Covid-19 Discussion
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grober
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Some interesting discussion on the BBC World at One today.
The World This Weekend - 29/03/2020 - BBC Sounds
Of particular interest the subject of the consequences of economic shutdown versus disease casualties from about 18 minutes on. Historically, contrary to the previously proposed idea that acting too precipitously imposing an economic shutdown would have greater economic consequences in the longer term the evidence would appear to indicate that strict early emergency intervention is best and actually hastens economic recovery?
Of the developed countries in the west the UK and the USA are described as "behind the curve" in terms of their emergency response to Covid-19.
Latest figures are here:- GOVERNMENT RESPONSE STRINGENCY INDEX
Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker
The World This Weekend - 29/03/2020 - BBC Sounds
Of particular interest the subject of the consequences of economic shutdown versus disease casualties from about 18 minutes on. Historically, contrary to the previously proposed idea that acting too precipitously imposing an economic shutdown would have greater economic consequences in the longer term the evidence would appear to indicate that strict early emergency intervention is best and actually hastens economic recovery?
Of the developed countries in the west the UK and the USA are described as "behind the curve" in terms of their emergency response to Covid-19.
Latest figures are here:- GOVERNMENT RESPONSE STRINGENCY INDEX
Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker
I replied on your last post but I said posts, that's plural. You have such a lot of negativity in your recent CV posts that I think I will just have to stop reading what you post from now on.
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Well, a short steep curve will hurt in terms of mortality but will also ensure that the hardship period is short and economic recovery comes quickly.Some interesting discussion on the BBC World at One today.
The World This Weekend - 29/03/2020 - BBC Sounds
Of particular interest the subject of the consequences of economic shutdown versus disease casualties from about 18 minutes on. Historically, contrary to the previously proposed idea that acting too precipitously imposing an economic shutdown would have greater economic consequences in the longer term the evidence would appear to indicate that strict early emergency intervention is best and actually hastens economic recovery?
Of the developed countries in the west the UK and the USA are described as "behind the curve" in terms of their emergency response to Covid-19.
Latest figures are here:- GOVERNMENT RESPONSE STRINGENCY INDEX
Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker
A long flat curve means less people die, but the economic recovery starts at a much later stage......
grober
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I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to say here? History teaches early intervention both flattens the curve [mortality rate]and reduces its duration[ the economic hit] according to Ngaire Woods* at 19-52. Its a win /win situation not an either /or situation ??
* Ngaire Woods
she also goes on to say at 21-28 " The simple lesson for Britain is- Listen to the WHO, Listen to what successful countries are doing. Don't try to build a sophisticated model in a crisis!"
Seems a plain enough message to me.
How (and How Not) to Battle Flu: A Tale of 23 Cities
This article has some chilling similarities/lessons to be learned and again early strict intervention was the key
The 1918 Influenza Pandemic
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grober
MB Master
grober
MB Master
One handed accordion playing followed by 2 handed accordion playing. generators/ventilators -same thing isn't it? as someone comments if a movie script writer submitted this screenplay it would be rejected as unbelievable
generators/ventilators -same thing isn't it? as someone comments if a movie script writer submitted this screenplay it would be rejected as unbelievable
When all this is over I wonder wether statisticians will be able to make a comparison to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. We have to bear in mind that in 1918 there was no NHS and therefore no critical care facilities ie. ventilators etc. Obviously without the advance medical care of developed countries many more people would have died to date and sadly even with these medical care facilities many more people will unfortunately pass in the weeks and months ahead.
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Undoubtedly comparisons will be made, but of what ultimate value they turn out to be is moot.
Something that gets lost in the sea of data that is fuelling so many news stories is that different countries are testing different sub-sets of their population, some of the tests themselves are unreliable, and also there is no internationally accepted standard definition for cause of death when there are multiple contributory factors (even if there was the capacity to make clinical post-mortem assessments when the death rate is overwhelming healthcare facilities). All this adds up to Bad Data.
The bottom line is that pretty much every statistic we are fed regarding COVID-19 has a large associated margin of error. That makes forecasting mortality rates and planning responses incredibly difficult, so there have been and will continue to be policy mis-steps that those gifted with 20-20 hindsight will seize upon to claim incompetence or worse. The media (with some rare exceptions) seem to feel the need to present things as definites, so they ignore the bounds of error margins and report what suits their agenda.
In some respects I'm reminded of an MD I worked for many years ago who barked at the IT Manager, "I want all the facts, and I want them on one sheet of paper". The IT Manager's response was totally honest: "Do you want all the facts, or do you want one sheet of paper?", but that didn't go down well...
Dryce
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Age and gender demographics have also changed.
Covid hits 70+ and males disproportionately.
In 1918/1919 the population would have been younger and predominately more female.
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I can see a Conspiracy Theory in the making here, that COVID-19 is an act of revenge by the #MeToo movement....
Wow.
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10 psi punch coming!!
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There's no shortage of mindless vandals out there it seems.
Might be a good move to put this in the F1 thread....
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This 'theory' would deny any transmission of infection between humans.
The 5g effect, that is stated in the link to take 6 months, wouldn't have time on the cruise ships.
I suffered 12 minutes of it, that's enough.
The 5g effect, that is stated in the link to take 6 months, wouldn't have time on the cruise ships.
I suffered 12 minutes of it, that's enough.
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The obvious issue with the 5G / Coronavirus conspiracy theory is that there's no correlation between the two.
Countries that have not yet rolled-out 5G suffer just as much as those who did. Iran, for example, has no 5G, and yet has over 44,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths.
The country with the largest 5G network in the world - Hong Kong - hardly had any Coronavirus cases at all, with less than 1,000 confirmed, and only single-digit deaths.
Additionally, at the early stages of its spread, each country tracked confirmed cases and it was easy to show person-to-person transmission, while no-one was infected without having been in contact with a confirmed person.
And, as m80 pointed-out, Coronavirus infections are rife on cruise ships that have no 5G.
How this blatantly false rumor still lives-on on the Internet is beyond me.
Countries that have not yet rolled-out 5G suffer just as much as those who did. Iran, for example, has no 5G, and yet has over 44,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths.
The country with the largest 5G network in the world - Hong Kong - hardly had any Coronavirus cases at all, with less than 1,000 confirmed, and only single-digit deaths.
Additionally, at the early stages of its spread, each country tracked confirmed cases and it was easy to show person-to-person transmission, while no-one was infected without having been in contact with a confirmed person.
And, as m80 pointed-out, Coronavirus infections are rife on cruise ships that have no 5G.
How this blatantly false rumor still lives-on on the Internet is beyond me.
grober
MB Master
ANDREW CUOMO Governor of NEW YORK's broadcasts are proving more popular with the people of the USA than the President's. [ even among republicans] not hard to see why
Cuomo wins praise for 'wisdom' amid coronavirus crisis as Trump blusters
here's a sample
Cuomo wins praise for 'wisdom' amid coronavirus crisis as Trump blusters
here's a sample
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