Covid-19 Discussion - STRICTLY NO POLITICS!

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This can explain why at current we respond to COVID-19 with measures affecting the entire population, and why an immunity passport will help 'release' from some restrictions those who are at reduced risk to transmit the virus:


I only scanned quickly through the full article and didn't find what I was looking for. If this is an accurate analysis then for me the biggest implication is the inference it has on the mechanism of infection. If 59% of infections are due to people who have no symptoms or have not yet developed symptoms then they are by definition not obviously ill i.e. not coughing. If these people are able to spread the infection without coughing then it goes a long way to explain just how contagious this virus really is.
 
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Big Janner

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As the OP I've followed the thread with interest.
Not as regularly as I would have liked, but have managed to keep abreast.

2 points.
I seriously underestimated the depth of discussion, my somewhat simplistic question would start.
Thanks for taking the time to generate such a plethora of great information.

Some days ago, I noticed that the thread title had changed, with; Covid-19 Discussion - No Politics!, being added.
I guess this is the work of a/the, moderator, but, I received no pm or other communication about it.
I mention this as a moderator on another motor forum, where we try to clarify for the simple, why an action has been taken.
In addition, I think that the forumites have done damned well to keep to the correct side of the divide, since the no politics note went up.
 

merc85

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From the Government website
Quote
SIREN study leaders are clear this first report provides no evidence towards the antibody or other immune responses from COVID-19 vaccines, nor should any conclusions to be drawn on their effectiveness. The SIREN study will consider vaccine responses later this year.

 

Petrol Pete

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We keep talking about lockdowns etc , but what is the point ? Brazil have a new strain but flights directly from Brazil land daily in the UK and the government are 'waiting for evidence that the new strain is worse before they act'. What evidence ? Clinical . or dead people ? and for how long will they wait.?

4 people I know (all over 60) travelled independently to Cuba on Christmas eve and have been all over the tourist trail , they return to the UK tomorrow. None have signs of covid (yet), in fact official figures from Cuba show extremely low cases and death out there.

But since Christmas day and yesterday the number of reported cases in Cuba went up over 300% (138 to 431) ...tourist bought it in 🤷‍♂️ ..? maybe. Tourists hang out with other tourists . Four of them are coming to my 'neck of the woods tomorrow, will they be self isolating ? doubt it.
 

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We keep talking about lockdowns etc , but what is the point ? Brazil have a new strain but flights directly from Brazil land daily in the UK and the government are 'waiting for evidence that the new strain is worse before they act'. What evidence ? Clinical . or dead people ? and for how long will they wait.?

4 people I know (all over 60) travelled independently to Cuba on Christmas eve and have been all over the tourist trail , they return to the UK tomorrow. None have signs of covid (yet), in fact official figures from Cuba show extremely low cases and death out there.

But since Christmas day and yesterday the number of reported cases in Cuba went up over 300% (138 to 431) ...tourist bought it in 🤷‍♂️ ..? maybe. Tourists hang out with other tourists . Four of them are coming to my 'neck of the woods tomorrow, will they be self isolating ? doubt it.
Petrol Pete makes a very good point and deals with the topic which I have constantly referred to-- that is the importance of time shift in relation to all covid discussions/action . Given the incubation period for covid 19 appears to be anything from 6 to 14 days any consideration of anti-covid precautions effectiveness in relation to disease incidence has to be considered as to what they were 14 days ago. Pointless harping on about today's figures in relation to today's precautions /lockdown/facemasks et cetera we are only going to have an indication of today's precautions efficacy 14 days hence not today. In relation to Brazil flight restrictions it's a bit like saying to an invading army attacking a Castle--- no the drawbridge and portcullis will not be drawn up / dropped today but in three days time- this will allow the necessary forms be printed------FFS! The answer to when FLIGHT restrictions from new covid strain areas should be implemented is YESTERDAY- we can worry about the forms later!
 

Petrol Pete

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^^^ Just as with the last travel 'tightening up' restrictions , something about 72 hours , then telling all of those overseas that it would be bought into force in 3 days time . Thereby giving everyone overseas 72 hours to rush back to the UK before the 72 hour thing came in ......:wallbash:

And so it goes.
 

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Read on the BBC website this morning that some were questioning whether the stay at home rules for England were clear. Do the public and indeed those tasked with enforcing rules understand them? Apparently cycling on your own is fine. Ok by me.

I then proceeded to look into exactly how clear the rules are and found, thanks to the dilligence of a legal brain - Adam Wagner, that since March 2020 the Covid-19 Lockdown Regulations have in fact been changed 65 times in the last 10 months.

 
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Scooby_Doo

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I wasn't questioning the figures , it was your twist on figures as usual. I noted your previous comments regarding bank holidays and was well aware of the effect they have on deaths reported and I was under the impression that there have always been two bank holidays over christmas , irrespective of which week they fall in. So if we had one bank holiday in both weeks and aggregate the excess deaths over the two weeks this means that for week 52 & 53 there were an average of 2750 excess deaths each week in comparison to the previous 5 years. Do you agree with my take on the ONS statistics ?

It is more valid to draw a straight line from week 50 (not a Bank Holiday week) all the way over to week 2 (not a Bank holiday week) the following year. The dip in deaths is due to reporting, people still die at the same seasonal rate on bank holidays.
Something I overlooked , week 53 has two bank holidays so the drop in deaths from week 52 was to be expected. It will be interesting to see the figures for week1 - 2021
 

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  • There is a moderate geographic correlations between BCG (a turberculosis vaccine) use and Covid-19 death rates: countries with a long history of BCG use now have substantially lower Covid-19 death rates than countries with shorter histories or non-use of BCG.

Is the UK not one of the countries with a history of BCG use - with vaccinations of 14 year olds being the norm by the late 50s. It programme wound down from when - the late 90s?

So how does that fit - if the majority were being vaccinated at 14 between say 1960 and 2000 that would mean people between 34 and 74 would have higher immunity?

However there are complications - the UK's population has grown signifiicantly since the early 1990s and that growth includes the loss of some of those who would have been vaccinated - so depending where incomers have arrived from that may have had some effect in diluting the number of people in the population who had BCG vaccinations.
 

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Is the UK not one of the countries with a history of BCG use - with vaccinations of 14 year olds being the norm by the late 50s. It programme wound down from when - the late 90s?

So how does that fit - if the majority were being vaccinated at 14 between say 1960 and 2000 that would mean people between 34 and 74 would have higher immunity?

However there are complications - the UK's population has grown signifiicantly since the early 1990s and that growth includes the loss of some of those who would have been vaccinated - so depending where incomers have arrived from that may have had some effect in diluting the number of people in the population who had BCG vaccinations.
Yes and i still have the scar to prove it.

Immunity or a treatment? Comparison of death rates between higher income countries apparently.

Interesting study.
 
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SW18

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That's because Ferguson says what BBC wants to hear
In this case, though, Ferguson is right - he’s only saying what the stats tell us anyway. Perhaps the BBC’s editorial rules prevent it interpreting and commenting on the stats but instead requires it to cite an ‘expert’. And he’s just the one they unthinkingly keep on speed dial?

I’m sure it’s common for journos to have favourite sources to quote. My employer was once engulfed in a long-running scandal that plagued the company for a while. Every time the FT ran a story about it, they included comments from a well-known city analyst, who was always bang on the money and very insightful. After some months of this the company hired the guy to be head of investor relations!
 

ChipChop

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In this case, though, Ferguson is right - he’s only saying what the stats tell us anyway. Perhaps the BBC’s editorial rules prevent it interpreting and commenting on the stats but instead requires it to cite an ‘expert’. And he’s just the one they unthinkingly keep on speed dial?

I’m sure it’s common for journos to have favourite sources to quote. My employer was once engulfed in a long-running scandal that plagued the company for a while. Every time the FT ran a story about it, they included comments from a well-known city analyst, who was always bang on the money and very insightful. After some months of this the company hired the guy to be head of investor relations!
Ferguson is right? A bold statement.
 

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Even if he is right this time, I just don't want to see Ferguson on the TV after the damage he has done in the past. He simply isn't a credible or convincing presence compared to other scientists. If the BBC can't see that then they are worse than I thought.
 

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In this case, though, Ferguson is right - he’s only saying what the stats tell us anyway. Perhaps the BBC’s editorial rules prevent it interpreting and commenting on the stats but instead requires it to cite an ‘expert’. And he’s just the one they unthinkingly keep on speed dial?
That's been the pattern in other media outlets.

Basically he seems to have got himself back ino the position of being the media go-to guy while not actually offering any comment or opinion that a reasonably informed member of the public could offer up.
 

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So Ferguson has nothing useful or interesting to say, he is just a mouthpiece for statistics ..

how the mighty have fallen 😂
 

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Cases -
08/01 - 14/01 = 302,786 ⬇️
01/01 - 07/01 = 347,355 ⬆️
24/12 - 31/12 = 300,193 ⬆️
16/12 - 23/12 = 236,274 ⬆️
08/12 - 15/12 = 137,875

Friday 14th January CFR is 2.64%
Friday 7th January CFR was 2.72%
Friday 1st January CFR was 2.92%
Tuesday 29th December CFR was 3.05%
Sunday 27th December CFR was 3.12%
Tuesday 22nd December CFR was 3.24%
Sunday 20th December CFR was 3.30%
Saturday 19th December CFR was 3.35%
Monday 14th December CFR was 3.47%
Saturday 12th December CFR was 3.51%
Tuesday 1st December CFR was 3.59%
Wednesday 25th November CFR was 3.63%
Saturday 21st November CFR was 3.68%
Wednesday18th November CFR was 3.74%
Saturday 14th November CFR was 3.89%
Monday 9th November CFR was 4.11%
Friday 6th November CFR was 4.28%
Tuesday 3rd November CFR was 4.45%
Sunday 1st November CFR was 4.60%
Thursday 29th Oct CFR was 4.85%
Tuesday 27th Oct CFR was 4.94%
Sunday 25th Oct CFR was 5.24%
Tuesday 20th Oct CFR was 5.9%
Friday 16th Oct CFR was 6.3%.
Monday 12th Oct CFR was 6.78%.
Thursday 8th Oct CFR was 7.8%.
Monday 5th Oct CFR was 8.2%.



 
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