The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[m80]

Well we're nowhere near 'post mass vaccination'.

In the early days a figure of 60% herd immunity was banded about as desirable to bring the R number down to manageable.

Now we are at over 31 million with their 1st dose of vaccine. Although that covers a vast majority of adults and I accept that many of those aren't so mobile, so not significant spreaders, it has encompassed a large amount that would be.

Most vulnerable are vaccinated, tick.
Many not so vulnerable are vaccinated, tick.
Very few young suffer severe effects, the vast majority have non.

Where is the significant risk to either our health service or our infrastructure?

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Per 100,000 bods admitted to hospital during the whole pandemic the 85+ are at 7,400. That's high but takes account of a lower number of population.

The next 65 - 85 group, more bods but a lower number at 2,400. A lesser mobile group also, but high vaccination rate.

By far the greatest age range of 18 - 64, many more bods but at 488 admissions. The majority of those are lower ages, highly mobile, not as largely vaccinated, yet, but younger are less affected.

the 2 lower age groups are so low any consideration toward health service overload may be ignored.

Thankfully the rates of covid are coming down still, with blips here and there.
I don't suggest it's time to open the floodgates of activities, as in truth we have so many deciding to do as they wish anyway it's close to being that. But I'm failing to see where the risk is or will be.

It's snowing outside but we can generally expect warmer temperatures and more sunlight. By the time the cooler shorter days return the mass vaccination will be accomplished. The hope being we are prepared for the winter potential renewed onslaught of covid.

It does seem intelligent to open up society at a rate to monitor effects and reverse if need be, as so much of this may still be guess work.
Even with that admission to me it seems the call for vaccine passports is beyond need, unless we don't actually have faith in the vaccination.

 

[Dryce]

In the early days a figure of 60% herd immunity was banded about as desirable to bring the R number down to manageable.

Now we are at over 31 million with their 1st dose of vaccine. Although that covers a vast majority of adults and I accept that many of those aren't so mobile, so not significant spreaders, it has encompassed a large amount that would be.

Most vulnerable are vaccinated, tick.
Many not so vulnerable are vaccinated, tick.
Very few young suffer severe effects, the vast majority have non.

Where is the significant risk to either our health service or our infrastructure?

60% of *what*.

My argument is we control our borders to maintain the protection of ..... 60% of what's in the UK.

Because the % of what's outside the UK is *significantly* lower and will be for quite a while.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Per 100,000 bods admitted to hospital during the whole pandemic the 85+ are at 7,400. That's high but takes account of a lower number of population.

The next 65 - 85 group, more bods but a lower number at 2,400. A lesser mobile group also, but high vaccination rate.

By far the greatest age range of 18 - 64, many more bods but at 488 admissions. The majority of those are lower ages, highly mobile, not as largely vaccinated, yet, but younger are less affected.

But .... this isn't just vaccination - it's vaccination during a lockdown. So two factors impacting the spread.

This is why things have to be dealt with carefully.

the 2 lower age groups are so low any consideration toward health service overload may be ignored.

Thankfully the rates of covid are coming down still, with blips here and there.
I don't suggest it's time to open the floodgates of activities, as in truth we have so many deciding to do as they wish anyway it's close to being that. But I'm failing to see where the risk is or will be.

Again lower age groups are being protected by the lockdown.

Lift the barriers to spread and a 0.25% of 10 million becaomes a lot of fatalities and a lot of extra hospital cases if there is a fast spread. And that conveniently assumes that the older groups are 100% protected.

And one othe minor inconvenience - we have a lot of people in those older age groups protected only by the first dose - they haven't go the second dose and won't for several weeks / two or three months. And time taken for a dose to take effect ..... add another few weeks perhaps.

So we are some way along the road to getting control - but the arithmetic takes a while to add up and we have the issue of the lower containment outside our borders. So having made progress we don't want to undo it due to lack of patience.

 

[st13phil]

from my observation people have basically run out of patience of being locked down and are somewhat willing to break the rules.

My observation is similar: people are tired of existing, and have already taken the decision that they are going to live their lives even if that involves breaking "the rules".

That decision entails risk. As does crossing the street, or a multitude of other human endeavours. Whether it's foolhardy or sensible is an unanswerable question, although there are certainly entrenched views on both sides. Our government has spent the last 12+ months doing their darndest to scare the bejeebers out of everyone, and the issue they have now is that many are starting to make their own risk assessments, while others are still adamant that everyone (including themselves) should continue to hide behind the sofa. That's a recipe for conflict, and it's building.

Those who are either advocating for, or ambivalent about, digital "covid passports" (in reality a bioidentity card) in order to be permitted to engage in regular societal activities such as attending a sporting or cultural event, or even using an hospitality venue need to think very hard about what they're supporting. They would be discriminatory, ethically and morally questionable (due to the implied coercion to accept being vaccinated) and represent a massive identity fraud risk. Other than that, they're perfect.

 

[m80]

Dyce you seem to have expanded this to a wider argument than the vaccine passport for UK movements.
The international travel is quite possibly not such a great concern if we have protection within the UK, unknown variants aside of course.
If they are likely to be our downfall then closing the borders is our only hope, and then a limited hope.

60% of *what*

60% herd immunity

My argument is we control our borders to maintain the protection of ..... 60% of what's in the UK.

I am talking of UK.
I am suggesting that as and when we have sufficient immunity, within the UK, the concerns as to what is occurring outside of the UK is a red herring. As and when we are protected.

Over a week ago it was reported that 52% were with vaccine immunity, can we add natural immunity to that?
Our herd immunity should by now have some very positive advantage.

The % of the young being hospitalised in the UK is significantly lower than the old.
We are at 8.2% of the population having had the 2nd dose, I suggest that in the main that will be the older aged and more vulnerable.

The 18 - 64 group have seen 20,000 hospitalised in total. Many of that group are now vaccinated, the greater percentage of that group are toward the younger end.

Our vulnerable have been offered vaccination, a high percentage have taken it. Many now are fully vaccinated (2 doses).

Way back there was suggestion that the vulnerable should worry about themselves, I didn't agree.
We have moved on and those vulnerable do have choice to protect themselves by accepting vaccination. They seemingly now have choice of prevention, avoidance or accepting what ever risk.

The young are in less need of protection, but soonish it will be available. I accept they can spread it and worse even cultivate it within. But if the vulnerable they might contaminate have protection surely we are back to red herrings.

There are so many figures I've heard I'm not sure if the 0.25% you use is referring to the % fatality of the population when this thing was rampant? If so we aren't there anymore.

 

[ChipChop]

In the early days a figure of 60% herd immunity was banded about as desirable to bring the R number down to manageable.

Odd that no one in Government or the media is talking about herd immunity seeing as so many of the at risk group have been vaccinated. That is after all the point of vaccination. To trigger an immune system response.

I wonder what the current all cause death rate at 8% below the 5 year average (England & Wales) indicates?

 

[ChipChop]

There are so many figures I've heard I'm not sure if the 0.25% you use is referring to the % fatality of the population when this thing was rampant? If so we aren't there anymore.

The infection fatality rate is 0.15% (see below peer reviewed study). With 10 million at risk that represents 15,000 people. Now i assume the majority of those are vaccinated so having an immune response so around 15,000 less hospital admissions and fatalities.

The UK Government and media vaccine passport stories seem a bit of a diversion.

Error - Cookies Turned Off

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

 

[ChipChop]

Those who are either advocating for, or ambivalent about, digital "covid passports" (in reality a bioidentity card) in order to be permitted to engage in regular societal activities such as attending a sporting or cultural event, or even using an hospitality venue need to think very hard about what they're supporting. They would be discriminatory, ethically and morally questionable (due to the implied coercion to accept being vaccinated) and represent a massive identity fraud risk. Other than that, they're perfect.

A bioidentity card targeting the young. Festivals, gigs and nightclubs etc.

 

[m80]

The UK Government and media vaccine passport stories seem a bit of a diversion.

Careful, that could be viewed as another conspiracy theory.
Says quietly: But the diversion technique is used all too often to confuse the masses.

And if you lot accuse me an ChipChop of being conspiracy theorists that makes you conspiracy theorists.

 

[m80]

A bioidentity card targeting the young. Festivals, gigs and nightclubs etc.

and anyone that feels discussing their health status with a pub / club bouncer is unreasonable.
But I'm sure Mrs Biggins in the pie shop has enough medical expertise cos she's got kids and grandkids.

 

[ChipChop]

Careful, that could be viewed as another conspiracy theory.
Says quietly: But the diversion technique is used all too often to confuse the masses.

And if you lot accuse me an ChipChop of being conspiracy theorists that makes you conspiracy theorists.

...or a coincidence theorist.

 

[markjay]

The various quoted figures re herd immunity relate to random distribution of immunity across the population. But if you immunise only certain groups within the population, then the statistics will change. A fact others pointed out... while some chose to ignore.

 

[markjay]

And we also heard those claiming that we've already reached herd immunity last summer... before the second peak hit. The now-disgraced Dr Yeadon, for one (remember him?).

 

[m80]

The various quoted figures re herd immunity relate to random distribution of immunity across the population. But if you immunise only certain groups within the population, then the statistics will change. A fact others pointed out... while some chose to ignore.

Point accepted,
but where is the remaining risk and has that been mitigated?

 

[LTD]

Yes - the figures suggest the hospitals are not under severe pressure

Yes - those most at risk have received at least one vaccine (should they have wanted it) or are now fully vaccinated

Yes - those in closest contact to those at risk have been vaccinated

Given that the elemental risk has now dropped to remove the need for stringent isolation in order to protect our NHS and those seemed vulnerable and at risk, surely the pragmatic approach is to open as much as physically possible with the caveat of staying sensibly safe.

Normal life has to go on

 

[grober]

MEANWHILE-------?

EU and UK pledge backing to Ukraine after Russian military buildup

Boris Johnson and European envoy say Kyiv has their ‘unwavering support’, while Moscow denies threatening behaviour

www.theguardian.com

 

[st13phil]

surely the pragmatic approach is to open as much as physically possible with the caveat of staying sensibly safe.

Normal life has to go on

That’s certainly a logical view, but I fancy there are a group of politicians and also scientists who have realised that they’re now in a “no win” situation that they’ve created for themselves.

By falling for the arguably false premise that they can favourably influence the progress of a virus, they can only lose from this point onwards. If they open up the economy and the predicted Armageddon doesn’t occur, they will be castigated for having unnecessarily trashed lives and the economy; if they don’t open up the economy they are continuing to trash it and people's lives.

 

[m80]

Yes - the figures suggest the hospitals are not under severe pressure

Yes - those most at risk have received at least one vaccine (should they have wanted it) or are now fully vaccinated

Yes - those in closest contact to those at risk have been vaccinated

Given that the elemental risk has now dropped to remove the need for stringent isolation in order to protect our NHS and those seemed vulnerable and at risk, surely the pragmatic approach is to open as much as physically possible with the caveat of staying sensibly safe.

Normal life has to go on

My thoughts are for a moderately paced return to whatever normal awaits, carefully monitored.
There is still strong possibility of new learnings and mistakes in strategy, reversal or amending of less is easier.

But tbh honest it seems that's the plan anyway.

 

[flowrider]

MEANWHILE-------?

EU and UK pledge backing to Ukraine after Russian military buildup

Boris Johnson and European envoy say Kyiv has their ‘unwavering support’, while Moscow denies threatening behaviour

www.theguardian.com

But if Russia does move into Ukraine will the UK and EU do anything other than complain, or even strongly complain.

BTW, thanks for bringing the thread back on topic, I thought I was in the resurrected Covid thread for a minute!

 

[SW18]

I see - are you implying that this is a concession to the wealthier elements of the UK population, who own - or wish to buy - a holiday residence abroad?

That is exactly what it is. A concession to those who own property abroad.

It’s a concession to Boris’s father, isn’t it? This is behind the paywall, but it’s basically Stanley saying his son kindly changed the law to help him make more money:

Stanley Johnson: Why I'm delighted my holiday let loophole has been given legal backing

 

[GeeJayW]

It’s a concession to Boris’s father, isn’t it? This is behind the paywall, but it’s basically Stanley saying his son kindly changed the law to help him make more money:

Stanley Johnson: Why I'm delighted my holiday let loophole has been given legal backing

What’s the point of having a son as prime minister if you can’t enjoy a little favourable leverage now and again...