spanish property crash

[mark.t]

other countries soon to follow ...with the interest rate up this year in our country...... hard times look set to follow.....give it a year and its buying time again

 

[Alfie]

other countries soon to follow ...with the interest rate up this year in our country...... hard times look set to follow.....give it a year and its buying time again

The property crash in Spain is very different from anything here. There wont be a crash here unless the pundits who try to force one get their way. The last time there was a crash interest rates were circa 15%. People were scared of losing their jobs. Those conditions are not here. The market may plateua or level off a bit but it wont crash.

The Spanish crash is due to over building, property seizure putting buyers off and of course the large scale fraud that has been going on in the planning departments. These conditions are not present here.

There's nowt so safe as bricks and mortar.

 

[television]

There's nowt so safe as bricks and mortar.

Depends on what its built on

 

[Rory]

You should see the figures from some parts of the US - it's a bit regional but some new home builders are getting 50%+ of sales cancelled and resale prices have falled 30-40%.

I don't see a crash in the UK though - there's just too much pent up demand from people who can't quite afford property and always a limited supply. Prices where I am have stagnated for a while, but I live in a typical family house that most typical families couldn't afford now, so there's very little mobility here.

I'm sure that as prices weaken, new buyers would start to come into the market.

 

[clegsr]

US House Prices....

I dont know about Spanish House prices, but if you want to scare yourself about US House prices look at this and then tell me that the US market isnt overvalued...

 

[wongl]

The last time there was a crash interest rates were circa 15%. People were scared of losing their jobs. Those conditions are not here. The market may plateua or level off a bit but it wont crash.

I have been wondering for some time how the effect of off-shoring to the likes of India and now China might effect the British economy, not to mention competition caused by the arrival of cheaper labour such as builders, tradesman, nursers and now doctors.

Apart from a few reports in the local papers claiming that British builders in London are finding it hard to compete with cheaper labour, the British economy seems not to have been effected by any of this. Very strange, maybe a stable base rate is the key to it all.

 

[Howard]

The chap who owns Foxtons has just sold up lock stock and barrel ( for £380m) and is going to the states to set up another company , because property prices are so low over there at the mo ...

I could do without a crash here TBH

 

[BenzComander]

Not sure there will be a crash, but the housing market needs new people buying them to keep the "fire" burning.

Prices cant keep rising, as wages will not keep pace. Already seeing 5 times your income mortgages, it does not take much of an interest rate rise to push people over the edge at that size of borrowing.

 

[mark.t]

The property crash in Spain is very different from anything here. There wont be a crash here unless the pundits who try to force one get their way. The last time there was a crash interest rates were circa 15%. People were scared of losing their jobs. Those conditions are not here. The market may plateua or level off a bit but it wont crash.

The Spanish crash is due to over building, property seizure putting buyers off and of course the large scale fraud that has been going on in the planning departments. These conditions are not present here.

There's nowt so safe as bricks and mortar.

.agreed on this but its the same now people have remortgage taken out loans credit cards its all compounded ....back then you paid 90 grand for a detached in the last couple of years you paid 180 grand same difference ..... the interest rate would only have to reach 7% ...8% and people would be in the same boat as back then ...as for over building even they are struggling to sell off plot ....... bricks and mortar are not that safe......for investment

 

[mark.t]

I have been wondering for some time how the effect of off-shoring to the likes of India and now China might effect the British economy, not to mention competition caused by the arrival of cheaper labour such as builders, tradesman, nursers and now doctors.

Apart from a few reports in the local papers claiming that British builders in London are finding it hard to compete with cheaper labour, the British economy seems not to have been effected by any of this. Very strange, maybe a stable base rate is the key to it all.

a guy on the other sude of town employed polish builders ..... very cheep but the finish is very DIY.....the building inspector just passed it .....

 

[Satch]

The Spanish property crash is about to be replicated in the UK buy to let market, especially those towns where 100's of B2L flats have been thrown up and marketed to mugs trying to get in on the act too late.

Rentals have dropped thanks to oversupply and void periods are more common. Interest rates are likley to go up 1/4% next week. Average sale price of these places has dropped by at least 5% over the past 3 months in my area.

Mortgage providers are pulling back, some now not lending to first timers in the B2L market or anybody who does not have at least a £75K income. Rental coverage required 110% minimum and 70/75% max loan to value ratio.

The sound of a stable door being nailed shut

 

[kth286]

July 2003 bank base rate was at a low of 3.5%.

The rate have been adjusted by the Bank 10 times (not always upward) and now stands at 5.5 %.

That is an increase of some 57%

If you had told someone when their mortgage started 4 years ago at say £600 per month it would be £942 per month in 4 years time, would many of them have bought the house?

Inflation creeps up on you, and for may people that makes life not affordable anymore.

 

[Dieselman]

July 2003 bank base rate was at a low of 3.5%.

The rate have been adjusted by the Bank 10 times (not always upward) and now stands at 5.5 %.

That is an increase of some 57%

If you had told someone when their mortgage started 4 years ago at say £600 per month it would be £942 per month in 4 years time, would many of them have bought the house?

Inflation creeps up on you, and for may people that makes life not affordable anymore.

In 1988 we took a mortgage out at 9.8% and within a few weeks of moving in it was 16.25%.
That hurt but we kept going.

Mortgage rates are still very cheap at the moment and as a percentage of earnings not much is being spent on mortgages.

Sorry no sympathy.

 

[janner]

Part of the Spanish problem is oversupply, land grab, better value elsewhere and so on but the reason Spain has boomed so much in recent years is partly because of UK property price rises. People feel richer because their house is worth more so they can borrow and buy holiday homes.
If a crash is going to happen in the UK then logically it will be preceded by a crash in holiday homes and buy-to-lets.
Is Spain the tip of the iceberg? I'm not convinced yet, but...

 

[Dieselman]

I really doubt there will be a UK property price crash for a number of reasons. The single biggest reason is that more people now live singly than ever before and at the moment there are about 62 million residents. This figure is set to rise to 69 million within about 30 ears. That should keep the pressure on demand.
There may be price slackening in certain overpriced areas so there will be some smoothing in those areas, but as a nation prices are set to hold for a while then rise again.

 

[R2e]

I have been wondering for some time how the effect of off-shoring to the likes of India and now China might effect the British economy, not to mention competition caused by the arrival of cheaper labour such as builders, tradesman, nursers and now doctors.

Apart from a few reports in the local papers claiming that British builders in London are finding it hard to compete with cheaper labour, the British economy seems not to have been effected by any of this. Very strange, maybe a stable base rate is the key to it all.

I would guess it will eventually have an effect. The net result of offshoring to India/China and the influx of cheap labour is unemployment, can't help but be anything else, which we, as taxpayers, are coughing up for while the companies doing the offshoring and using cheap labour push up their profits. We moved from manufacturing then into finance and high tech when the manufacturing jobs vanished to third world countries, but now our finance and high tech jobs are moving, what next?

The sad thing is offshoring is not as successful as it would appear, qualifications, service and knowledge are never as good as they should be - to a great extent you get what you pay for, but what will happen when we have no more engineers/accountants/computer experts being produced by our education system because there will be no jobs for them?

I cannot believe the shortsightedness of large british companies which will offshore vital parts of their business in an attempt to make a bigger profit (rarely to provide a cheaper service) whilst ignoring the risk they are taking.

Just goes to show, what we should be offshoring is management, and might be a good idea to offshore the government as well in the interests of saving the taxpayer money.

 

[Dieselman]

and might be a good idea to offshore the government as well in the interests of saving the taxpayer money.

My Father always said the best decision a new Govenment could take would be to take a 4 year holiday...

It appears you agree..

 

[R2e]

My Father always said the best decision a new Govenment could take would be to take a 4 year holiday...

It appears you agree..

I do indeed. Without wishing to be political I think the best thing any government could do is nothing. Wouldn't a hung parliament where MP's of all complexions would have to agree before doing anything be wonderful................no I'm dreaming again

 

[Howard]

My mortgage has risen from £720 a month when i took it out (Dec 2003) and it's now £840 odd ....

Every quarter of a percent rise costs me £25 ....

 

[recycled]

There's nowt so safe as bricks and mortar.

Not if its built on a sandy beach without foundations