the UK for the foreseeable future - to protect the wider population.
Kids are hardly affected - so are likely to be the “super spreaders” that bring it home from school and pass it on to the rest of the family - including the elderly and vulnerable.
It’s going to get very messy soon - make no mistake about it!.
My wife is a front line A&E consultant (with a masters in Disaster Medicine) who has worked through Swine flu, Bird flu, SARS, MERS and now this.
Even she has a pretty pessimistic view of what is going to happen in countries that don’t take this really seriously - the UK being one of those countries!
It really is not time for “Keep Calm and Carry On” now - that is a very foolish mantra for this disease.
Cheers
Steve

 

[Bellow]

My guess is the schools will close a week early for Easter and return a week late if at all. That's something I hope will happen to reduce my exposure when the virus really gets a grip. Given that I work at one school, my daughter in law works at another, my grand daughter attends a third, the twins attend a nursery and last but not least my wife is in contact with hundreds of members of the public every day. Some of the more thoughtless customers put their money in their mouth before handing it over. And these are wealthy educated people. If it gets bad enough she will resign her job and I retire anyway at Easter.

The concern there is that parents will have to stay at home to look after their kids. A percentage will be employed by the NHS, the remainder missed from the economy.

 

[Bellow]

Hi,
Italy’s death rate from COVID-19 is currently running at around 6.8% of reported cases and their ICU beds are simply overwhelmed.
Our schools have been shut for a week now and there is a report in one of our newspapers here - that they are likely to stay shut now until September!
It’s a numbers game - if more than 200,000 people get it in the UK then it’s game over, in simple terms.
Around 2.7% of people who get it need ICU - there are only 6000 ICU beds in the UK (and hospitals are currently running at 80% capacity generally)
I expect an announcement today that schools will shut in the UK for the foreseeable future - to protect the wider population.
Kids are hardly affected - so are likely to be the “super spreaders” that bring it home from school and pass it on to the rest of the family - including the elderly and vulnerable.
It’s going to get very messy soon - make no mistake about it!.
My wife is a front line A&E consultant (with a masters in Disaster Medicine) who has worked through Swine flu, Bird flu, SARS, MERS and now this.
Even she has a pretty pessimistic view of what is going to happen in countries that don’t take this really seriously - the UK being one of those countries!
It really is not time for “Keep Calm and Carry On” now - that is a very foolish mantra for this disease.
Cheers
Steve

Re Italy. I read of a heavily pregnant woman being discharged from an Italian hospital free from the virus. Her husband, a 38 year old marathon runner remains in a critical condition. Anyone think they are fit and healthy enough to absolutely guarantee recovery if infected?

 

[whitenemesis]

a 38 year old marathon runner remains in a critical condition. Anyone think they are fit and healthy enough to absolutely guarantee recovery if infected?

Being 'fit' doesn't automatically mean one is 'healthy'. This runner may well have a compromised immune system or underlying health problems. How many people does one hear about, taking up sport, running to help get over or help with a chronic condition?
Also it's not unheard of for the super-fit to be at greater risk of heart and immune issues. Often their bodies don't carry the reserves to help fit illnesses

 

[markjay]

Being 'fit' doesn't automatically mean one is 'healthy'. This runner may well have a compromised immune system or underlying health problems. How many people does one hear about, taking up sport, running to help get over or help with a chronic condition?
Also it's not unheard of for the super-fit to be at greater risk of heart and immune issues. Often their bodies don't carry the reserves to help fit illnesses

...or he may have just been one of those poor sods who are badly hit by the virus in spite of being otherwise perfectly fit and healthy.

Even a statistic of 'one on a million' means that, err... it will happen to one person in a million.

Low probability isn't the same as no probability...

 

[190]

The concern there is that parents will have to stay at home to look after their kids. A percentage will be employed by the NHS, the remainder missed from the economy.

That's why if it happens it's likely to be done a week either side of the Easter holidays so that schools can be closed for a month with only 2 weeks additional disruption to parents. As with other countries schools will have to close eventually if it things get bad enough.

At our school and I'm sure many others we have in place a system that allows staff to assign work to pupils at home via the internet.

 

[Gollom]

Just got this from Easyjet - I am pleasantly surprised!


Given the unprecedented situation we’re all facing as a result of Covid-19, we wanted to provide an update on what this means for any travel plans you may have with easyJet.

We will continue to operate a flight schedule that ensures that those customers who still wish to travel can do so, where travel restrictions allow and in line with guidance from health authorities.

However, we understand there is uncertainty around travel at this time, so if you currently have a booking with us but would prefer not to fly then from tomorrow (13.03.2020), you can now change your flight online and we will waive the flight change fee. This applies to all existing and new bookings until further notice. Should there be a difference in fare you’ll need to pay this - however by waiving the change fee, we want to ensure you have more flexibility to amend your travel plans.

Where we’ve been required to cancel flights, customers will be able to transfer to an alternative flight free of charge or receive a refund. And where all flights have had to be cancelled due to local authority guidance – in Italy, for example – we are operating rescue flights to ensure passengers can return home.

To change your travel plans, please visit the Manage Bookings section on easyJet.com. This is not only the simplest way to make changes but, given the call volumes we are currently experiencing, this will also be the quickest.

Please note that if you do need to call the Contact Centre to make a change, there will be an administration charge of £5 applied per person, per flight – so we really do encourage you to make your changes online. Clearly, if you require special assistance when booking, this fee will be waived.

Keeping our aircraft clean

For customers concerned about exposure to Covid-19, we want to reassure you with the measures we’re taking to ensure the health and wellbeing of our customers onboard.

The air in the cabin is constantly filtered and refreshed every few minutes. A study commissioned by the European Aviation Safety Agency found that the cabin air quality is similar or better than what is experienced in normal indoor environments.

We maintain the highest standards of cleanliness by adhering to the guidelines set by EASA and the World Health Organisation (WHO). This involves our cabin crew cleaning the aircraft in line with industry standards after every single flight, and they always sort and safely dispose of any waste.

The cabin, toilets, seats and tray tables are thoroughly cleaned each night by professional cleaning teams at all of our airports. Additionally every aircraft goes through a regular deep clean by a team of specialist cleaners. Finally, soap and hand sanitizer is made available onboard for all customers and crew to use.

 

[Smart320]

Am returning to uk Gatwick airport tomorrow from Tunisia ( where they have a few cases of Coronavirus ) and decided that I did not fancy 6 hours on 3 trains to get home to Carmarthen, have return tickets already. suggested to my wife that we could get a taxi for about £275, no she said !! You can book an executive car E class or similar, am not travelling in some dodgy minicab , so £375 lighter am looking forwards to a comfy ride home. ( they did say however it might be a 5 series so hope my wife is minded to cross over to the other side f needed )

 

[Darrell]

Am returning to uk Gatwick airport tomorrow from Tunisia ( where they have a few cases of Coronavirus ) and decided that I did not fancy 6 hours on 3 trains to get home to Carmarthen, have return tickets already. suggested to my wife that we could get a taxi for about £275, no she said !! You can book an executive car E class or similar, am not travelling in some dodgy minicab , so £375 lighter am looking forwards to a comfy ride home. ( they did say however it might be a 5 series so hope my wife is minded to cross over to the other side f needed )

Let’s hope your driver, who no doubt mixes with all sorts of people/general public hasn’t been infected.

 

[whitenemesis]

Let’s hope your driver, who no doubt mixes with all sorts of people/general public hasn’t been infected.

And probably self-employed, so no work,no pay...

 

[Darrell]

And probably self-employed, so no work,no pay...

Hopefully he/she has got some put away for a rainy day.

 

[whitenemesis]

Italians keeping their spirits up..
valemercurii on Twitter

 

[whitenemesis]

As are the nurses and doctors in Iran (keep in mind women are arrested/prosecuted for dancing in Iran..)
Negar Mortazavi نگار مرتضوی on Twitter

 

[whitenemesis]

"'Behave like you already have the virus'"
A very interesting interview, explaining the pros and cons of school closures, (the biggest of which would seem to be having to enlist the help of those most at risk of the virus i.e. grandparents) herd immunity and the ongoing effects of COVID-19

Coronavirus updates: Markets volatile as closures widen - BBC News

 

[Deleted member 113659]

Hopefully he/she has got some put away for a rainy day.

Only in an ideal self employed world. Unfortunately many can not create a rainy day nest egg.

 

[Darrell]

 

[whitenemesis]

Spot the difference?

 

[Darrell]

Google HQ site at St Pancras has been shut Something to do with Coronavirus.