grober
MB Master
Last edited:
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I thought that the number of deaths was doubling every 20 days? If that is correct, would anyone care to estimate how many deaths might be expected over the next 12 months, and also how long might it be before everyone has been infected?
Thankfully I have one of those...
Neil
So, from 4,000 to 20,000 in just less than 20 days according to the WHO as reported in the NEMJ.
That means today's number multiplied by 2 to the power of (365 / 20).
So basically round it down to 360 days giving 360/20 which is 18.
2 to the power of 18 is 262144.
So in rough numbers whatever the number of deaths is today - say 4,000 multiplied by 250,000 which gives you a round billion.
If the death rate is say 50% then that would imply of 2 billion infected.
So as the World population is around 7 billion, before Xmas 2015, we will all have been infected and 50% of us dead according to a worst case scenario!
This of course depends on the doubling time of deaths to be 20 days. This has so far not been the case in Nigeria, where the death rate appears to have plateaued and fallen in September. Nevertheless, many countries are going to see the arrival and exponential rise in deaths from ebola unless there is a reduction in infection rate, possibly by the development of a vaccine in time.
Containment must be the only answer.
haha, I've washed mine a few times to get rid of the charcoal bits that kept coming off on my clothes.moonloops said:Still got an NBC suit in the loft - may cause panic on the tube tomorrow though
Seems to be working for Nigeria.
Ebola outbreak: Nigeria is 'a week away' from beating virus - Health News - Health & Families - The Independent
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