Covid-19 Discussion

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Case numbers/ positive PCR test numbers...

08/01 - 14/01 = 302,786 lockdown 3 (06/01/21 - 02/02/21 or 31/03/21)
01/01 - 07/01 = 347,355 new 4 tier system
24/12 - 31/12 = 300,193 new 4 tier system
16/12 - 23/12 = 236,274 tier system (4 levels from 20/12/20)
08/12 - 15/12 = 137,875 tier system
01/12 - 07/12 = 94,873 tier system (3 tier system re-introduced 02/12/20)
24/11 - 30/11 = 90,862 lockdown 2
17/11 - 23/11 = 116,763 lockdown 2
10/11 - 16/11 = 156,906 lockdown 2
03/11 - 09/11 = 139,481 lockdown 2 (05/11/20 - 02/12/20)
27/10 - 02/11 = 136,290 tier system 3 levels
20/10 - 26/10 = 132,149 tier system 3 levels
13/10 - 19/10 = 106,291 tier system 3 levels (introduced 14/10/20)
06/10 - 12/10 = 87,573 local regulations
29/09 - 05/10 = 60,603 local regulations
22/09 - 28/09 = 41,728 local regulations
15/09 - 21/09 = 24,817 local regulations
08/09 - 14/09 = 18,563 local regulations
 
ChipChop said:
Case numbers/ positive PCR test numbers...

08/01 - 14/01 = 302,786 lockdown 3 (06/01/21 - 02/02/21 or 31/03/21)
01/01 - 07/01 = 347,355 new 4 tier system
24/12 - 31/12 = 300,193 new 4 tier system
16/12 - 23/12 = 236,274 tier system (4 levels from 20/12/20)
08/12 - 15/12 = 137,875 tier system
01/12 - 07/12 = 94,873 tier system (3 tier system re-introduced 02/12/20)
24/11 - 30/11 = 90,862 lockdown 2
17/11 - 23/11 = 116,763 lockdown 2
10/11 - 16/11 = 156,906 lockdown 2
03/11 - 09/11 = 139,481 lockdown 2 (05/11/20 - 02/12/20)
27/10 - 02/11 = 136,290 tier system 3 levels
20/10 - 26/10 = 132,149 tier system 3 levels
13/10 - 19/10 = 106,291 tier system 3 levels (introduced 14/10/20)
06/10 - 12/10 = 87,573 local regulations
29/09 - 05/10 = 60,603 local regulations
22/09 - 28/09 = 41,728 local regulations
15/09 - 21/09 = 24,817 local regulations
08/09 - 14/09 = 18,563 local regulations
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In view of the differing regulations taking roughly 1 to 2 weeks to have a measurable effect, I'm not too sure that these figures tell us much other than that the tier systems obviously appear less effective than lockdowns in reducing case numbers. What's not measurable is the influence that different tiers and lockdowns have on other aspects of our lives. Also, without knowing the number of tests carried out it's it's difficult to know how much the differing case numbers are simply due to changes in test numbers.

What's your take on all these figures that you posted CC?
 
knighterrant said:
In view of the differing regulations taking roughly 1 to 2 weeks to have a measurable effect, I'm not too sure that these figures tell us much other than that the tier systems obviously appear less effective than lockdowns in reducing case numbers. What's not measurable is the influence that different tiers and lockdowns have on other aspects of our lives. Also, without knowing the number of tests carried out it's it's difficult to know how much the differing case numbers are simply due to changes in test numbers.

What's your take on all these figures that you posted CC?
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All good points. I am looking for the number of weekly tests carried out to work out the % of PCR positives.

For example for the first week in 2021 (31/12/20 - 06/01/21) 388,037 people tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) at least once (people are tested more than once in a week, such as in a healthcare setting). How this figure relates to the previous figure of 347,355 (01/01/21 - 07/01/21) apart from date discrepancy i cannot be sure.

2,577,806 people were tested at least once between 31 December 2020 and 6 January 2021 for COVID-19.

So that is a PCR positive test rate of 15%.

This data is from NHS Test & Trace so only represents those who are symptomatic and involved testing from pillar 1 (testing in hospitals and outbreak locations), pillar 2 (national swab testing) or pillar 4 (prevalence studies).

This should give a better idea of the effectiveness of physical interventions, recognising there are many other factors at play as well.
 
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The chinese equilivant of porton down is within a short distance of the supposed wet market !! theres only 2 possible options . the market as they say or the Lab ? apparently the World Health Team have arrived in Wuhan but it says they will not have access to everything they need to see !!
 
ChipChop said:
Case numbers/ positive PCR test numbers...

08/01 - 14/01 = 302,786 lockdown 3 (06/01/21 - 02/02/21 or 31/03/21)
01/01 - 07/01 = 347,355 new 4 tier system
24/12 - 31/12 = 300,193 new 4 tier system
16/12 - 23/12 = 236,274 tier system (4 levels from 20/12/20)
08/12 - 15/12 = 137,875 tier system
01/12 - 07/12 = 94,873 tier system (3 tier system re-introduced 02/12/20)
24/11 - 30/11 = 90,862 lockdown 2
17/11 - 23/11 = 116,763 lockdown 2
10/11 - 16/11 = 156,906 lockdown 2
03/11 - 09/11 = 139,481 lockdown 2 (05/11/20 - 02/12/20)
27/10 - 02/11 = 136,290 tier system 3 levels
20/10 - 26/10 = 132,149 tier system 3 levels
13/10 - 19/10 = 106,291 tier system 3 levels (introduced 14/10/20)
06/10 - 12/10 = 87,573 local regulations
29/09 - 05/10 = 60,603 local regulations
22/09 - 28/09 = 41,728 local regulations
15/09 - 21/09 = 24,817 local regulations
08/09 - 14/09 = 18,563 local regulations
Click to expand...
Conclusion ?
 
ChipChop said:
All good points. I am looking for the number of weekly tests carried out to work out the % of PCR positives.

For example for the first week in 2021 (31/12/20 - 06/01/21) 388,037 people tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) at least once (people are tested more than once in a week, such as in a healthcare setting). How this figure relates to the previous figure of 347,355 (01/01/21 - 07/01/21) apart from date discrepancy i cannot be sure.

2,577,806 people were tested at least once between 31 December 2020 and 6 January 2021 for COVID-19.

So that is a PCR positive test rate of 15%.

This data is from NHS Test & Trace so only represents those who are symptomatic and involved testing from pillar 1 (testing in hospitals and outbreak locations), pillar 2 (national swab testing) or pillar 4 (prevalence studies).

This should give a better idea of the effectiveness of physical interventions, recognising there are many other factors at play as well.
Click to expand...
Conclusion ? Apart from PCR positive test %
 
bayman57 said:
The chinese equilivant of porton down is within a short distance of the supposed wet market !! theres only 2 possible options . the market as they say or the Lab ? apparently the World Health Team have arrived in Wuhan but it says they will not have access to everything they need to see !!
Click to expand...

The Chinese claim that the virus was already spreading elsewhere in the world during 2019, and brought into China in November. That's their version of events, anyway.
 
ChipChop said:
...This data is from NHS Test & Trace so only represents those who are symptomatic and involved testing from pillar 1 (testing in hospitals and outbreak locations), pillar 2 (national swab testing) or pillar 4 (prevalence studies)....
Click to expand...

It's crucial to know the percentage of each pillar in the total count for each period. Each pillar will have different typical positive ratio, so the overall positive ratio will be severely affected by any change in the percentage of each type.

You might therefore see the overall positive ratio go up or down during certain periods simply as result of having more entries from a certain pillar etc, I.e. even if nothing has actually changed in the real world.
 
markjay said:
The Chinese claim that the virus was already spreading elsewhere in the world during 2019, and brought into China in November. That's their version of events, anyway.
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Everyone I work with, myself included think we all had covid back in December 2019/january 2020.
We all travel all the time and are all tested regular now, and not one of us(Germans, Romanians, Polish, Danish, Irish, Scottish, Swedish and others) has caught it.
 
Cabriomat said:
Everyone I work with, myself included think we all had covid back in December 2019/january 2020.
We all travel all the time and are all tested regular now, and not one of us(Germans, Romanians, Polish, Danish, Irish, Scottish, Swedish and others) has caught it.
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But how accurate are the tests..... Positive and Negative...

It's not like the Government uses the results to base there restrictions on is it :crazy:

I can't help think its pointless until a proven way exists to test whether you genuinely have Covid or not.

A employee's wife got tested at Work which came back positive no symptoms at all, Signed off for 10 days £500 thankyou from the Government only to then Get Covid 3 weeks later this time with Symptoms, although this time no £500.

Also out of coincidence :rolleyes: she had the flu jab around a week before the 1st test.

But hey lets crack on Ruining the economy and killing a few more people who have critical illnesses, not to mention the suicides.
 
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Cabriomat said:
Everyone I work with, myself included think we all had covid back in December 2019/january 2020.
We all travel all the time and are all tested regular now, and not one of us(Germans, Romanians, Polish, Danish, Irish, Scottish, Swedish and others) has caught it.
Click to expand...
I had the flu or something similar on Christmas day 2019 , cough , fever , high temperature and shortness of breath and took me three weeks plus to get over it and lost about 10 lbs in weight. I rarely ever get a cold let alone flu , convinced it was Covid or similar strain. I haven't been so ill in my life. The only thing I can't explain is that my wife didn't catch it so who knows what it was.
 
Scooby_Doo said:
I had the flu or something similar on Christmas day 2019 , cough , fever , high temperature and shortness of breath and took me three weeks plus to get over it and lost about 10 lbs in weight. I rarely ever get a cold let alone flu , convinced it was Covid or similar strain. I haven't been so ill in my life. The only thing I can't explain is that my wife didn't catch it so who knows what it was.
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Ditto recently my Wifes good friend, Her daughter 19 got it, was ill, tested was told it was "Covid", Yet none of the other 5 people in the same household got it.
 
bayman57 said:
The chinese equilivant of porton down is within a short distance of the supposed wet market !! theres only 2 possible options . the market as they say or the Lab ? apparently the World Health Team have arrived in Wuhan but it says they will not have access to everything they need to see !!
Click to expand...

Wuhan has two labs where we know bats and humans interacted. One is the Institute of Virology, eight miles from the wet market; the other is the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, barely 300 yards from the market. While the Virology institute has the highest international level of containment facilities the Center for Disease Control and Prevention had several degrees of containment less. Its been speculated that it may have been working with unsafe containment levels for the work they were doing.
 
merc85 said:
But how accurate are the tests..... Positive and Negative...
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Romanians, Polish, Germans, Swedish etc etc

They can't all have a pathetic test system?

Not one of us or any of or colleuges worldwide has had a positive test, we've all been travelling throughout this pandemic, from Australia to America, Asia, Europe and Scandinavia, all milling about and mingling.

We've all been getting tests since roughly August last year.

Not one case, we assume we've all had it.

And this also includes the numerous other companies we work alongside.... Same results
 
merc85 said:
Ditto recently my Wifes good friend, Her daughter 19 got it, was ill, tested was told it was "Covid", Yet none of the other 5 people in the same household got it.
Click to expand...
Non ditto. Lady next door got it, was ill, tested positive for Covid. All three of her daughters (aged between 14 and 19) got it within a week. All normally extremely fit and with no existing conditions.
 
Cabriomat said:
Romanians, Polish, Germans, Swedish etc etc

They can't all have a pathetic test system?

Not one of us or any of or colleuges worldwide has had a positive test, we've all been travelling throughout this pandemic, from Australia to America, Asia, Europe and Scandinavia, all milling about and mingling.

We've all been getting tests since roughly August last year.

Not one case, we assume we've all had it.

And this also includes the numerous other companies we work alongside.... Same results
Click to expand...

I don't suppose anyone gave you an antibody test....?
 
markjay said:
I don't suppose anyone gave you an antibody test....?
Click to expand...
I haven’t had my vaccine yet, but I am taking part in a Covid-19 antibody testing research study.
 
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