Tesla Model 3 @ £26,000

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A version of a Ponzi scheme propped up by mug retail punters with a messianic (to date at least!) belief Elon?

Published yesterday by Value Investor Club 46 pages but the bottom line is - Pg 1 "We believe Tesla's stock price is on the precipice of a spectacular collapse."

Pg 25 - "Tesla is in effect a modified Ponzi scheme. Throughout its history, the company has financed its operations by announcing a new product (originally the roadster, then the Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, the Semi, the roadster 2, and now the Model Y as well as the vaporware full self driving package) and then taking deposits for the product before it has ever designed a production system for the product. The company then spends the deposits on operating expenses and the capital expenses to manufacture the original product. When the company is close to running out of funds, the company announces a new product and takes deposits on it in order to finish the production of the first product. Since 2008, 78% of TSLA's cash flow from operations has come from customer deposits!"

Dropbox - TSLA writeup VIC 3 17.pdf
So many of the financial guru's keep saying that Tesla will need a massive rights issue / cash injection and then he announces a new product. Virtually all of the car manufacturers are scaling back and closing factories due to a drop in demand for cars generally - where will Tesla be in a year or two when major manufacturers like Jaguar, Mercedes, Audi etc. have their EV's well established and eaten into his market and people aren't so keen on waiting almost a year to receive a car they haven't test driven or even sat in. I can see him becoming another Laker where the market defeats him because he doesn't have the cash to see off the opposition. It would be sad but when you cease to be a niche player and take on the big boys you have to have deep pockets.
Who would you prefer to have a 5 year warranty with - MB / Jaguar or Tesla USA ?
 
A version of a Ponzi scheme propped up by mug retail punters with a messianic (to date at least!) belief Elon?

Published yesterday by Value Investor Club 46 pages but the bottom line is - Pg 1 "We believe Tesla's stock price is on the precipice of a spectacular collapse."

Pg 25 - "Tesla is in effect a modified Ponzi scheme. Throughout its history, the company has financed its operations by announcing a new product (originally the roadster, then the Model S, the Model X, the Model 3, the Semi, the roadster 2, and now the Model Y as well as the vaporware full self driving package) and then taking deposits for the product before it has ever designed a production system for the product. The company then spends the deposits on operating expenses and the capital expenses to manufacture the original product. When the company is close to running out of funds, the company announces a new product and takes deposits on it in order to finish the production of the first product. Since 2008, 78% of TSLA's cash flow from operations has come from customer deposits!"

Dropbox - TSLA writeup VIC 3 17.pdf
Sounds a bit like riding a bike - you're alright as long as you keep pedaling; stop pedaling and you fall over.....
 
Just returned from California where I managed to rent a Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor model for 3 days, and I did a lot of real world testing to see what it was like to live with in a variety of situations. I am a reservation holder, and will be sharing my thoughts in detail tomorrow once I get some rest, but there were some things I discovered during my testing, which are making me think about cancelling my reservation. I can tell you one thing quickly, the car when fully charged showed a range of 308 miles, and most of my driving was on the freeway at high speeds with quite a bit of acceleration, and I still got an actual range of 260 miles in that scenario.
 
260 miles range.... that's not half bad?
 
Wouldn't be enough for me living in North Scotland, its a 310 mile trip to the brother in law for 1 trip
 
So just returned from a trip to Silicon Valley in the USA where I had a Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor for 3 days and around 450 miles.

I'm a UK reservation holder, and wanted to see what it's actually like to live with in the real world. Here are some of my observations. I drove mostly in London, so was looking at how well it would suit urban environments here. It was riding on the 18 inch rims. I have mixed emotions about the car. I do think it's an unfinished product though.

Pros:
Estimated range of 308 miles at full charge. Got 258 miles in mostly high speed freeway driving with plenty of rapid acceleration. I suspect if I kept the regen on and drove in urban traffic, I would be getting even above the 308 miles.

Performance felt very strong all the way up to speed limit of 65mph. You barely need to step on the gas pedal in normal traffic. I don't think I ever needed to press the pedal all the way, as it felt like a rocketship (0-60 in 4.5 seconds) and whatever gap you need to squeeze into, you don't even think twice.

Ride was very impressive. It was so smooth and well controlled, I went over speed bumps at 30mph, and it handled them extremely well. I figure it's the weight of the batteries. That is a real plus point for me as I have to drive over so many speed bumps every day in London.

Brakes felt like a normal car. Didn't have to do an emergency stop, but when slowing down quickly from speed, they did what was asked.

Handling and grip were good, but not as good as you'd find in a well set up 3 series.

Speedo on central screen not an issue. I had a similar setup on my Prius, and it's actually better than having a regular speedo behind the wheel

Surprisingly comfortable seats in the front and lots of room to stretch out, even though the seats don't have extendable thigh support.

Parked at shopping mall for dinner one night. Placed it in Park, and screen said software update available, so I started the update and went to dinner.
When I came back, things like sentry and dog mode had been added with the update.

Supercharging was easy, I was getting 250-280 miles per hour charge rate at the superchargers I tried (including at the Fremont factory) - so total time for supercharging was about 1hr 20mins at worst case.

LED headlights felt very bright and illuminated the road very well.

Autopilot with autosteer worked well for certain scenarios, such as stop start traffic in freeway jams (up to 25mph) - I did stay in the lane even at 65mph when the freeway was curving quite a bit, but I still didn't trust it 100%. Yes, it could change lane for me when I indicated, but would often do so very slowly like a learner driver. Sometimes that feature wasn't effective as many drivers there are quite aggressive on the freeway and would speed up as soon as you indicated to move into the gap in another lane.

Sound system was incredible. Very low levels of distortion even at high volumes.

No creaks or rattles from interior. Yes, the interior feels very cheap quality but it was well constructed.

Cool minimalist design with hardly any buttons apart from on the steering wheel.

Ventilation was good, I left it on Auto (outside temp was 23C) and no complaints.

The car's 8 cameras picked up pedestrians crossing in front of me, motorbikes, cars, vans, trucks, cyclists either side of me. In terms of being able to detect those different shapes and showing on the main screen. It highlights how their path towards full self driving mode one day.

Cons:
The software is buggy. The most alarming moment was when I was driving at night on the freeway in the left lane at 65mph and I set it on autopilot and autosteer. A few seconds later, the screen went black. About 30 seconds later, the Tesla symbol pops up on the screen and 30 seconds later the screen was back, albeit with no live traffic info due to no internet. I have no idea what exactly happened, but it was scary as hell.

At least once a day, when selecting reverse gear, the rear camera would just show a black screen.

Having to use the menus on the main touch screen for virtually everything was a hassle in my opinion. Adjusting wing mirrors, air flow, heated seats for rear passengers. Best to set all of this before you start your journey, otherwise it's dangerous to have to look down at the screen for 3-5 seconds to adjust something whilst driving.

It had blind spot warning when changing lanes, but instead of the warning coming on the wing mirror like most cars, the warning comes on the main screen, which is quite dangerous in my opinion, as it means you have to take your eyes off the road and look down to see if the screen shows the car in lane you want to move into is coloured red instead of grey. The 8 cameras on the car are 'seeing' the vehicles around you all the time and show that in real time on the main screen.

The built in mapping was weird. Every time I got directions to a supercharger, it would take me to the general area of the supercharger, but then I had to pull out google maps on my phone to get directions in the mall car park to the actual supercharger location.

Front visibility - thick A pillars - not helpful for spotting pedestrians and cyclists in urban areas.

When I turned up at the Fremont factory at around 9pm at night on a weekday, all of the supercharger stalls were full, and I had to wait for 5 minutes for someone to leave. That location was subject to a 40 minute charge limit.

Quite a bit of wind noise noticeable at high speeds.

Bluetooth call quality was crap. People on the other end of the call described my voice as sounding like I was on a windy beach. That was at 65mph. When I had pulled off and was driving at 20mph, they said the call quality improved a lot, but still pretty average. If I got the car, I would buy a bluetooth headset from Plantronics.

Voice control not great. Can use for navigation, telephone and music, i.e. if you ask it to set the temperature it can't do that yet.

Turning circle is atrociously wide for the size of the car. It felt ponderous when doing U-turns on regular streets and in car parks.

I tried the Navigate on Autopilot feature which actually drives you on and off the freeway too. It was very weird for the car at 65mph to indicate by itself and move over to the exit lane and then take the off-ramp, and suddenly slow down to 25mph (which is the advisory limit for the off ramp) - I would have done the exit more smoothly, but this is a beta feature though.

When engaging autopilot with autosteer at speed, the car would shift slightly to the left in the lane and then centre itself. I found that disconcerting if a car was alongside me in the lane to the left. Just like many cars with adaptive cruise, the car would suddenly brake sharply for no reason, even though the lane ahead was clear, but because there was a truck in the lane next to me. Tesla owners out there seem to have too much faith in Autopilot. I saw a lady next to me turning the pages of a book at the wheel whilst going past me at 80mph round a freeway that was curving, and she didn't have her hands on the wheel. Another guy I met had installed a workstation in his Model 3, so he could type emails on his laptop during the morning commute on Autopilot. Completely bonkers and dangerous as hell. They should rename Autopilot to something else.

Fonts on the main screen are very small, and hard to read imho. In terms of ETA for navigation, or even the current speed limit on the road you're on.

No electric boot closure. Not necessarily a big deal for me as I'm quite tall, but may be a problem for those owners who are closer to 5 foot and who would struggle to reach. One very dim light in the boot. Not a deal breaker per se, but why can't they illuminate the inside of the boot properly.

Getting in the car is not going to be easy for anyone with limited mobility, i.e. if you have someone who is disabled or elderly to ferry around.
Additionally, the door handles from the outside would not be easy for anyone with limited dexterity in their fingers, because you have to push hard with your thumb and then grab the handle that pops out with the other four fingers. It's a car designed for people under 40.

When reversing both wing mirrors drop down, and you have the rear camera, but there is no 360 camera (which I am used to and would want on this car, especially as it helps me with reducing chance of kerbing rims)

Rear camera resolution not great, especially at night (compared to Mercedes, imho)

I was blown away by how many model 3s were out there. I remember once on the freeway, there was one either side of me, and one in front of me. It's a very wealthy part of the world, but still quite weird to see some suburbs where most homes had 1-2 Teslas in the driveway.

The Tesla owners I met seemed to be quite forgiving of the flaws. One guy said his seat cushion on his Model 3 fell apart after delivery, but Tesla replaced the seat, and it had more quality problems, but he loves the car, the brand and Elon Musk.

Given this car is likely to be £50-60,000 when it launches here this year, compared to cars in that price range, you would find that the build quality and materials used were from a car costing £10-12,000. Buy this car for the technology, the software and the batteries as that's where Tesla has spent the money. I do feel this car has been designed to support the eventual aim of full self driving for the freeways in California and hence that's why it's so flawed in many ways from the perspective of someone who lives and drives mostly on congested narrow London roads.

Will I be cancelling my reservation? Probably not but I am much more aware that I would probably be having to put up with buggy software and that the software updates over time will help resolve some of the bugs. I am keen to switch to an electric car this year, and compared to other EVs, even with the many flaws, the Model 3 still feels superior, imho. I'm an early adopter of new tech and having the Model 3 this year is useful for my work in the tech industry to be able to understand what it's like to live with on a longer term basis.
 
A very balanced and fair review - it also confirms what a lot of other reviews across the web say about the good and bad points. You made a very interesting point about the market it is designed for. Thinking about it, major car manufacturers do seem to design cars based on their home market despite exporting far more cars - Merc & BMW make excellent high speed autobahn cruisers, the Japanese make excellent small cars for crowded cities, Chrysler & GM ‘wafters’ for very long straight roads, Jaguar & Aston Martin for fast cornering on underlating roads.
 
As I only do 100-150 miles per week at most the real world range would be fine and the pricing is competitive.

But there's no way in hell I would ever let it drive itself and I wouldn't want to be visiting the dealer with constant faults
 
Thanks for a really informative review from a real user, rather than a journo with an angle.

The overwhelming message I drew from it was that it's an amateurish automotive product designed by people who don't understand the core requirements properly - or at least don't ascribe to them an appropriate level of importance - and that owners justify their purchase (lease?) decision by pointing at the "cool tech". Never mind that it doesn't work and occasionally tries to kill me, it does cool things like updating itself to add new features while I'm asleep. (That's not a dig at @raspy, BTW, just a general observation.)

These two comments particularly drew my attention:
Cool minimalist design with hardly any buttons apart from on the steering wheel.
Having to use the menus on the main touch screen for virtually everything was a hassle in my opinion. Adjusting wing mirrors, air flow, heated seats for rear passengers. Best to set all of this before you start your journey, otherwise it's dangerous to have to look down at the screen for 3-5 seconds to adjust something whilst driving.
"Cool minimalist design" is worthless if - as it clearly does - it makes control of the car more difficult. I fundamentally disagree with the current trend (and it's not just Tesla that are guilty here) of removing tactile controls and relocating them to non-tactile touch panels that have to be looked at to operate them. I'm not sure whether the rush to do this is driven by a desire to save money or to be seen to be adopting "cool technology". Whichever, it is terribly wrong and absolutely will end in carnage.
 
As I only do 100-150 miles per week at most the real world range would be fine and the pricing is competitive.

But there's no way in hell I would ever let it drive itself and I wouldn't want to be visiting the dealer with constant faults

@Yugguy Do you use any driver assistance tech at the moment, like adaptive cruise? Does your car have an automatic gearbox or airbags? If so, you have already ceded some control over to the car in terms of it decides when to change gear or when to deploy the airbags. I don't know how it works here, but Tesla mobile service seems quite good in the US where they come out to you.
 
Thanks for a really informative review from a real user, rather than a journo with an angle.

The overwhelming message I drew from it was that it's an amateurish automotive product designed by people who don't understand the core requirements properly - or at least don't ascribe to them an appropriate level of importance - and that owners justify their purchase (lease?) decision by pointing at the "cool tech". Never mind that it doesn't work and occasionally tries to kill me, it does cool things like updating itself to add new features while I'm asleep. (That's not a dig at @raspy, BTW, just a general observation.)

These two comments particularly drew my attention:"Cool minimalist design" is worthless if - as it clearly does - it makes control of the car more difficult. I fundamentally disagree with the current trend (and it's not just Tesla that are guilty here) of removing tactile controls and relocating them to non-tactile touch panels that have to be looked at to operate them. I'm not sure whether the rush to do this is driven by a desire to save money or to be seen to be adopting "cool technology". Whichever, it is terribly wrong and absolutely will end in carnage.

@st13phil Glad you enjoyed the review. It was very useful to live with the car for 3 days. The only hope is that Tesla expand the voice interface via software updates so that you can do more using natural language, such as MB UX in the A class, where you can simply say, "My feet are cold"
 
So many of the financial guru's keep saying that Tesla will need a massive rights issue / cash injection and then he announces a new product. Virtually all of the car manufacturers are scaling back and closing factories due to a drop in demand for cars generally - where will Tesla be in a year or two when major manufacturers like Jaguar, Mercedes, Audi etc. have their EV's well established and eaten into his market and people aren't so keen on waiting almost a year to receive a car they haven't test driven or even sat in. I can see him becoming another Laker where the market defeats him because he doesn't have the cash to see off the opposition. It would be sad but when you cease to be a niche player and take on the big boys you have to have deep pockets.
Who would you prefer to have a 5 year warranty with - MB / Jaguar or Tesla USA ?

it will be interesting to see how Dyson fare with their EV next year...
 
It had blind spot warning when changing lanes, but instead of the warning coming on the wing mirror like most cars, the warning comes on the main screen, which is quite dangerous in my opinion, as it means you have to take your eyes off the road and look down to see if the screen shows the car in lane you want to move into is coloured red instead of grey. The 8 cameras on the car are 'seeing' the vehicles around you all the time and show that in real time on the main screen.

Could that be to cater for the American set-up of being able to overtake on either side? (Just a guess.)

Comprehensive review. Very useful for anyone contemplating buying one I'd imagine.
 
@Yugguy Do you use any driver assistance tech at the moment, like adaptive cruise? Does your car have an automatic gearbox or airbags? If so, you have already ceded some control over to the car in terms of it decides when to change gear or when to deploy the airbags. I don't know how it works here, but Tesla mobile service seems quite good in the US where they come out to you.

I'll accept and use passive tech but not active tech. I'll never use tech that tries to park for me or change lanes for me or read speed signs for me.

Interestingly the complaint about having to use touch screen to do basic stuff has been levelled at the new Corolla. In my C I can temporarily turn off the parking sensors with a button - quite useful. In the Corolla it's five levels down a touch screen heirarchy.
 
In my C I can temporarily turn off the parking sensors with a button - quite useful. In the Corolla it's five levels down a touch screen heirarchy.

Just curious ... when/why do you need to turn the parking sensors off?
 
lol lower range car is priced 60000€ in Finland... and they are amazed why electric cars are not selling....
 
I loved the review too, thanks. I would consider a Tesla or similar once there is a charging infrastructure where I live, and it was most helpful to see the thorough overview.

The account of people reading / working at the wheel is scary stuff! But perhaps not surprising, from my experience US highways have plenty of bad driving on display, especially people texting at the wheel.
 
Just curious ... when/why do you need to turn the parking sensors off?

I do this often on small country lanes when I get fed up of the beeping every time I ease in to the hedge to pass an oncoming car. Just have to remember to put them on again before parallel parking!
 

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