Geneva Motor Show Cancelled

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I don't blame them. Better now than leaving things too late, although it seems the spread will be worldwide in a short while according to the World Health Organization

The only way this could have been stopped was to shut down travel in January.

We're two months into the known outbreak and we have allowed the massive flows of people to criss cross regions and continents unabated through major mass transit hubs like Dubai, Heathrow, Singpore.

If China actually does manage to control it in the Wuhan region then that can be undone if they open up and the infections travel back in from the rest of the world. So that's another dilemma - instead of creating barriers to keep it in - if you get clear you need barriers to stop it coming back in.

I can't help feeling that there will have been cases over the last several weeks in Europe that would have been put down to winter flu. So could already be better established than the small numbers reported in the press.

One differentiator that may appear to hide it is different hygiene habits and culture - so the spread may be slower or dominate particular routes in one area compared with another. One thing I notice in the UK over the last 25 years is that hand washing in public toilets is the norm and not the exception. Food hygiene standards in some of the world has (visibly) improved over the last few years IME.

So what happens over the next few months ? Shutdown and cancellation of everything ? Or a a grim acceptance and assume that it will spread anyway but keep going with a massive campaign based on hygeine and reduction in contact to slow it. That then causes political issues between countries - if one that is clear tries to stay clear with stronge barriers while a neighbour that has it tries to keep going with less dramatic defensive measures. and limited barriers.

Hand gel dispensers have been magically appearing in large offices and institutions over the last couple of weeks. I haven't noticed them being actually used much.
 
The media have not quarantined millions of people.

Influenza is a highly infectious disease that usually strikes during the winter season. Globally, it causes an estimated one billion cases of influenza, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. A person can get the virus simply by being near an infected person that coughs, sneezes or talks, or by touching something with the virus on it.

Flu can cause up to 650,000 deaths a year globally – IFPMA
 
Influenza is a highly infectious disease that usually strikes during the winter season. Globally, it causes an estimated one billion cases of influenza, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. A person can get the virus simply by being near an infected person that coughs, sneezes or talks, or by touching something with the virus on it.

Flu can cause up to 650,000 deaths a year globally – IFPMA
And...how did the media cause all thius?
 
Its basically the same as a common cold, if your fit and healthy there is nothing to worry about. just mass hysteria created by the media.

Normal Flu is far deadlier.

That probably isn't true.

The figures bandied about suggest that 80 - 90% get mild symptoms - the problem is that 10 - 20 who don't may need critical care - and out of the total 1 to 2 % won't make it. If you can't deliver critical care to tat 10 to 20 then your fatality rate may be higher. And then there is the knock on to people with unrelated serious problems who don't get care because of the resources drained. Some of those who get complications seem to be in that 'fit and healthy' - not just those with other health issues.

We have some protection in the UK from 'flu because we have a seasonal vaccination programme - that even if it isn't 100% protection helps reduce the impact on hospitals. That masks the extent of the impact that even 'flu would have.
 
The media is hyping this new virus. They dont mention the over half a million who die from Flu annually.

The media have very little to report and a single figure number gets a big font and exclamation marks.

But offset that against the relative lack of media information coming out of China which without the UK or other media proceeded to put a very large number of people into a form of lock down. China is very closed in terms of reporting so we don't get much impression of the reality.

I think the media have a lot to answer for in their style of reporting - but had the outbreak occured initially in Europe or the US we'd be seeing more substantial reporting that might give people a better feel for what has been happening.

To be fair on the media the numbers of people impacted by 'flu have been mentioned - just not in the bold and large parts.
 
As far as we are told 80% infected get mild effects.
The fatality rate is around 1% apparently, but that figure is considered unreliable.
The issue here is that the 1% is of a greater number of infected bods. The infection seems easy to get. The actual numbers that go bye bye may yet be staggering.

We can also blame poor standards (of what ever) for the fast rise in those infected, I'm not sure that can be applied to Italy though.

Not unusual is the authorities being selective with the info passed to us. They neither want a panicking population or an economic crisis as a result. The threat to China's economy is seemingly significant.

There has been a magic figure of 14 days isolation in use for many weeks, even though it is supposedly unknown what the incubation period actually is and if contamination can occur prior to visible signs. As the spread from Italy to many other places is apparent and fairly specific dates of contact can be now ascertained (Teneriffe being a reasonable example) I'm surprised we haven't learned yet what the period of contamination is likely to be.

Increasing controls on 'some' travel seems reasonable to me, but it might work out very expensive.
Still after another w/e maybe Cobra will decide it's time.
 
Increasing controls on 'some' travel seems reasonable to me, but it might work out very expensive.
Still after another w/e maybe Cobra will decide it's time.

Does 'some' travel mean cross border or between major population centres?

Or does it mean rush hour buses and the Tube?

I think a lot of people would tolerate the idea of controls that bocked international travel - after all it's easy to point at foreingers and call them a risk. But if the disease is already in major cities like London then what? Shut down the buses and tube?
 
There's also a concern that this virus could mutate into something more deadly.

Still, on the bright side, take what's going on (or not going on) as travel restrictions and the like take hold as a sneak preview of what future de-globalisation will look like.
 
Hand gel dispensers have been magically appearing in large offices and institutions over the last couple of weeks. I haven't noticed them being actually used much.

Not the type that are incorporated in the door handle then. There's no avoiding a blat of gel with those. PITA when you are carrying something in your other hand.
 
Does 'some' travel mean cross border or between major population centres?

My thoughts were around unnecessary travel to the 'hot spots'. So in the main tourism.
But that is itself some what vague.

We hear of the virus being brought from N Italy for example. That is categorised as N of Pisa ++. Since the majority of travel will be for skiing at this time of year I now doubt that the areas of question now relate to only S of Milan and N of Pisa. It seems more likely that travellers, Italian and others, will have been to other areas in the Alps. I'm not reading of how and why the containment in Italy has failed.
 
Its basically the same as a common cold, if your fit and healthy there is nothing to worry about. just mass hysteria created by the media.

Normal Flu is far deadlier.

Influenza is a highly infectious disease that usually strikes during the winter season. Globally, it causes an estimated one billion cases of influenza, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. A person can get the virus simply by being near an infected person that coughs, sneezes or talks, or by touching something with the virus on it.

Flu can cause up to 650,000 deaths a year globally – IFPMA

Using your statistic of 290k-650k deaths per 1 billion Influenza cases, thats only a death rate of 0.029% - 0.065%

Out of 83,909 cases of Covid-19 there have been 2,869 deaths.... that is a death rate of 3.42%!!!!!!! (3 s.f.)

 
Should the potential for this not have been spotted by those running our economies?
Production of goods in countries where labour is cheap, so cheap old practices such as wet meat markets endure (a throw back to when no one had refrigerators) for the impoverished, then a severe dent in production capacity that negatively impacts all economies when a virus that wouldn't have made human contact but for live meat markets gets a hold on a population. Time for a rethink?
 
Using your statistic of 290k-650k deaths per 1 billion Influenza cases, thats only a death rate of 0.029% - 0.065%

Out of 83,909 cases of Covid-19 there have been 2,869 deaths.... that is a death rate of 3.42%!!!!!!! (3 s.f.)

quick maths :D
 

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