"Fog the channel. Europe cut off" as some people in this country might say....
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"Fog the channel. Europe cut off" as some people in this country might say....
MikeInWimbledon
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So, who are THEY going to vote for....
As a completely unrepresentative sample, how are your contacts intending to vote: Macron, Le Pen, or not at all?
(I only ask this because when talking to Americans about Trump, and (middle aged) Brits about Brexit, they all said they would vote one way, while the media was forecasting something else altogether)
As a completely unrepresentative sample, how are your contacts intending to vote: Macron, Le Pen, or not at all?
(I only ask this because when talking to Americans about Trump, and (middle aged) Brits about Brexit, they all said they would vote one way, while the media was forecasting something else altogether)
fabes
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Le Pen took over 30% of the vote around Lille, but she always has been strong in the north and much of the south (immigration, some deprivation)
Macron you would like to think, but its not a question I openly asked of them, though the vocal ones were NOT in team Le Pen...
Some though are nervous of his lack of (or rather length of) experience, though to some, that's less baggage
And of course he does have that charm arising from when he was a bad boy seducing his older, married teacher.....
Macron you would like to think, but its not a question I openly asked of them, though the vocal ones were NOT in team Le Pen...
Some though are nervous of his lack of (or rather length of) experience, though to some, that's less baggage
And of course he does have that charm arising from when he was a bad boy seducing his older, married teacher.....
The tide may be turning
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/regrexit-majority-say-britain-wrong-vote-leave-eu-095932602.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/regrexit-majority-say-britain-wrong-vote-leave-eu-095932602.html
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Interesting read.
The poll shows 45% / 43% . Very similar to what the polls were showing just before the referendum.
So either the polls are based on non-representative samples, or people just don't vote the way they say they would....
Incidentally, I am one of those who voted against, an I still think it is a bad idea, but I don't see the point in the Times and YouGov 'do you regret...' poll.
Dryce
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I think it's well understood that there's a core of people who don't give the pollsters useful answers - typically understates (1) Conservative vote (2) EU ref anti-EU and (3) No vote in Scotland. The problem is measuring them.
Towards the end of the Indyref campaign we had that poll that spooked the Three Amigos (where are they now!) into 'The Pledge'. The poll was actually for No in terms of raw numbers - the polling organisation then incorporated some fiddle factors and it became a big swing to Yes.
I think it's notable that the last GE and the EUref outcomes were not that accurately polled. Remember Mr Farage conceding last June after the polls closed based on exit polls? And the way the night proceeded at the last GE? And the 1992 GE still gets talked about because of the difference between the outcome and the opinion polls.
Towards the end of the Indyref campaign we had that poll that spooked the Three Amigos (where are they now!) into 'The Pledge'. The poll was actually for No in terms of raw numbers - the polling organisation then incorporated some fiddle factors and it became a big swing to Yes.
I think it's notable that the last GE and the EUref outcomes were not that accurately polled. Remember Mr Farage conceding last June after the polls closed based on exit polls? And the way the night proceeded at the last GE? And the 1992 GE still gets talked about because of the difference between the outcome and the opinion polls.
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There is another point to consider, and that is that voting polls do not constitute and 'impartial observer', instead they are a dynamic part of the voting process.
A typical example is a poll that shows a victory for one side. Subsequently some voters who would like that side to win don't bother going to the polling stations because there's no need to make the effort... and then the other side wins.
Or the other way around, some voters might not like party a, and they don't think party a will win anyway so did not intend to bother and vote, but once they hear that party a is in the lead they go out and vote to stop them from winning.
A similar scenario can arise when there are two main political parties with other smaller parties in the background (as is traditionally the case in the UK). What can happen then is that some right-wing voters might want to vote for UKIP, but once they hear that Labour are in the lead they will change their vote to Tory to stop Labour from taking power - and vice versa, i.e. some left-wing voters might see that Labour is in the lead and will feel comfortable voting for (say) LibDem, which they wouldn't have done if there was a 'risk' that the Tory will win, etc.
So the polls can and do become part of the voting process - either as self-fulfilling prophecy or the other way around.
For this reason, a poll taken before the event will always be potentially useless because by making the results public the pollsters may have already changed the vote.
A typical example is a poll that shows a victory for one side. Subsequently some voters who would like that side to win don't bother going to the polling stations because there's no need to make the effort... and then the other side wins.
Or the other way around, some voters might not like party a, and they don't think party a will win anyway so did not intend to bother and vote, but once they hear that party a is in the lead they go out and vote to stop them from winning.
A similar scenario can arise when there are two main political parties with other smaller parties in the background (as is traditionally the case in the UK). What can happen then is that some right-wing voters might want to vote for UKIP, but once they hear that Labour are in the lead they will change their vote to Tory to stop Labour from taking power - and vice versa, i.e. some left-wing voters might see that Labour is in the lead and will feel comfortable voting for (say) LibDem, which they wouldn't have done if there was a 'risk' that the Tory will win, etc.
So the polls can and do become part of the voting process - either as self-fulfilling prophecy or the other way around.
For this reason, a poll taken before the event will always be potentially useless because by making the results public the pollsters may have already changed the vote.
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Yep , tactical voting is alive and well .
My dad was a staunch Conservative , but always voted SNP as he saw them as the only party with any chance of beating Labour in our constituency .
Notwithstanding that , we both agreed that Tam Dalyell was a very nice guy and each had some very pleasant conversations with him , despite our differing politics . Mutual respect , despite differences in opinion , goes a long way .
My dad was a staunch Conservative , but always voted SNP as he saw them as the only party with any chance of beating Labour in our constituency .
Notwithstanding that , we both agreed that Tam Dalyell was a very nice guy and each had some very pleasant conversations with him , despite our differing politics . Mutual respect , despite differences in opinion , goes a long way .
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Please use the UK politics thread. we do not allow Politics on the rest of the forum 
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