New petrol and diesel car sales will be 'banned from 2030'

[Deleted member 126969]

Very good question!

 

[zipdip]

I think we are seeing genuine panic coming from the car makers,they are lobbying the governments like mad to get more help selling these EV cars,added to that they are seeing car buyers just not buying anything at the moment,along with just 9% of car owners in this country would buy a EV car and you have the perfect storm.
The time scale is not in the car makers favour,they need sales going up quickly,they are spending a fortune on making electric cars,they are still making diesel and petrol cars and bringing out new models of every one,against that the car owner today with say a 2017 car on the drive can wait until 2032 at least before they need to buy another car,and it seems at the moment that joe public is doing just that,if it continues there will be car makers going to the wall.
In my mind a few more people would buy EV is the price of the car was lower and the charging situation was more extensive and by that I mean everywhere they have these chargers they must have at least 4 so reducing drivers fear of getting to a charge point and finding it is broken,also this free for all of companies running these chargers with all sorts of tariffs is making EV ownership less attractive,after all apart from when you need fuel on a motorway where you know they will spank your bottom,a diesel car owner at the worst might have to pay £2 more for a full tank at a rural garage.

 

[grober]

Bearing in mind the company car BIK arguements discussed elsewhere it would appear that some manufacturers can't supply enough EV models for the company car market such is the current demand. Meantime many are hedging their bets by bringing out EV or hybrid versions of existing ICE models. The private buyer market may be markedly different of course.

EV leasing pros and cons | Electric Mercedes models

forums.mbclub.co.uk

 

[chic0821]

All the low lifes will have a field day stealing all the charging cables & selling them to the local scrappy for the copper content. Expect a large tax increase on electricity prices as the fuel duty will diminish, so everyone in the country will be paying even though you don't have a car.

 

[190]

Bearing in mind the company car BIK arguements discussed elsewhere it would appear that some manufacturers can't supply enough EV models for the company car market such is the current demand

Vauxhall must wish they were one of those manufacturers. When I was looking at prices for small electric cars, I found that Arnold Clarke had 97 new pre-registered Corsa E models at big discounts on the list price. There are probably two factors at work here: 1. They are not selling them fast enough and 2. They needed to pre-register large numbers of EV's in an attempt to comply with the EU emissions targets or face punitive fines

 

[Bellow]

I genuinely hope it's true that EV's will be a comparable price to IC cars in the near future. I won't be holding my breath though.

Comparison is not always straight forward because many EV's are models in their own right but lets say I wanted a small shopping car for which an EV would be ideal. One comparison that can be made is the Vauxhall Corsa which is available with either power source. If I wanted one now a pre-registered Corsa E can be had for £23,500 and there are hundreds of them available. while a pre-registered 1.2 SE petrol is £11,500. They look the same to me but even if those two cars are not identical in trim and features it suggests EV's have a very long way to go yet. The running costs would offset some of the difference if enough miles were covered but this is a shopping car that might only do 3000 miles per year at most so pay back could take 20 years. When An EV shopping car can be had for £11,500 they will sell them in huge numbers.

That additional £12,000 has an associated carbon footprint no matter whether it accrues from manufacturing, transportation or administration and that's before it's even turned a wheel on the road.
Unless and until its electricity is generated absolutely from renewables that car is not an ecological solution to anything.

1990s - head long rush down the path of catalyctic convertors (despite certain manufacturers resistance) now lean burn (via direct petrol injection) is now better than diesel.
2000s - head long rush down the path of diesel. Now they can't be eradicated quickly enough.
Now there's another head long rush - down the path of electrification.

There is another elephant in the room - two actually.

The assumption that batteries at the end of their car life will be redeployed in stationary power banks. How's that going to work? A duff battery is a duff battery mobile or stationary. It will have to be disposed of.

Worse though, the whole concept of EV is predicated on interconnectivity between the cars and grid (I advocated the very same years ago) to ensure the grid can cope. We now understand that this adds discharge/charge cycles to a battery and a battery's life is defined in discharge/charge cycles. Expecting EV owners to sign up to this is somewhat optimistic. Expecting them to become EV owners and be forced into this even more so.

Unless these issues are addressed before we give up on ICE, we are going to risk losing our mobility. Worth considering perhaps that other endeavours could achieve the same reduction in CO2 as eradicating ICE vehicles. Elimination of meat consumption would achieve that. I mention this because everything should be on the discussion table as to how we achieve a (needed) reduction in CO2 production. Driving to the butchers in an ICE powered vehicle is no longer viable. Do you really want to have to walk to it? Is meat more important than mobility?

 

[grober]

The Corsa E picture is a complex one. Perhaps the result of General Motors past ambivalence towards EV. The Vauxhall Corsa E is of course an Opel and the future of both marques must be in question after the takeover by PSA who have their own EV lines. I suppose the crucial question is what part any model plays in the lucrative company car market-- e.g. how many new registrations are company cars as opposed to private buyers today. The taxation picture seems to be different for each sector. The BIK argument only holds good for company cars and I don't see the Corsa having a large role in that sector-hence the lack of demand, maybe I'm wrong. That said I agree that an affordable small EV for private purchase as yet to emerge from any manufacturer.

 

[grober]

All the low lifes will have a field day stealing all the charging cables & selling them to the local scrappy for the copper content. Expect a large tax increase on electricity prices as the fuel duty will diminish, so everyone in the country will be paying even though you don't have a car.

Like they don't steal, fuel, wheels and tyres and even entire ICE cars at the moment? Because it's difficult to differentiate between domestic and EV electricity in the home situation it's more likely EV taxation increases will be of road usage variety to replace government revenue from fuel.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

All the low lifes will have a field day stealing all the charging cables & selling them to the local scrappy for the copper content. Expect a large tax increase on electricity prices as the fuel duty will diminish, so everyone in the country will be paying even though you don't have a car.

Don’t you think per mile charges are more likely, ie tax the use of the car rather than the fuel, especially given that only a small proportion of electricity consumption will be used for charging cars?

 

[rf065]

Like they don't steal, fuel, wheels and tyres and even entire ICE cars at the moment?

A cable is a lot easier to steal than a whole car though.
Imagine every lamp post is a charging point, in less than 30 minutes they could have 100 cables to take to the scrap yard.

When I see pictures from Norway of cars parked all along a street plugged in to charging points, I think in the UK, the local youths will come home from the pub thinking it's a laugh to disconnect every single one of them.

 

[artyman]

I thought once it is in charging mode the plug is locked into the car.

 

[190]

I thought once it is in charging mode the plug is locked into the car.

They will be daft enough to use bolt cutters. Stealing live cable is not a new idea, you just need an insulated cutting device. With the right kit 11kV cables can be safely stolen.

 

[markjay]

Never knew lampposts could be charging points!

spotted in Wapping

View attachment 106990

That's from March 2020:

Maida Vale street is London's first 'electric avenue'

Sutherland Avenue becomes Westminster's first 'Electric Avenue', as borough clocks up 296 lamp column charge points – more than any other borough

www.standard.co.uk

 

[Spider10]

They will give you the incentive to buy EV's then just tax them the same as ice cars, the nissan leaf was on 5th gear last night with a cost of £33,000 that's a whole lot of money for a milkfloat

 

[markjay]

Vauxhall is a UK brand, and in spite of having the same parent company (GM) as Opel since 1925 (or, rather, 1929), Vauxhall have been producing their own independent model range up to the late seventies.

Traditionally Ford and Vauxhall were the two best-selling marques in the UK for many years, so it would be a bold move for PSA to kill-off the Vauxhall brand name altogether (though future Vauxhall-badged cars might be tenadhed Citroëns or Peugeots).

Another possible outcome is that the different brand name will coexist under PSA in the same way as VAG.

 

[davymead]

Covid restrictions taken into the mix at the moment, friends in the second hand trade have said they’ve never had it so good.

 

[SW18]

I thought once it is in charging mode the plug is locked into the car.

I watched a friend plug in their Tesla. The plug is very sturdy and does indeed lock firmly in place. When handling 50kW it needs to.

I’ve not heard of charger cables being stolen, I don’t think it would be possible for drunk youths to do. Of course, as EVs become more numerous, there are sure to be professionals who do it, just as there are thieves who takes bits off ICE cars.

 

[190]

Now here's a forecast of future EV prices that I actually believe.

They are not going to get substantially cheaper by as much halving in price, they will fall slowly and the only way they will reach parity with IC cars is because the the IC cars will get relatively more expensive until they meet in the middle. If there was one certainty about the 2030 ban it was that motoring is going to get a good deal more expensive.

An interesting prediction is that only countries with a greenish electricity generation mix will be able to sell batteries to the car manufacturers so that they are able to claim acceptable lifetime CO2 emissions for the vehicle.

Richard Parry-Jones: cost parity between EVs and ICE cars will be “about 2026” | Autocar

 

[davymead]

As with every part of life, it’s only about money, and therefore people involved in the vehicle industry will give their view on the future along the lines of what suits they’re own ‘personal’ development or advancement. It’s normal human behaviour and a lot of what I’ve read about the future of EV’s seems to me to be pure speculation. Boris and his missus might have their own agenda, but the actual ergonomics are a different matter. My own personal view of course.

 

[MercedesDriver]

If an electric vehicle is using a 40 kWh battery its embedded emissions from manufacturing would then be equivalent to the CO2 emissions caused by driving a diesel car with a fuel consumption of 5 litre per 100 km in between 11,800 km and 89,400 km before the electric car even has driven one meter. While the lower range might not be significant the latter would mean an electric car would have a positive climate impact first after seven years for the European average driver
Source:
https://www.transportenvironment.or...lysis_CO2_footprint_lithium-ion_batteries.pdf