Dryce
Hardcore MB Enthusiast
- Joined
- May 17, 2006
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My own personal interpretation of the vote is that there was a small but persistent hard core of die-hard Eurosceptics, who managed to convince a large body of indecisive and 'floating' voters to vote Leave
I think it was more that there was a hard core of Eurosceptics who raised the isssue to the level that there was a refrendum. Then the EUref became the means whereby there was a shock to the system as it was discovered that the number of people voting to leave was higher than expected.
I think there was an underlying assumption on both sides that the vote for leave would be substantially lower.
My recollection is that some thought that the likes of Mr Johnson were pushing the leave campaign without the expectation that they would 'win'.
And my other recollection of the day was that Mr Farage conceded almost immediately. So there you have one of the apparent instigators and culprits of the leave campaign who clearly didn't understand what was happening.
I also wonder how many voters were'floating'. People I know who voted and discuss their vote pretty much made up their minds before the referendum. It's notable that the vast majority of those vocally expressing their position were on the remain side - and that a significant number had no knowledge of anybody who they knew who voted leave. Even today I find myself suprised at discovering somebody I thought all along was a quiet remainer who actually voted to leave.
The EUref 'broke' the system because it separated the question being asked from the politics and manifestos of the established parties.
And this is the problem of separation between the actual views of the public vs the chatter and talk in the media and in public is a problem that still lurks in politics after the event. I think there is a risk that the mainstream media, the Conservatives, Labour, and Libdems all don't understand the so called 'red wall' of constutuencies that influenced at the last GE.