COVID-19 ... impact on death rates

[BTB 500]

Mentioned previously in another OT thread, but for a while I've been downloading the weekly data on total deaths (all causes) in England & Wales (sorry Scotland & NI) published by The Office For National Statistics (ONS). Comparing 2020 with past years gives (IMHO) the most accurate picture of the impact that COVID is having. The data obviously lags a bit (latest figures are for week ending May 22nd, week 21), but here's 2020 compared with the previous 5 years :



The week ending April 3rd (week 14) was when things started to go pear-shaped. The blip at week 19 this year is due to the VE Day holiday delaying registrations, but you can see the rate slowly dropping back towards more usual levels (although currently still 24% above the average for the previous 5 years). Overall 60,400 more people have died in 2020 than during the same period in 2019 - a sobering figure, but of course some will have had other serious conditions that they would have succumbed to later in the year anyway. On that basis we might expect the death rate to eventually drop below previous years, before coming back to 'normal'. So I think it will be some time before we know the true impact.

If anyone else wants to have a play the data is here:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[m80]

Yep, far more sobering than the screwed figures we get in the press.

The increased death rate might well have been moderated by the lesser road deaths and such due to lockdown.
My thinking is that for many behaviour is returning to pre lockdown styles. The 2nd wave might show itself in a few weeks.
2nd wave would likely have people believing that even if it was undesirable that it would have the silver lining of this being done with. They won't envisage a 3rd wave and 4th....

 

[BTB 500]

The increased death rate might well have been moderated by the lesser road deaths and such due to lockdown.

I was talking to a colleague based in Bangalore about this - apparently in India there are almost 300,000 traffic related deaths a year, so the impact of lockdown has been significant. But in the GB (excluding NI) it's only about 1,800 a year, so 35 a week on average:

Reported Road Casualties Great Britain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So even if those stopped completely due to lockdown (unlikely) it wouldn't make a huge difference. Similar with work and leisure related deaths, I would guess. And those would probably be offset by more accidents in the home/garden anyway!

 

[st13phil]

but of course some will have had other serious conditions that they would have succumbed to later in the year anyway. On that basis we might expect the death rate to eventually drop below previous years, before coming back to 'normal'.

This is why those who study such things for a living (i.e. not the sensationalist media) all say that we need to look at this pandemic 2, 3 or even 5 years down the line to get a truer picture of its effect on mortality. And I say that while fully accepting that everyone who has lost a loved one due to COVID-19 is dealing with premature grief.

 

[markjay]

This is why those who study such things for a living (i.e. not the sensationalist media) all say that we need to look at this pandemic 2, 3 or even 5 years down the line to get a truer picture of its effect on mortality. And I say that while fully accepting that everyone who has lost a loved one due to COVID-19 is dealing with premature grief.

As above.

And you need to add to this the effect of 'harvesting', i.e. elderly patients who's death was brought forward by COVID-19, though it is not clear what this entails - how many days, weeks, or months qualify?

In any event, we really need to look at the figures over a longer period of times, instead of comparing single months.

As Prof Whitty put it: "All-cause mortality, after the pandemic is over, compared with previous years" - this is the only meaningful (though not 'accurate' by any stretch of the imagination) statistic we'll ever get regarding the COVID-19 death toll.

 

[Harrythedog]

Comparisons for previous years up to 2015

Highest number of excess winter deaths since 1999/2000 - Office for National Statistics

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Nice to read a more thoughtful interpretation of these numbers.

Right from the beginning, I've been referencing the the 48,000 excess winter deaths in 2000 and 44,000 in 2015. Compared to those, the Covid number alone doesn't seem so bad. (Bear in mind that the full 60k number includes the Wrinklies we bumped off by moving covid into Care homes, as well as some people who've effectively been bumped off by the lockdown - dying of other causes but due to lack of attention, panic, suicide, or whatever.)

One comment that I would add re "the next wave" is that traditionally respiratory problems / complications are a "wintry" thing. We cast these issues off more easily in the Summer, so expect a next wave in the Autumn or Winter, rather than straightaway.

And we still have no idea of how much Covid has already been absorbed quietly over the rest of the population. We may get pleasant or unpleasant news on this when the antibody tests become generally available. It "may" be that the younger generation in particular, really don't have that much to worry about. The over 70's, diabetics and the obese? That's a different matter - but then we knew that THEY were the people who really needed shielding back in February.

On the other hand, there's a massive, massive NHS backlog of consultations and treatments that may take years (sic) to overcome.

 

[markjay]

I ma just waiting for someone to super-impose this graph over the UK 5g towers roll-out data............

 

[Swotty]

I ma just waiting for someone to super-impose this graph over the UK 5g towers roll-out data............

Here you are:

EE rolls out 5G to 21 new locations across UK

BT-owned mobile operator EE has switched on its 5G network in a further 21 towns and cities. This brings the number of UK areas it serves with the next-generation wireless network up to 71.

eandt.theiet.org

Sorry ... couldn't resist it!

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Yep, far more sobering than the screwed figures we get in the press.

The increased death rate might well have been moderated by the lesser road deaths and such due to lockdown.
My thinking is that for many behaviour is returning to pre lockdown styles. The 2nd wave might show itself in a few weeks.
2nd wave would likely have people believing that even if it was undesirable that it would have the silver lining of this being done with. They won't envisage a 3rd wave and 4th....

According to the film of the same name, it’s the Fifth Wave which really bites.Every time I hear the phrase “second wave“ I can’t help but think of “fifth wave” even though it has nothing to do with a virus.

 

[BTB 500]

Updated graph with data up to June 5th. Another blip in week 22 due to the May bank holiday but the 2020 weekly death rate continues to drop towards the average of the previous 5 years. Overall, 62,500 more deaths so far in 2020 than during the same period last year.

 

[Deleted member 65149]

As Phil said earlier, it's going to be very many years before a better picture evolves on all this. And by then I suspect most people will have cast it aside as a distant memory so take no notice. But I also suspect that it'll never be possible to determine for certain which of the very many approaches to handling C-19 was the best - there are far too many variables. The graphs show that there have undoubtedly been more far more deaths than usual in the last 10 weeks, but it's impossible to ever know what differences there would have been with earlier/later/stricter/more-relaxed lockdown.

 

[Mattns]

While the additional death rate is the ultimate and most painful outcome of Covid, the negative impact on family life and society in the wider sense is huge. I see the change in my grandchildren already, with ages 2,3 and 6 the sudden change in social interactions and constant bombardment of media reports on tv has taken it's toll on their mental state, I hope it's temporary and am thankful this is the only impact we have suffered.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Picking up on Mattns point, FB gives us some interesting insights into how different people are coping with all this. Huge differences between families. Some kids really not doing any kind of education at all, while nerdy types are grasping the self-absorbed study with both hands. And then there's real issues around self management (late starts / late gaming), and a lot of drinking and eating going on.

It's going to take years to try to catch up for the loss of education, social interaction and sports for the young uns.

And who knows what will happen to the adults? I can see a lot of older adults getting into trouble over their inactivity and weight gain, let alone the people who aren't going anywhere near the NHS because of Covid19 risk.

"Working from Home" also sounds great, but it's a rare cove who can run without social interaction and the discipline of working to set hours without disruption. Some will win, for sure, but the majority won't be great at it. (Mind you, there's more to life than work)

 

[BTB 500]

Latest ONS data shows that total deaths in England & Wales for week 25 (ending June 19th) were below the average for the same week in the previous 5 years. Will be interesting to see whether the packed beaches in last week's heatwave have any effect in the weeks to come!

 

[LTD]

It could be said that people will either be :

Hunks : Exercise-focused during lockdown
Chunks : chill out and enjoy a tasty snack
Drunks : Yeah !! I’ll just have another - I’m not working tomorrow !

 

[John N]

It could be said that people will either be :

Hunks : Exercise-focused during lockdown
Chunks : chill out and enjoy a tasty snack
Drunks : Yeah !! I’ll just have another - I’m not working tomorrow !

I managed, two out of three, best result for ages!

 

[markjay]

I think we will be okayeesh in the summer, it's easy to keep distance and avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation etc.

What will happened after September? Will people still stand outside the pub and drink at near-zero (or even sub-zero) temperatures? And seat at restaurant tables in the street? Or will people go back to not eating and drinking outside,as they did during the lockdown? Or will they just go into pubs and restaurants like they did pre-Corona?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Latest ONS data shows that total deaths in England & Wales for week 25 (ending June 19th) were below the average for the same week in the previous 5 years. Will be interesting to see whether the packed beaches in last week's heatwave have any effect in the weeks to come!

View attachment 98621

Re the "beach effect," it's worth remembering that we're overdue the spike effect of the VE Day celebrations, Spring Bank Holiday, BME demonstrations and some of the early illegal parties / raves. Which should give us some comfort.

But let's see how the data pans out over the rest of Summer.

We've got a host of variables still rolling around the place, as well as heaving into view as we reopen the borders and just start mixing people more enthusiastically in the British tourist hotspots: from Cornwall to the Lake District, from Margate to Blackpool...

 

[Benzowner]

I think we will be okayeesh in the summer, it's easy to keep distance and avoid closed spaces with poor ventilation etc.

What will happened after September? Will people still stand outside the pub and drink at near-zero (or even sub-zero) temperatures? And seat at restaurant tables in the street? Or will people go back to not eating and drinking outside,as they did during the lockdown? Or will they just go into pubs and restaurants like they did pre-Corona?

With global warming, is it going to get that cold