RBS shares... Up or down?

[Carrotchomper]

To be honest, I get far more enjoyment out of the "calculated" risk than gentle depreciation in the bank.

My initial plan was to hold the RBS shares for a couple of days and sell at whatever "dead cat bounce" they could muster. If that doesn't happen then I'm happy to hold onto them for quite a while. There is more than enough capacity in the historical highs for a decent profit.

I did quite want to try shorting some shares but don't know enough yet. I am happy for it to be a developing hobby. I mean, all of my other hobbies cost loads of money

Account is with Barclay's Stockbrokers. Initial trade fees are quite high but they come down sharply once you do a couple of trades.

Have 2 days off now. Implanted on sofa in front of Bloomberg to find "angles"

 

[janner]

its gonna take you a long time to make that £13 back up

£26 because he'll also pay to sell. Add in the spread and the share will have to increase well over 30% to make a few pence profit.

 

[verytalldave]

Go and buy 10 shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

Now THAT IS a gamble worth making...............

 

[Dryce]

Lets face it, anything and everything is possible now? who would have for-told all this eighteen months ago?

Actually there was an interesting article in the Economist just as the whole mess started to break 18 months ago. It gave three outline scenarios - storm that can be weathered, downturn, meltdown.

In terms of the banks we're in the last scenario already.

One surprise I suspect is the oil price. I don't think people thought it would drop.

The media is still headlining predictable sh*t as if it is surprise news. eg. unemployment and public financing figures. The torrent of UK bad news means that we're not really getting much on the rest of the world.

There are some huge problems out there. The Middle East was awash with money. Now oil prices have gone down. And the gulf countries' investments have gone down. It looks like Malaysia's balance of payments have gone negative. China is in surplus still but that masks a drop in imports that is offsetting the loss of export revenue. And what about Eastern Europe and Russia?

The other thing to remember is that it has been 18 months - remember Northern Rock? That was Sep 2007. The media and traders are generating urgent headlines and statements as if things happen in days. It's not helped by the traders who are extrapolating day to day where things are heading in the longer term. It's a bit like spinning the wheel a supertanker backwards and forwards based on watching the waves just ahead of the bow.

It does concern me that the government is being pushed to make hasty decisions as a result.

 

[Mudster]

Go and buy 10 shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

Now THAT IS a gamble worth making...............

That's not a gamble though is it.

I once started to read Warren Buffets Autobiography....I Like a rags to riches story, I'm interested in how they got there.

Page one explains how in the 1950's family and friends "gave" Buffet $250,000 to start his fund and set him up in premises....the equivalent of over $5 Million today.....that was it, I wasn't interested from that point onwards.

Sure He's done well..Give me $5 million and no overheads and I'll build you a tasty business also....

 

[maddog]

Even if they are nationalised for shareholders that may well be preferable to a take over

Real shame my BIL works for RBS and has had his bonuses paid in stock for a few years , he has lost a lot of money but i'm sure he could have seen this coming , most people did

 

[Ade B]

That's not a gamble though is it.

I once started to read Warren Buffets Autobiography....I Like a rags to riches story, I'm interested in how they got there.

Page one explains how in the 1950's family and friends "gave" Buffet $250,000 to start his fund and set him up in premises....the equivalent of over $5 Million today.....that was it, I wasn't interested from that point onwards.

Sure He's done well..Give me $5 million and no overheads and I'll build you a tasty business also....

Ah, the original self made man then... bet he had some tough times on the edge..

 

[Carrotchomper]

Even if they are nationalised for shareholders that may well be preferable to a take over

Real shame my BIL works for RBS and has had his bonuses paid in stock for a few years , he has lost a lot of money but i'm sure he could have seen this coming , most people did

Long term, nationalisation may be the best thing for the company... Bit of stability and steady growth. Perhaps

 

[crockers]

£26 because he'll also pay to sell. Add in the spread and the share will have to increase well over 30% to make a few pence profit.

No stamp duty on sale only brokerage fees... so selling is cheaper than buying

Go and buy 10 shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

Now THAT IS a gamble worth making...............

No - the cost of dealing in US stocks is prohibitive.......You need to buy in bulk to make it worthwhile and then you have currency to contend with.

 

[grober]

I would cash them in and put the money on the filly BASKET CASE running in the
JOB CENTRE PLUS STAKES at 3pm at Musselburgh this afternoon. No sense in prolonging the agony.

 

[scumbag]

I have all my investments with RBS and my bank accounts. When I say investments, I mean my mortgages.

In fact I owe them so much, I hope they go out of business and I can stop paying!!!!!

Still, as long as I keep paying the repayments, it will be interesting to see what they do.


And I am waiting to laugh of the first person who says they have moved their money for the RBS to NatWest!!!!


ho-hum

 

[scumbag]

Give me $5 million and no overheads and I'll build you a tasty business also....

I think I would prefer that to read

Give me $5 million....

don't you?

 

[Dryce]

I
And I am waiting to laugh of the first person who says they have moved their money for the RBS to NatWest!!!!

I know someone who has split funds in that were in RBS between both RBS and NatWest.

The banking licences are still separate.

 

[scumbag]

I know someone who has split funds in that were in RBS between both RBS and NatWest.

The banking licences are still separate.

I guess the point I am making is, if RBS is safe, then the NatWest is safe, but if RBS is having a problem, having your money in one of the RBS groups other banks, is not safe. I am not suggesting that NatWest would not be sold on to save it, but I would not move my money from the fire, back into the frying pan.

I have never been one for mass hysteria, nor panic. And as far as I can see, who owns the rights to recieve my payments of the £268k they gave me is not something I am worrying about.

maybe different if you have your money in their property however.

Banks! safe as houses!.......moral......have money in the houses.

 

[Ade B]

I guess the point I am making is, if RBS is safe, then the NatWest is safe, but if RBS is having a problem, having your money in one of the RBS groups other banks, is not safe. I am not suggesting that NatWest would not be sold on to save it, but I would not move my money from the fire, back into the frying pan.

I have never been one for mass hysteria, nor panic. And as far as I can see, who owns the rights to recieve my payments of the £268k they gave me is not something I am worrying about.

maybe different if you have your money in their property however.

Banks! safe as houses!.......moral......have money in the houses.

Yes, but what about cash...

I have some (not a vast amount but a lot for us) sat in an RBS account depreciating slowly - am I correct in thinking that even if RBS goes belly up, the Govt will refund my cash as in the Icelandic fiasco..


Ade

 

[Peterdon]

Up to £50000

 

[Ade B]

Up to £50000

Well that'll cover it and some..

Ade

 

[scumbag]

Yes, but what about cash...

Ade

you do have an answer to that already.

The Safe as houses comment was coined to get people to leave money in the bank instead of in a carboard box under the bed. Hence, safe as houses! Of course, if the bank burns down, your money is still yours. They don't actually have a bit of safe with some cash in with your name on it.

If your house burns down, the money you had, is gone.

Thing is, people have their life savings tied up in the bank, and the bank goes out of business so does they life savings as the gaurantees were never upped to reflect todays savings. They have been adjusted since northern rock had a wobble.

I just chose to get the banks to give me lots of their money, and tied it up for them. As long as I can pay my bits, and are not unreasonable about it, if they go out of business, I still have their money tied up. So it would be interesing to see how they would get at it. They would say its an investment as I am paying more then I have tied up, over the longer term, and thats its invested in an appreciating asset. But as we know, the houses having a price correction!!!!! (just like Climate correction really) so they may not be able to get what they paid for it. and they would have to remove me too, and as I can still pay, and are being reasonable......you can see the problem them have?

 

[crockers]

If they go out of business - your mortgage is an asset on their books and will be sold off to another institution who will collect your payments.....You wont notice a thing............until you default....

 

[scumbag]

true.


the guy who is suing the RBS is playing a clever game in one respect. The amount he lost is not anywhere near the cost of the RBS defence team. This means they could just offer him his money back, or it will reduce the actual cost he would pay them when he loses!

I say when, as he is too intelligent to not know that shares go down as well as up.

However, he, and a few of his associates spend a lot of time in court, usually against my employer, over the most trivial of issues normally.

I would want the RBS to fight this agressively and with no mercy. They need to make an example now, so that it does not cause problems for themselves and others in the future. Courts should not be used for this kind of stupidity.

They should be used for those how have transgressed laws we all know and abide by, or those who feel they are being treated unfairly, illegally, or unreasonably. Losing £1000 in share value is none of those. What would happen if they double in value instead of dropped. Could the RBS sue him for the difference? I mean, thats money they could have earned.


But look at this for a point of view. when you bought your car, did you, at any point, have anywhere in the contract, read a statement that your car will fall in value?

Imagine if this guy won! you could take the motor manufacturers to court. Be worth a go wouldn't it?

At least everyone who buys shares knows they can go down....except our friend in the link I posted.