Greece; Is this the beginning of the end for the Euro?

Discussion in 'OT (OFF Topic) Forums' started by SPX, Jun 28, 2011.

  1. SPX

    SPX MB Club Veteran

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  2. R2D2

    R2D2 MB Club Veteran

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    It could actually be the beginning of the end fullstop, if Greece takes Europe down.
     
  3. Charles Morgan

    Charles Morgan MB Club Veteran

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    A decent analysis by the Economist - withdrawal from the Euro is extremely problematic.

    Greece's financial position is impossible and about time it was recognised. Not doing so is a even greater risk to the Euro.

    I was opposed to the Euro as it was an act of political hubris unfounded in economic reality. But now it has been created it isn't going away.
     
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  4. DITTRICH

    DITTRICH Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    The problem can be stated thus:-

    1 The European Central Bank holds squillions of Greek Bonds.
    2 The french banks also hold squillions of Greek bonds.
    3 The Greeks have no desire to repay anything to anyone. They want to default.
    4 What happens in the Greek Parliament might buy a little time...
    5 No-one wants to take haircuts - write downs.
    6 No-one wants to admit that the Greeks cannot afford to pay back all the money.

    Personally, I hope that the Greeks decide to default, since the European politicians appear to want to throw more good money after bad. Of them, only the Germans seem to have shown some backbone and that only because Merkel is getting hammered at the polls by her own country. The french want to avoid haircuts because they have the most to lose. The end will be painful and messy. They ought to get on with it now rather than kicking the problem a few months into the future. If they leave it later, it will be worse.
     
  5. st13phil

    st13phil MB Club Veteran

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    I quite agree. The reality is that Greece will never be in a position to repay its current level of debt and the social consequences of the austerity measures being demanded in return for the current bailout (which will only delay the inevitable) are clear to all but the most detached - or wilfully blind - bystander. Lots of haircuts in the immediate future, methinks...
     
  6. grober

    grober MB Club Veteran

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    Surely the problem is that the Euro was trying to encompass countries with widely differing economies. Without the ability of each country to float its currency and control its own interest rates in relation to its internal economics instability is bound to follow? Rest assured however that somewhere in darkened rooms festooned with LED screens guys in exquisitely tailored business shirts and braces will be making a killing out of all this misery .
     
  7. WDB124066

    WDB124066 MB Club Veteran

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    Ah, the very definition of Capitalism.......
     
  8. grober

    grober MB Club Veteran

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    I rather liked this picture from the Economist.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2011
  9. C240Sport97

    C240Sport97 MB Club Veteran

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    this is what happens when you spend too much
     
  10. WDB124066

    WDB124066 MB Club Veteran

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    This was doing the rounds a while back.....
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2011
  11. verytalldave

    verytalldave Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    My take on this situation............
    Its not a case of IF but WHEN.
    To have such wildly different economic areas under one umbrella can never work.
    Each must be allowed to find its own "value" which is economically impossible with one currency. Not to be able to float and find their own levels was always a recipe for disaster.
    Now is the time to buy shares in the companies that owns the minting factories. They are going to be very busy soon making piles of new pesetas, francs, marks etc...etc.....
     
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  12. Dryce

    Dryce MB Club Veteran

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    Greece was a margin al EU entrant let alone a Euro member.

    There is a conceit amongst our top politicians that somehow they know more about the greater good - eg. the Euro and immigration.

    Just like the banking community 'knew more'.

    My take is that Greece has only ever had one way to go. And that is out of the Euro. After the shock of the divorce the Euro will bounce back and some lessons will have been learned .... at least for a while until they are forgotten.

    As for Greece? Well Iceland is still there (ironic - it's formal application to the EU is just starting).
     
  13. Stratman

    Stratman Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    ^^^ Greece didn't meet the entry criteria for the Euro, but the proponents of the "One currency fits all" vanity project were so blinded by the belief they were right they ignored the warning signs and pressed on regardless.

    Now we're all paying for their pride and stubborness.
     
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  14. Godot

    Godot Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    Couldn't they sell off an Island or two, they have a few.:thumb:

    Is Turkey still knocking at the door to join Europe & the Euro ?

    They are looking more stable than the Greeks, which the Greeks will resent with even more stubbornness, as they slide down the greasy (Greecey ?) slope clutching an old drachma in one hand & and a Euro in the other for Charon the Ferryman.
     
  15. DITTRICH

    DITTRICH Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    An obolus (not drachma or euro).
    A Pedant.
     
  16. finisterre

    finisterre Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    I have a feeling that it will get fixed.

    The various banks will be told to suck it up or else and a general malaise will infest their circles until they see another bonus in 2013. Effectively the bods will devalue the debt and pretend it didn't really happen. The euro was always a political statement and one our masters enjoyed. Making it work will be another.


    Now would be the time to make a 'very generous' offer for the Elgin marbles.
     
  17. Dryce

    Dryce MB Club Veteran

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    It won't get fixed without Greece sorting itself out.

    Economist as always has some interesting numbers:

    Government debt: More pain to come | The Economist

    Note the position of UK - between Iceland and Ireland not far from Greece.
     
  18. finisterre

    finisterre Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    I was looking through those numbers.

    It made me think about relocation to Australia but I fear they are in a mining led bubble so I am not sure where I should run to.
     
  19. Dryce

    Dryce MB Club Veteran

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    I think the position of Japan and US is 'interesting'.

    And there is also an article up on the Economist about China.

    Things is that none of this stuff is really new information. The US debt position has been talked about for over a decade as a major impending problem. The assumption has been that at some point it would have to be dealt with - though not under current circumstances.

    The reality test for the future of the UK starts Thursday.
     
  20. finisterre

    finisterre Hardcore MB Enthusiast

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    I am conflicted on the strikes. My partner has been teaching for 20 years and it seems reasonable that her pension is honoured. I can see the argument for changing the terms for subsequent years and entrants.

    But if you have always known where you stand, you knew the pension is going to be liveable and you are too close to retirement to make any other provision than I see her point when she says it makes a her years of hard work seem unvalued.

    The pension does need to be worth working for.
     
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