@glojo It's not so much a fear of running out of oil, it's more a question of concern about the impact of the waste products. Hasn't escaped my notice that there's something of a head of steam getting going in that direction now.
Personally, I think oil is too valuable a resource to be just burning it - it's vital for so much of our modern life, not just transport.
The whole-life environmental impact of ICE vs BEV has been done to death. It depends on your mileage fundamentally, and to a lesser extent than might first seem likely, the way the electricity the EV uses is generated, but unless you do very, very few miles, BEV wins. Longer term, that source of electricity used as fuel factor is going to become increasingly 'green' as it's simply cheaper to make 'green' electricity than any other method now. I was always an advocate of nuclear power, but given the latest power station is looking at a 22Bn starting price (and we just know it'll never come in on budget), sadly, nuclear is just too damned expensive.
There are ways to make 'green' fuel for ICE, but they are very complicated. I've no idea of the efficiency figures. I will take a wild stab at it though and say they don't compare favourably with just using the electricity in batteries, even allowing for making the batteries first.
I think anyone claiming a BEV is 'green' is at best being disingenuous though - no car is 'green', but some are 'greener' than others
The old image I used to have of EV, a car with a long mains lead out the back connected to a dirty power station, is changing to something a bit less negative as time goes by - the cable connects to a wind or solar farm a lot of the time now. Most of the year my hybrid is charged by the sun from my own solar PV array.
I quite agree that early adopters are going to get stuck with old tech...but that's always the way with anything new. If they are doing any kind of mileage, I suspect they won't care much anyway as they'll be saving money regardless. Then again, the residuals on ICE aren't that wonderful either. I've got the worst of both worlds with my hybrid - pathetically small battery capacity coupled with all the added joys of ICE servicing etc. Silly me!
I saw a figure that suggests fundamental battery technology/chemistry could theoretically allow energy density to improve by a factor of 9. Even a factor of 2 would mean BEV becomes possible for many many more users (twice the range or half the weight/size - you pick).
I don't think there's much left to do with ICE by way of cleaning it up - we've already gone too far along that path in some ways, trading one pollutant for another, and of course, adding masses of additional complexity and down-the-line problems with things like DPFs NOX sensors etc etc. which just makes the whole equation more complicated.
..and no, I'm not saying an EV is right for everyone by a long shot. May never be TBH. I know I could have one now and it would do 100% of what I need from a car. It might not do everything I
want from one though, but that's a whole other thing.
I suspect I'll stick with my current hybrid until to goes wrong then scrap it and buy some hateful little EV runabout to see me out until I shuffle off this mortal coil. Sadly, my fun cars are a bit basic/raw and given I'm already 60, suspect I won't be wanting to drive them for too many more years.
but until aircraft stop over-flying our cities, we will EVER become carbon neutral even if we banned all ICE vehicles.
