COVID-19 ... impact on death rates

[MikeInWimbledon]

But let's see how the data pans out over the rest of Summer.

.....duh..... "how the data pan out...."

 

[Deleted member 37751]

301 U60s have died from Covid in English hospitals with no other condition. Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

How does this warrant a national lockdown?

 

[BTB 500]

301 U60s have died from Covid in English hospitals with no other condition. Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

How does this warrant a national lockdown?

But presumably a fair number died from Covid while having a condition that wouldn't normally have been life-threatening?

Bottom line is that even with the lockdown 63,000 more people have died so far this year than in the same period in 2019 (England & Wales only). That's an increase of 24% ... a lot of extra deaths. Of course some of those would have died later in the year in the normal course of events, but we won't know what proportion till we have longer-term figures.

 

[ChipChop]

But presumably a fair number died from Covid while having a condition that wouldn't normally have been life-threatening?

Bottom line is that even with the lockdown 63,000 more people have died so far this year than in the same period in 2019 (England & Wales only). That's an increase of 24% ... a lot of extra deaths. Of course some of those would have died later in the year in the normal course of events, but we won't know what proportion till we have longer-term figures.

You presume that people in hospital with serious conditions such as heart disease, lung cancer, chronic repiratory disease, cerebrovascular diseases and dementia/ alzheimers disease do not die of them?

Excess deaths were at normal levels prior to lockdown, even though it is widely thought now that Coronavirus has been in the community for a lot longer than we previously thought.

 

[m80]

I haven't considered this overly, so don't have a view. But for thought.

We are running at approx' 63,000 extra deaths.
It was said yesterday that 29,000 of those deaths are associated to nursing homes.

So now the number of lesser aged to have died is 'approx' 34,000
The country has managed reasonably well, for want of a better terminology.

In truth that is less scary than the possibilities that were discussed, and maybe seems less than we should have been afraid of.

But, how would that picture have looked w/o the restrictions?
What effect on the NHS, as a manageable service, had the numbers been significantly higher?
Would the social effect, that being on industry and the economy, have been beyond manageable?

My gut tells me that the way they are designing the 'relaxations' we have every chance of finding out soon enough.

The priority, in my mind, is now toward the economy. That suffers unless we are working and interacting while spending our money.

Where is the correct balance between preventing the social impact of the Covid running free and the economy destruction of more serious controls?

Again I don't have a fixed opinion on this as I can see the negative social impact of what the poorer economy will have on us in our society. And of course the complex globalisation that we are part of is part of the same consideration.

 

[BTB 500]

You presume that people in hospital with serious conditions such as heart disease, lung cancer, chronic repiratory disease, cerebrovascular diseases and dementia/ alzheimers disease do not die of them?

Eh? Of course they die, but the point is that this year a lot more of them have died, and sooner. As I said we won't know the true picture till Covid has subsided - if the overall total number of deaths for the whole of 2020 (for example) is similar to last year then Covid didn't have any real impact, other than killing some people who would have died anyway a bit earlier (not so good if you were one of them of course ...). My gut feeling is that's unlikely to be the case though.

Excess deaths were at normal levels prior to lockdown, even though it is widely thought now that Coronavirus has been in the community for a lot longer than we previously thought.

You mean total deaths were at normal levels before lockdown?

The week that lockdown started (week 13, ending March 27th) was the first week where the total number of deaths went up significantly compared to previous years. As I understand it no symptoms are visible for 1-2 weeks after exposure to Covid, and presumably you're not likely to die for a while after that. The peak in the death rate was 3 weeks later (week 16) after which it fell consistently. That would suggest to me that lockdown worked.

 

[ChipChop]

Here is a very interesting article on lockdowns worldwide. What jumps out is that deaths started to climb immediately after lockdown.

Questions for Lockdown Apologists

We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases…

medium.com

 

[SW18]

Here is a very interesting article on lockdowns worldwide. What jumps out is that deaths started to climb immediately after lockdown.

Questions for Lockdown Apologists

We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases…

medium.com

Which means...?

 

[ChipChop]

Which means...?

Try reading it first (if you want to). Then make your own mind up.

 

[Deleted member 37751]

But presumably a fair number died from Covid while having a condition that wouldn't normally have been life-threatening?

There is no presumptions; they are the facts - if you’re under 60 with no underlying health issues then 301 have died since lockdown.

Bottom line is that even with the lockdown

Bottom line is that the fallout from the lockdown has massively affected the young and decimated chunks of the economy.

Those at highest risk should have been made to lockdown while the rest of us get on with earning money to pay bills and taxes like Sweden.

 

[whitenemesis]

Here is a very interesting article on lockdowns worldwide. What jumps out is that deaths started to climb immediately after lockdown.

Questions for Lockdown Apologists

We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases…

medium.com

Considering deaths lag behind infection by anything from 10 - 20 days I'd say the decision to lockdown didn't precipitate an increase in deaths but, as designed, reduce the peak of a very rapidly rising curve..

 

[BTB 500]

Considering deaths lag behind infection by anything from 10 - 20 days I'd say the decision to lockdown didn't precipitate an increase in deaths but, as designed, reduce the peak of a very rapidly rising curve..

Precisely.

 

[markjay]

Here is a very interesting article on lockdowns worldwide. What jumps out is that deaths started to climb immediately after lockdown.

Questions for Lockdown Apologists

We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases…

medium.com

Now this confuses me... more and more your recent posts seem to suggest that the lockdown did work? I thought you were opposed to it? Or are you saying that it worked, but wasn't worth the price (to the economy)?

 

[C240Sport97]

As I said we won't know the true picture till Covid has subsided

but the hysterical press has hardly mentioned this, nor has countless actual and self appointed experts; 2 exceptions I can think of being CMO and CSA

 

[markjay]

but the hysterical press has hardly mentioned this, nor has countless actual and self appointed experts; 2 exceptions I can think of being CMO and CSA

Chris Whitty and Patrik Vallance repeated it on almost every occasion: "all-causes excess deaths, at the end of the pandemic" is - and always was - the only meaningful statistic regarding COVID-19 mortality in the UK. Sometimes it's best to listen to what government officials say, and not to what the press are saying...

 

[ChipChop]

Considering deaths lag behind infection by anything from 10 - 20 days I'd say the decision to lockdown didn't precipitate an increase in deaths but, as designed, reduce the peak of a very rapidly rising curve..

You must then be able to produce data showing hospital admissions were rising rapidly prior to UK lockdown on 23rd March. I cannot find any such data.

COVID-19: Admissions to Hospital - Update - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Overview of data on hospital admissions with COVID-19 in the UK and care home cases of COVID-19 in England.

www.cebm.net

Hospital admissions were high at the start of the year (early January) due to what was presumed to be a bad flu season. Stated as 10 times worse than the previous year.

Hospitalisations for flu 10-fold higher than last year, official figures show

The number of people hospitalised with flu this winter is almost ten times as high as this time last year, new figures show.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[BTB 500]

There is no presumptions; they are the facts - if you’re under 60 with no underlying health issues then 301 have died since lockdown.

Correct, but my point was that people under 60 with conditions that were not life-threatening also died and aren't included in that number. So the true impact on that age group (the working population, if you like) was much greater.

 

[ChipChop]

Now this confuses me... more and more your recent posts seem to suggest that the lockdown did work? I thought you were opposed to it? Or are you saying that it worked, but wasn't worth the price (to the economy)?

No i am against mass lockdown. I am all for a targeted lockdown of at risk groups.

 

[BTB 500]

So out of interest here are the weekly total deaths in England & Wales for the age group 20-59 (data from ONS):

 

[zipdip]

It could be said that people will either be :

Hunks : Exercise-focused during lockdown
Chunks : chill out and enjoy a tasty snack
Drunks : Yeah !! I’ll just have another - I’m not working tomorrow !

Well number 2 and 3 sum me up ,but then with 3 I am retired so every day is Sunday,today had breakfast nothing special just cerial,then at 10 am I had a coffee and a couple of biscuits,I then went out and inspected the garden I was going to do something but decided it looked like rain so came in and logged on here,the at 11,45 I said I fancy a Barcardi and coke,SWMBO said you have had no lunch do you want to fall over,and suggested I have some sandwiches and maybe some white wine to go with it,now at 12.55 my Barcardi has turned up ,with the news that is all the coke we have,I tell you this brings into sharp focus that something has to be done on the shopping front,how can I get to number 4 which is a Blank, totally unware of whats going on but a big smile on your face until you fall asleep.