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Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by gilberto, Jan 11, 2019.
Simple question are diesels dead in the water if busting a new car?
Depends on the miles you do, where you live and where you drive.
If you do higher mileage and don't live or drive frequently (at your cost) into one of the LEZ's then it can still be the best choice. If your mileage is marginal or you do live / drive in LEZ areas then probably not the choice to make.
They are far from dead, but more consideration needs to be given.
I've never owned a diesel and probably never will but that's just personal preference. I have to admit the government have stuffed up again and gone too far the other way with diesels. I don't believe they are dead and they will still be the choice of high mileage users for many years yet. What you probably won't be able to do to the same extent as previously, is sell a second hand diesel to low/mid mileage buyers. The pendulum swung too far against diesels and while it will come back it won't be all the way.
Diesel cars used to be a only a tiny proportion of (non-van) car sales up to 20 years ago.
Three things made Diesel car sales overtake petrol car sales:
1. Improvement in refinement and power.
2. Frugal fuel consumption.
3. Significantly reduced taxation for business users (the governmnet were trying to meet their CO2 quotas).
The taxation edge is likely to reverse itself.
But for private owners who cover 15,000 or more miles a year, a diesel car is still a good option.
However, Diesel cars should really be purchased new or nearly-new, both because of compliance with the latest low-emission standards etc, and because of the potential high cost of repairs once out of warranty.
It's an interesting time for new car buyers at the moment. Diesel has been villified by the government, and as a result people are scared of buying a new diesel in case it becomes "outlawed" in the future (think ULEZ in London and the spread of that etc).
The problem is that even the most efficient petrols are no match economy-wise for a modern diesel. Hybrids and electric cars are tantilisingly close to being ready, but the battery life, charging infrastructure is not quite there. Give it five years and things will be different.
The net result of this is that people are only changing cars if they have to. Given that most modern cars will go on for a long time if maintained, what you are finding is that people who would normally be changing their cars this year, will postpone the decision and keep what they have got. This explains the enormous slump in new car registrations widely published in the press. It also explains JLR's problems as people are scared to commit £80k to a diesel Range Rover.
Once government policy becomes clearer, and once electric / hybrid becomes (a) cheaper and (b) feasible (better battery tech, quicker charging etc, better infrastructure), you will see a surge of people buying new cars again. I reckon this upswing will start in a few years time.
I am in exactly this situation. My current family wagon is a 50mpg diesel Mondeo with 83k on the clock - owned from new. I want to change it, the cash is there to do so, I fancy a GLC. But I won't be changing it for a few years. I plan to run it into the ground for a few more years, wait for battery tech etc to improve, and then buy an electric car.
I think I am not alone in this stance.
Clearly if you need to change your car, you may not have an option. In this instance, finding a cheap diesel car lease for a few years might be an idea, and once the lease is ended see if electric cars are any more suitable / cheap and will do the job. That way you are not taking the risk on diesel cars becoming worthless due to government legislation.
I, personally, would not be sinking serious cash into buying a new diesel anything at the moment unless I had no choice as I absolutely had to buy a car for some reason.
Old (Euro 4-) diesels emit high levels of particulate and NOx and Euro 5 DPF diesels still emit plenty of NOx. Euro 6+ diesels are essentially the same as their gasoline equivalents, if the gasoline cars have particulate traps. If gasoline DI cars are not fitted with GPF, they are worse than DPF equipped diesels for particulate.
The government is trying to reduce city congestion and (in order to create demand so as to justify major investment) are pushing society towards electric cars (which still make particulate from their tyres and brakes, some say worse than diesel cars due to being heavier). Diesels are basically a sitting duck.
If buying a new diesel, then it will be Euro 6+ (6N is I think the latest version based on the new drive cycle/test method). It will meet the current requirements of ULEZ and will/should do so for some time to come. In the future, as EVs become more prevalent, the ULEZ limits will change so as to exclude all fossil-fuelled cars, again initially as a route towards reduced congestion.
Where it goes from there is probably going to be well past my sell by date.
I wouldn't personally buy any new diesel now. There's a significant risk that the current anti-diesel trend will continue, with the potential for horrific depreciation by the time you sell it. And if you intend hanging on to it ... well the more complex diesels become (to meet emissions and consumption targets) the more of a liability they are as they get older (unless you keep extending the warranty).
Something like a 3 year lease might make sense ... that's probably the only option I'd consider with a diesel now (never having leased anything in my life).
I'm with @BTB 500 on this.
I'd only consider a purchasing diesel if there were very specific advantageous reasons that offset the longer term risks in terms of depreciation and usage restrictions. Or a lease over a given term at the right price.
We bought a Euro IV diesel (Vito Dualiner) new 11 years ago, planning to run it (personal/private use only) for as long as we could. Up to about 96k miles it was OK, a couple of minor breakdowns (crankshaft position sensor, differential pressure sensor) plus 3 or 4 failed glowplugs. Then last year things took a serious turn for the worse ... 8 breakdowns, off the road for almost 9 weeks in total and £6.5k for diagnostics and repairs. Fuel pressure sensor, DPF temp. sensor, MAF sensor, EGR valve, new turbo, new manifolds, new instrument cluster. Not really what you expect from a premium brand commercial vehicle with FMBSH at that sort of mileage. I dread to think what a Euro 6 with twin turbos etc. is going to be like at similar age/mileage.
Successful petrol hybrids have been around for a good while now - look at Toyota (20+ years) and Lexus (10+ years). IMO that will take over from diesel until pure electric become more of a practical proposition for 'normal' usage.
I would go with a lease and let them take the risk, providing the quote doesn’t already reflect a low residual. Interestingly, if you go onto DriveTheDeal the significant discounts (£9k) are exactly the same for petrol E Classes as diesels - £ 10k discount is available on a plug-in E Class, albeit a plug-in diesel. I was expecting the diesels to be dumped. Must be a sign that the market really is tight & also the Micky Mouse list prices used by MB.
I've only ever bought new cars for cash (or on immediately terminated finance plans), but I'm seriously considering PCH if I want to stay diesel for my next car. I live in London (just outside the North Circular) with no off road area where I could charge an EV or PHEV, so my only other options are petrol or self-charging hybrids. At least with PCH you know the costs upfront, and someone else takes the risk on depreciation.
From what Mondeo diesels are doing mileage-wise around where I live, 83'000 miles is not even half way there........
Especially when you find it comes with a 4-pot under the bonnet.
It's all daft as a Brexit brush , electric hasn't the infrastructure and has gone up in the last few years and won't get any cheaper , the Fat Cat bosses temptation will all be too much..
Hybrid is an answer but the expensive batteries as above will expire as they have done in the Toyota Pruis and those taxi drivers are still lugging around with dead batteries whilst still enjoying a tax break .
The gubberment will eventually demonise them as there disposal is toxic to the environment .
All viable above for the short term .
I'd like to see the Hydrogen fuel cell development prevail .
Although I’d had several diesels while working, with hindsight, I made a big mistake buying a low mileage diesel. (Not MB, only because I wanted a full 4 seater folding hardtop convertible which MB don’t do). 5 years old with only 29,000 miles.
Now on 42000, and all sorts of exhaust related problems, DPF shot etc, fortunately I bought aftermarket warranty, which has proved to be the best bargain........
Might have to go back to solid tintop or ragtop, non+diesel.
I believe that it is the older diesels (pre 2013 ??) are a problem. Modern units are still ok.
Manufacturers have made great strides in cleaning up car diesel engines. However this has been accompanied by a plethora of engine add-ons and exhaust clean up technologies which have removed the previous inherent long term reliability of the compression ignition engine. This can be evidenced by the often expensive problems experienced by forum users on modern diesel mercedes out of warranty. Whether this translates into reduced second/third hand values is difficult to quantify but adding this to the current popular perception [ right or wrong] of the diesel engined car as posing some sort of heath risk would indicate buying a new diesel may not be the best choice. While derv may still offer the best mileage diesel engined cars new depreciation profile may obviate that??
And then there are the likes of me with a 2011 Nissan QQ+2 1.5dci - Euro 5
planning to change it next year, but what will it be worth......
May have to keep hold and drive it into the ground (70k, just flown through the MOT and did 62mpg on a round trip to Bath and back last weekend)
It's cost a few quid on bits but interestingly, no engine / emission related bits (it does have a remap though....)
Will it be essentially worthless though?
You bought a Nissan Cash Cow
Yep and it's not been bad bad overall
Wife wanted another 7 seater after the Zafira (which was also good at its job -2.2 petrol, but we got sucked into the world of diesels..... And hence the dilemma)
Don't worry, I've still got 3.5 litres of MBs finest V6 petrol parked on the drive