EU Referendum

Should Britain Exit the EU?

  • Leave

    Votes: 105 64.0%
  • Remain

    Votes: 59 36.0%

  • Total voters
    164
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It's not the fact of Brexit that's screwing things up, it's the Tories buggering about and not announcing article 50 so the process can begin.
 
It's not the fact of Brexit that's screwing things up, it's the Tories buggering about and not announcing article 50 so the process can begin.



Did you not see that there is a leadership battle ongoing and it for the new PM to deal with. And I don't think anyparty are in a position to lead right now, well apart for the SNP depressingly!!
 
Can't be long before the German car makers change the UK prices. If the fx continues to move, they might make a bold decision and price UK cars in Euros.

One assumes they can't sustain a 10% price shift for too long.

Car pricing is a mysterious thing.

The list price is one thing - what people pay is another.

So for example they could just leave the list prices alone but change the finance packages and dealer deposit contributions.

They have other options too. They can play with specifications within the range.

The likes of MB and BMW and to a lesser extent Audi and VW have some flexibility to trade volume for margin.

And why would they price UK cars in Euros? Would you expect them to price cars in EUR in the USA or in Singapore or Japan or Australia?
 
Like her not, you need someone with Thatcher's character to deal with BREXIT.

We really don't want some namby pamby politician trying to further their own career leading this whole affair.

The irony being that a strong leader might not have held a referendum in the first place.
 
The irony being that a strong leader might not have held a referendum in the first place.



No a strong leader would have got s better set of EU reforms through and we would still be in the EU AND in control. Cameron was too weak and too socialist in this current environment.
 
No a strong leader would have got s better set of EU reforms through and we would still be in the EU AND in control. Cameron was too weak and too socialist in this current environment.

Yes although I don't ever think you can be too socialist - you just need the right leader (John Smith/David Miliband?) with the ability to implement social policies with some elan for the bigger picture. Hence why the female Tory leader candidates are focusing in part on their feminine, caring side - perhaps introducing the New Conservatives, slightly left of New Labour but without the dubious war record.

Ps. Anybody here read Alastair Campbell's in office diaries - The Blair Years ?
 
Hence why the female Tory leader candidates are focusing in part on their feminine, caring side - perhaps introducing the New Conservatives, slightly left of New Labour but without the dubious war record.

Compassionate - until elected.
Apart from the fact that a a Tory would sooner eat their own genitalia with a knife and fork and condiment of your choosing than look leftward (or even appear to) they can't risk opening the door to Farage's return.

If a general election is called - could a party win a majority on an anti A50 ticket? (Or there be sufficient MPs elected that would vote A50 down?)
A second referendum of sorts but without the extreme polarisation and with more in the way of facts available. Viable?
 
Ps. Anybody here read Alastair Campbell's in office diaries - The Blair Years ?

or, The Bill Clinton Tapes

or, No One Left to Lie to: The Triangulations of William Jefferson Clinton


Anybody?
 
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Apart from the fact that a a Tory would sooner eat their own genitalia with a knife and fork and condiment of your choosing than look leftward (or even appear to) they can't risk opening the door to Farage's return.

This is outdated logic since the last election when UKIP appeared to be significantly damaging the Labour vote.

If a general election is called - could a party win a majority on an anti A50 ticket? (Or there be sufficient MPs elected that would vote A50 down?)

A general election can be won on a minority vote.

This means that in principle it could even with the 52% remaining rock slid depending on the geographic distribution and party allegiances.

The risk, however, is that parliamentary authority and even the existing party system could be seriously destabilised.
 
This is outdated logic since the last election when UKIP appeared to be significantly damaging the Labour vote.

Well it is at least logic. I was beginning to think the UK had abandoned logic out of fear they would grow ears like Spock's.
Labour voters susceptible to populist dog whistles moved to UKIP but so did some Tory voters. Also, there is a risk of Tory MPs defecting to UKIP. That UKIP can pull support from either camp is what makes it a real threat.

The risk, however, is that parliamentary authority and even the existing party system could be seriously destabilised.

Not that it's in great shape as it is, but given so much of the leave vote was a kicking to both mainstream parties for neglecting large swathes of the country - isn't destabilisation the name of the game? What legitimacy if a government is elected in an election with very poor turnout because neither of the main parties are desired (assuming no rival party)? Is the reality that an election would open the door to a third party that may win - one which relishes Brexit? Perhaps the election of the new Tory leader will inform us of which way it would vote re A50. A lifeline to Labour if the Tories are committed to Brexit (assuming Labour are opposed to Brexit)?
 
This is outdated logic since the last election when UKIP appeared to be significantly damaging the Labour vote.



A general election can be won on a minority vote.

This means that in principle it could even with the 52% remaining rock slid depending on the geographic distribution and party allegiances.

The risk, however, is that parliamentary authority and even the existing party system could be seriously destabilised.

Also had the EU Referendum been calculated using the same format as a general election (FPTP) then the calculated percentage in favour of Leave was around 68% rather than the 52% on a vote by vote basis. (I'm still trying to find the article that showed the calculation and will post it if I do, it was calculated by the electoral commission and posted on their website.).

These calculations probably dampen the large numbers of Remain voters concentrated in certain areas (Central London and Scotland) and smoothed out the result countrywide.

There would need to be a massive swing to make any difference using a general election as a basis of overturning the referendum result.
 
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Indeed - 17 million is more votes than any government has had in a 100 years.
 
Labour voters susceptible to populist dog whistles moved to UKIP but so did some Tory voters.

At the heart of the referendum result was this idea by the establishment that the UKIP was issuing populist dog whistles.

There was clearly more going on than that.

And that's why Friday 24th was such a shock and why even now so many people are having a hard time coming to terms with the result.


isn't destabilisation the name of the game?

If anybody is playing a game then it should be about restabilisation and re-engagement.

What legitimacy if a government is elected in an election with very poor turnout because neither of the main parties are desired (assuming no rival party)?
This is a good point though rather depressing.

It's depressing because where we are now didn't just happen overnight. Basically there has been a failure by the 'system' as regards representation.

People haven't actually been presented with democratic choices during GEs over the last couple of decades that actually allow them to be appropriately represented.

The EUref has exposed a gap which was larger than the establishemnt realised.

So how do you fix ths general problem? Difficult.
 
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So how do you fix ths general problem? Difficult.

I actually think this might be quite simple.

Tory party have to elect a new leader. Once he or she is in place, they could stage a campaign aimed at the people, stating we need a general election.

During this campaign, they need to point out one thing. More people voted for EU ref, than GE for the last however many years. If the public apathy comes back, then Parliment can vote on the EU Ref and if more EU remainer politicians have been voted in (due to a low turn out) then we could decided to retreat back to the EU.

Not only would this galvanise the Brexit camp, but the remain camp.

The Tory's have to go with the Brexit side throughout this campaign of course, but all the others should stick to their current path.

Then whoever wins the GE will have the actual mandate of the people.

If it is a remain vote, the parliment can debate the EU ref and with the will of the people, decide to ignore it (which they can anyway, but it is not the best idea at this time). And of course, if it is a brexit camp win, then thats 2-0 to UK-EU, and no need for the parliment to debate and decide to ignore the will of the people. (Of course, this is easy if you have a brexit majority anyway).

It does have to go to a GE. Those who voted for Cameron, will be disappointed he is not carrying on and may decide to give politics a miss. So you need to get them back in so the people actually realise the government does want your vote, and does not actually erase your vote, or rig the elections or whatever other nonsense ill informed opinion makers think.
 
Lots of forward fx contracts would have been placed just before the referendum.

I'd be very surprised if they hadn't already tied up their next 3-6 months of FX transactions pre vote.

I'd be surprised if they did.

"German car exports to the UK last year were worth nearly €18bn, and carmakers such as Volkswagen, which owns Bentley, and BMW, owner of the Mini, both have production facilities in the UK"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4DdthOkEA

3 months is £3B of "forward" trading they'd need to do. Doubt any of them have a fraction of that to commit to Fx. You would be brave indeed foolish to trade that forward, in an environment that was telling them that the £ would be stronger after the vote as the markets and "experts" said leave had no chance.
 
Car pricing is a mysterious thing.

The list price is one thing - what people pay is another.

So for example they could just leave the list prices alone but change the finance packages and dealer deposit contributions.

They have other options too. They can play with specifications within the range.

The likes of MB and BMW and to a lesser extent Audi and VW have some flexibility to trade volume for margin.
Just about everything in that list ultimately makes a particular car more expensive, which is what impacts us.

And why would they price UK cars in Euros? Would you expect them to price cars in EUR in the USA or in Singapore or Japan or Australia?

If they thought sterling was going to be wildy volatile for a while, it would be a way to remove that question. With weird times comes weird solutions.
 
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If they thought sterling was going to remain volatile, it would be a way to remove that question. With weird times comes weird solutions.

That doesn't change the underlying issue of currency volatility - it just moves the point in the chain between manufacturer and customer where it is exposed through conversion.

Most people buy on finance - businesses lease - so unless the underlying finance is in Euros then the pricing needs to be set in Sterling to fix the payments in Sterling.

If the underlying finance was in EUR then that adds a risk premium if the customer pays in GBP - or the customer has to take the currency risk over the term of the finance agreement or lease.

Ordinary people and businesses are at a disadvantage in this game compared with the manufacturers who can hedge and also offset currency liabilities.
 
I'd be surprised if they did.

"German car exports to the UK last year were worth nearly €18bn, and carmakers such as Volkswagen, which owns Bentley, and BMW, owner of the Mini, both have production facilities in the UK"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz4DdthOkEA

3 months is £3B of "forward" trading they'd need to do. Doubt any of them have a fraction of that to commit to Fx. You would be brave indeed foolish to trade that forward, in an environment that was telling them that the £ would be stronger after the vote as the markets and "experts" said leave had no chance.

You don't buy currency in advance, you place a contract to buy a certain amount at a certain point in the future. You pay for it when you use it at a pre agreed exchange rate determined at the time you placed the order. You can even do that with Thomas Cook for your holiday cash, the principal is the same.

You don't order £3bn pounds worth of Euro's and have stump up for them 3 months before you need it, that would be daft.

The big manufacturers have entire departments devoted to financial wizardry, Porsche are an excellent example, only a few years ago Porsche made more money in one 12 month trading period from Hedge fund trading than they did from manufacturing and selling cars, and at an average profit of £16,000 per vehicle sold (the highest in the industry) that takes some doing.
 
I actually think this might be quite simple.

Tory party have to elect a new leader. Once he or she is in place, they could stage a campaign aimed at the people, stating we need a general election.

During this campaign, they need to point out one thing. More people voted for EU ref, than GE for the last however many years. If the public apathy comes back, then Parliment can vote on the EU Ref and if more EU remainer politicians have been voted in (due to a low turn out) then we could decided to retreat back to the EU.

Not only would this galvanise the Brexit camp, but the remain camp.

The Tory's have to go with the Brexit side throughout this campaign of course, but all the others should stick to their current path.

Then whoever wins the GE will have the actual mandate of the people.

If it is a remain vote, the parliment can debate the EU ref and with the will of the people, decide to ignore it (which they can anyway, but it is not the best idea at this time). And of course, if it is a brexit camp win, then thats 2-0 to UK-EU, and no need for the parliment to debate and decide to ignore the will of the people. (Of course, this is easy if you have a brexit majority anyway).

It does have to go to a GE. Those who voted for Cameron, will be disappointed he is not carrying on and may decide to give politics a miss. So you need to get them back in so the people actually realise the government does want your vote, and does not actually erase your vote, or rig the elections or whatever other nonsense ill informed opinion makers think.

Forget ANY idea that the EU Referendum will be revisited. A decision has been made in a vote by the largest number of voters in decades (possibly ever?) in the UK, article 50 will be instigated in the reasonably near future.

Any suggestion that the result is nullified or overturned would create civil unrest at a level we've not seen in this country in modern times. It would make the Poll Tax riots look like drunk fistycuffs in the local pub.
 
Forget ANY idea that the EU Referendum will be revisited. A decision has been made in a vote by the largest number of voters in decades (possibly ever?) in the UK, article 50 will be instigated in the reasonably near future.

I wouldn't be so sure. There is a lot of resentment regarding the lies told to get the result. And quite a few who now regret voting leave.

Any suggestion that the result is nullified or overturned would create civil unrest at a level we've not seen in this country in modern times. It would make the Poll Tax riots look like drunk fistycuffs in the local pub.

Given the age part of the demographic - won't that just look like an episode of Last Of The Summer Wine viewed through a kaleidoscope?
 
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