New petrol and diesel car sales will be 'banned from 2030'

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Intriguing thought as to what percentage of the population will own an EV in say ten years from now. Particularly those who currently drive sub £3k vehicles. 🤔

I seem to remember reading somewhere that 50% of all new registrations are business users / fleet cars. I have no doubt that these buyers will all be buying new EVs just like they bought ICE cars so far.

As for the other 50%... well sone will some won't. But if less people buy new cars (EVs or otherwise), then second hand car prices will go up (as is currently happening), so I suspect that those who can't afford a new car will be further disadvantaged.
 
Like with any electronic device, the more you make the cheaper it gets

Apple isn't IMO a good example as they seem to markup disproportionately.

With cars the issue of volume is probably about amortising R&D and investment - whereas electronics has involved significant reductions in manufacturing costs as well.

The amount of raw material in a car is also a factor - which may be impacted the opposite way as volumes go up and scarcity raises prices.
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Time will tell with EVs.
 
I seem to remember reading somewhere that 50% of all new registrations are business users / fleet cars. I have no doubt that these buyers will all be buying new EVs just like they bought ICE cars so far.

As for the other 50%... well sone will some won't. But if less people buy new cars (EVs or otherwise), then second hand car prices will go up (as is currently happening), so I suspect that those who can't afford a new car will be further disadvantaged.
Quite. Further disadvantaged being the operative word I guess. 🤔
 
Quite. Further disadvantaged being the operative word I guess. 🤔

I have no doubt that clean car ownership will cost more than the current crop of ICE cars.

But then you could equally argue that house energy bills for city dwellers went up since heating by burning coal and wood became prohibited.

We know that the 'nasty' stuff is cheap. But this goes across the board. New homes could be cheaper if they didn't have to comply with current energy efficiency regulations.

And going back to cars, the running costs for Diesel cars would have been cheaper if they didn't need to have complex EU6 post treatment systems.

Etc etc. This trend has been ongoing for a while. And yes, it means that poor people now find it more difficult to warm their homes, buy a house, or drive a car, all because the 'cheap and nasty' options are now illegal.

But, again, this is not new - over the past 50 years we have been constantly raising standards and increasing prices as result - in many areas, including the Environment. So why single out the move to EVs?
 
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Yes but the steam roller approach is nuts. Consumption is the main problem. It would be far better for the environment if we kept our ICE cars for far longer, rather than buying into EVs. The same with building developments. Architects have recently said that we should not be knocking down old buildings, and should instead renovate and re-develop the old stock. I’ve thought that for years..

The other major issue for me is the 1% of global emissions that the UK is responsible for, it’s a drop in the ocean. And it simply cannot be justified to expect us to accept these huge and expenses changes, whilst countries like China don’t give a toss.

Still, whenever there’s money involved….
 
We also have to appreciate the energy transition is not global. The South Africa Energy Minister at an energy summit a couple of weeks ago said they are really targeting coal! And who are we to blame them as they suffer regular power outages. That could well be us if we rush our transition. I am sure we will see a sense check on the schedule of our transition as the costs of covid really start to bite, and of course renewables are still decades away from effectively replacing fossil fuels. I’m also not sure that the development of renewables will be fast enough to outpace the threat of Russia weaponising gas, so I think we‘ll see a resurgence of gas exploration if only for our energy security. Germany especially is really at risk. Interesting times ahead for sure.
 
I think that the deadline needs changing again to 2040 for cars as since covid everything has pretty much gone to shit and everywhere needs a chance to stabilise and go back to normal, and thats not even taking into consideration the shit show thats brexit, the saying biting more than you can chew definitely applies here i think anyways!
 
I have no doubt that clean car ownership will cost more than the current crop of ICE cars.

But then you could equally argue that house energy bills for city dwellers went up since heating by burning coal and wood became prohibited.

We know that the 'nasty' stuff is cheap. But this goes across the board. New homes could be cheaper if they didn't have to comply with current energy efficiency regulations.

And going back to cars, the running costs for Diesel cars would have been cheaper if they didn't need to have complex EU6 post treatment systems.

Etc etc. This trend has been ongoing for a while. And yes, it means that poor people now find it more difficult to warm their homes, buy a house, or drive a car, all because the 'cheap and nasty' options are now illegal.

But, again, this is not new - over the past 50 years we have been constantly raising standards and increasing prices as result - in many areas, including the Environment. So why single out the move to EVs?

In the news today:


Will poor people be able to afford replacing their heaters? And what of those living in rented accommodations? Etc. Green isn't cheap, and affects poorer people disproportionately.

Which, incidentally, is what leaders of countries in the developing world are complaining about: that the demands that the West makes on them have the effect of curbing the rise in standard of living for poor countries where people simply can't afford the more-expensive greener options.
 
Yes but the steam roller approach is nuts. Consumption is the main problem. It would be far better for the environment if we kept our ICE cars for far longer, rather than buying into EVs.
I don’t believe that this is an EV thing, it’s a new car thing.

The same is true for buying new petrol/diesel engined cars, it’s better for the environment to keep existing cars going.

In fact it’s not just limited to cars, replacing any existing “thing” with a new “thing” is worse for the environment.

PS There’s currently nothing stopping those who choose to to continue using petrol/diesel engined cars after 2030.
 
...It would be far better for the environment if we kept our ICE cars for far longer...

Not a bad idea, when considered in isolation. However:

1. How would you achieve that? By heavily taxing new cars? How much support can the government get for such a move?

2. The main killer of old cars is the ever-rising labour costs. Relatively young cars get scrapped after developing mundane faults - repairing a blown head gasket can cost £100 in materials (gaskets, oil, etc) and £500 in labour (including head skimming). How would you stop old cars from being scrapped? By putting a cap on hourly rates charged by garages? By removing VAT from car parts? Etc.

3. In almost all countries where cars are kept and maintained for many years, you find that the common factor is poverty. Firstly, people can't afford new cars, then labour costs are ridiculously low and old cars can be repaired in perpetuity. Add to this lack of regulation and very low safety standards (compared to Western countries), and you get cheap motoring for the masses. But it is nigh-on impossible to maintain this once a country becomes prosperous and adheres to Western standards.

4. How do you prevent another coal mining crisis? Cutting the sales of new cars will mean hundreds of thousands of job losses, direct and indirect, across car and parts manufacturers, dealers, finance companies etc (which was the reason that Blair introduced the original scrappage scheme after the 2008 economic crash).

I am not suggesting this is a bad idea... just that it is far more complicated than it seems. Personally, if going down that route, I would go further and reduce the level of car ownership in the UK, so fewer people have cars. But I think that idea is just as academic as keeping cars for longer.
 
We also have to appreciate the energy transition is not global. The South Africa Energy Minister at an energy summit a couple of weeks ago said they are really targeting coal! And who are we to blame them as they suffer regular power outages. That could well be us if we rush our transition. I am sure we will see a sense check on the schedule of our transition as the costs of covid really start to bite, and of course renewables are still decades away from effectively replacing fossil fuels. I’m also not sure that the development of renewables will be fast enough to outpace the threat of Russia weaponising gas, so I think we‘ll see a resurgence of gas exploration if only for our energy security. Germany especially is really at risk. Interesting times ahead for sure.

I think this should be considered in stages.

Coal-powered power stations aren't the devil, and they can be managed in terms of carbon emissions (co2 capture / offsetting erc) and pollution etc, and if they produce electricity to power EVs then they are certainly the better option compared to having millions of petrol and diesel engines burning fossil fuels in city centres.

Of course, ideally we'll have electricity from renewable resources or nuclear etc, but ultimately modern well-managed coal-powered power stations that reduce the number of ICE cars in city centres is certainly the lesser of two evils. And I wouldn't consider it as an excuse for us in the West to do nothing.

The other issue is overall energy consumption. We in the West are currently consuming far more energy per capita than countries like China or India, and it will be nigh-on impossible for us to convince these countries that because we're already using so much energy, their people will have to go without . Unless we lead by example, no country in the developing world will consider reducing their emissions.
 
Yes but the steam roller approach is nuts. Consumption is the main problem. It would be far better for the environment if we kept our ICE cars for far longer, rather than buying into EVs. The same with building developments. Architects have recently said that we should not be knocking down old buildings, and should instead renovate and re-develop the old stock. I’ve thought that for years..
In the case of housing, it is heavily skewed toward demolition of existing before building new because the VAT can be reclaimed on new build but not renovation.

The other major issue for me is the 1% of global emissions that the UK is responsible for, it’s a drop in the ocean. And it simply cannot be justified to expect us to accept these huge and expenses changes, whilst countries like China don’t give a toss.

Still, whenever there’s money involved….
China has committed to ceasing foreign investment in coal powered electricity generation - a step in the right direction and there may be more to come in the COP summit next month.
Also, our CO2 emissions would be higher and China's lower if we still produced goods. MJ's comment in post#1371 re lead by example is valid.
 
Not a bad idea, when considered in isolation. However:

1. How would you achieve that? By heavily taxing new cars? How much support can the government get for such a move?

2. The main killer of old cars is the ever-rising labour costs. Relatively young cars get scrapped after developing mundane faults - repairing a blown head gasket can cost £100 in materials (gaskets, oil, etc) and £500 in labour (including head skimming). How would you stop old cars from being scrapped? By putting a cap on hourly rates charged by garages? By removing VAT from car parts? Etc.

3. In almost all countries where cars are kept and maintained for many years, you find that the common factor is poverty. Firstly, people can't afford new cars, then labour costs are ridiculously low and old cars can be repaired in perpetuity. Add to this lack of regulation and very low safety standards (compared to Western countries), and you get cheap motoring for the masses. But it is nigh-on impossible to maintain this once a country becomes prosperous and adheres to Western standards.

4. How do you prevent another coal mining crisis? Cutting the sales of new cars will mean hundreds of thousands of job losses, direct and indirect, across car and parts manufacturers, dealers, finance companies etc (which was the reason that Blair introduced the original scrappage scheme after the 2008 economic crash).

I am not suggesting this is a bad idea... just that it is far more complicated than it seems. Personally, if going down that route, I would go further and reduce the level of car ownership in the UK, so fewer people have cars. But I think that idea is just as academic as keeping cars for longer.
I agree, we are reliant on consumption. And that’s why it’s painful to move away from it. I’m not just talking about cars, it’s everything. How many people have a 40 year old bathroom? Or kitchen? We do currently.

And yes, fewer people will have cars. That’s a given if we are forced into EVs. Personally I believe that’s part of the strategy.

Has anyone checked out heat pumps? And the government seriously think we should all be using them? They are off their heads and just clinging to any bit of available tech, and calling it the future.

We’re now suffering at work because our landlord has to bring the energy rating of the building up by 2023, and then pass the cost onto us. We just spent £4K efficient electric heaters that replaced 40 year old storage heaters. The EPC report says our new heaters have to go and replaced with heat pumps ffs! The worlds going nuts.
 
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In the case of housing, it is heavily skewed toward demolition of existing before building new because the VAT can be reclaimed on new build but not renovation.


China has committed to ceasing foreign investment in coal powered electricity generation - a step in the right direction and there may be more to come in the COP summit next month.
Also, our CO2 emissions would be higher and China's lower if we still produced goods. MJ's comment in post#1371 re lead by example is vali
In the case of housing, it is heavily skewed toward demolition of existing before building new because the VAT can be reclaimed on new build but not renovation.


China has committed to ceasing foreign investment in coal powered electricity generation - a step in the right direction and there may be more to come in the COP summit next month.
Also, our CO2 emissions would be higher and China's lower if we still produced goods. MJ's comment in post#1371 re lead by example is valid.

When we produce 1% of the global emissions, lead by example is nuts and not a price we should be paying.

Meanwhile China have promised to start reducing emissions by 2030 🤦
 
I agree, we are reliant on consumption. And that’s why it’s painful to move away from it. I’m not just talking about cars, it’s everything. How many people have a 40 year old bathroom? Or kitchen? We do currently.

And yes, fewer people will have cars. That’s a given if we are forced into EVs. Personally I believe that’s part of the strategy.

Has anyone checked out heat pumps? And the government seriously think we should all be using them? They are off their heads and just clinging to any bit of available tech, and calling it the future.

We’re now suffering at work because our landlord has to bring the energy rating of the building up by 2023, and then pass the cost onto us. We just spent £4K efficient electric heaters that replaced 40 year old storage heaters. The EPC report says our new heaters have to go and replaced with heat pumps ffs! The worlds going nuts.
Depressing to read the above - the truth often is!
Re the shift to heat pumps - shifting the green levy to gas from electricity seems to be the way they are to 'encourage' take-up of heat pumps. Can't help but wonder if that isn't the blueprint that will see ICE priced off of the roads with much higher taxed petrol, diesel and LPG under the banner of 'green levy'.
 
Depressing to read the above - the truth often is!
Re the shift to heat pumps - shifting the green levy to gas from electricity seems to be the way they are to 'encourage' take-up of heat pumps. Can't help but wonder if that isn't the blueprint that will see ICE priced off of the roads with much higher taxed petrol, diesel and LPG under the banner of 'green levy'.
It is worrying. I agree, I think the plan is to price ICE off the road.

Mine is a genuine concern. And I’m not bothered about EVs in terms of cost, if I have to have one I’ll get one. What about those that can’t ?
 
Another thing that occurred to me recently. Following COVID we are being encouraged to get back to the work place rather than work from home. Wouldn’t the opposite be better for the environment and our emissions problems? 🤷‍♂️
 
[URL ...When we produce 1% of the global emissions, lead by example is nuts and not a price we should be paying.

Meanwhile China have promised to start reducing emissions by 2030 🤦

So the West 'leading by example' does work, then?

Imagine if we kicked the whole emissions thing into the tall grass, and continued burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow. Would China still be reducing their emissions in 9 years time....? I think not.
 
Based on that logic, the leaders of these movements and protests (and any supporters for that matter) should not now be driving around in any ICE vehicles, or burning any type of fossil fuels.

As you say, lead by example.
 
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Based on that logic, the leaders of these movements and protests (and any supporters for that matter) should not now be driving around in any ICE vehicles, or burning any type of fossil fuels.

As you say, lead by example.

I couldn't agree more.

'Champaign Socialists' comes to mind.

I support the cause of emissions reduction and having a greener planet, but I do not condone blindly everything that is done in the name of this cause.
 

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