Ebola, worring times

Are you worried about Ebola?

  • Yes

    Votes: 29 36.7%
  • No

    Votes: 36 45.6%
  • Not bothered

    Votes: 14 17.7%

  • Total voters
    79
  • Poll closed .
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MMS: Error Thats a valid link never mind the title!

e.g. [YOUTUBE HD]XdYyvR3DJ-A[/YOUTUBE HD]
 
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From grober's link

"We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total
The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still"
 
I thought that the number of deaths was doubling every 20 days? If that is correct, would anyone care to estimate how many deaths might be expected over the next 12 months, and also how long might it be before everyone has been infected?

Source?
 
So, from 4,000 to 20,000 in just less than 20 days according to the WHO as reported in the NEMJ.
 
I'm just waiting for the zombie stories to start coming out...

Wasn't it 28 days later that used a mutated Ebola strain as the "cause" for the zombie apocalypse?

Time to stock up on food and sawn off shotguns (if I've learnt anything from movies, is that the best way to deal with a rapidly spreading virus is a sawn off shotgun)
 
So, from 4,000 to 20,000 in just less than 20 days according to the WHO as reported in the NEMJ.

Today the UN coordinator said on TV that 20,000 cases are expected by 1st December.

He seemed confused and stressed when he tried reassuring the public by saying that if the current situation gets out of control then we will find ourselves in a new situation for which WHO has no plans...
 
Doesn't fill one with confidence....

Prevent all travel from the infected areas, worked in previous outbreaks . It's not rocket science, just politically unpalatable.
 
That means today's number multiplied by 2 to the power of (365 / 20).

So basically round it down to 360 days giving 360/20 which is 18.

2 to the power of 18 is 262144.

So in rough numbers whatever the number of deaths is today - say 4,000 multiplied by 250,000 which gives you a round billion.

If the death rate is say 50% then that would imply of 2 billion infected.

So as the World population is around 7 billion, before Xmas 2015, we will all have been infected and 50% of us dead according to a worst case scenario!

This of course depends on the doubling time of deaths to be 20 days. This has so far not been the case in Nigeria, where the death rate appears to have plateaued and fallen in September. Nevertheless, many countries are going to see the arrival and exponential rise in deaths from ebola unless there is a reduction in infection rate, possibly by the development of a vaccine in time.

My thoughts are that our government should assist with the funding of specific immunological research into the development of an Ebola vaccine. Building a hospital in West Africa might assist in the short term relief operation but the solution is not in increased hospital beds.

Unless the spread of this virus is reduced by the different environment of Northern Europe, then we had all better prepare now rather than stick our heads in the sand. I personally would be willing to donate to scientific research in this area.
4000 Deaths And Counting: The Ebola Epidemic In 4 Charts - Forbes is a link with some good information about the spread of ebola in Africa.

I also found a research worker who is crowdsourcing funds for ebola research here: Ebola researcher looks to the internet for funding | Video | Reuters.com and the donation site here: https://www.crowdrise.com/scrippsresearchinsti Perhaps we can help in a direct way rather than just talking about it? Hopefully some sort of cure can be developed before it is too late for all of us.
 
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So as the World population is around 7 billion, before Xmas 2015, we will all have been infected and 50% of us dead according to a worst case scenario!

This of course depends on the doubling time of deaths to be 20 days. This has so far not been the case in Nigeria, where the death rate appears to have plateaued and fallen in September. Nevertheless, many countries are going to see the arrival and exponential rise in deaths from ebola unless there is a reduction in infection rate, possibly by the development of a vaccine in time.

It's not been clear so far as to what attempts have been made to control it in Africa.

The case in Texas appears to show that the disease does not spread easily in the general population. Health workers appear to be disproportionately at risk.

As an example - Norovirus is highly contagious by direct and indirect contact but simple measures can control its spread as long as the public actually observe them.
 
The problem with these countries is that many of their citizens are literally living in sh*t. There is huge disparity in these societies with a very large proportion of the population living in conditions akin to the middle ages in Europe. Take poor un-educated people from a rural environment and pack them together in overcrowded slums with open sewers , huge piles of garbage and polluted waterways and its an epidemic waiting to happen. The Ebola outbreak is the consequence economic underdevelopment as much as it is some weird virus caught from fruit bats.
Hopefully the panic now felt by the materially better off Western Societies will promote greater impetus to fund research into a immunological solution.
 
US gov ( CDC ) is funding development of vaccine / treatment by a private company in US currently.

Saw just now that Mark Zuckerberg has donated $25m towards research / aid.

Problem is that worldwide governments aren't taking it seriously enough , CDC estimates $1bn needed to control it , so far worldwide govts have pledged less than $250m
 
Ebola Hazmat suits on sale for Halloween, says press report...Stay safe & party on. ;)
 
moonloops said:
Still got an NBC suit in the loft - may cause panic on the tube tomorrow though :D
haha, I've washed mine a few times to get rid of the charcoal bits that kept coming off on my clothes.

Only £15 or so for a 'new' one on Amazon or fleabay.

Would love to see their faces if you team it with a gas mask!
 

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