Boris' fate probably depends on whether the hidden powerbrokers of the Conservative party--- the legendary men in grey suits -- continue to regard him as a continuing electoral asset or impediment. He was regarded as the former before the last general election and the result proved to be the case despite his obvious character flaws. That was okay- he was a winner- they could be overlooked. Recently however he has increasingly gone "off script "-- the increase in national insurance being one example---a big taxation increase!!!!! being an anathema to the men in grey suits.
Teflon coated and presently lying low , he may survive like Donald Trump, who despite an attempt at insurrection of the US government , is now being welcomed back into the fold of the GOP --a party prepared to be led by a sociopath as long as he is a winning sociopath. So don't write Boris off yet.
p.s. And if his "speech of contrition" at the dispatch box at PMQs doesn't win a BAFTA theres no justice in PEPA PIG LAND
In traditional political theory he is safe until the May Council elections. If the Tories get spanked big time, then he will be jettisoned.
He now has around 4 months to persuade not only his MPs but, more importantly, the rank and file shire support that he has returned to traditional Conservative values.
Sooo ... Princess Nut-Nut or the job of PM? The Boris of old will take the job. Trouble is, he can't afford another divorce and kiss and tell until he gets on the speaker circuit.
My guess ... he'll try and fudge it as he always does, and be booted out just before this year's Conference season. However, the mistress that is politics is very fickle.