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If that happened surely we'd have to have best out of three.
I'd go for Sudden Death.
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If that happened surely we'd have to have best out of three.
Remember Saturday afternoons and "Two Falls, Two Submissions or a Knockout"?I'd go for Sudden Death.
Looks like your maths is a bit off there, markjaySo assuming the sample in the You Gov survey is indeed representative, then in theory of we had a second referendum today, the result would have been 16.4m for Leave, and 17.1m for Remain.
Looks like your maths is a bit off there, markjay
Assuming the same turnout and no rounding errors on the 7% and 4%, it actually gives a tiny win for Leave by a margin of just over 123,000 on a total vote of just over 33.5 million. So, unchanged in a simple majority sense, but in reality too close to call, and certainly not the large swing that some of the more vocal proponents of a second "public vote" would like to believe.
Which all tends to suggest that the opinions held are deep rooted and largely unaffected by the machinations of politicians both in the UK and the EU, and that absent some cataclysmic event, a second referendum would have an outcome just as divisive as the first as it would either reinforce the first, or overturn it by a tiny margin.
Looks like your maths is a bit off there, markjay
Assuming the same turnout and no rounding errors on the 7% and 4%, it actually gives a tiny win for Leave by a margin of just over 123,000 on a total vote of just over 33.5 million. So, unchanged in a simple majority sense, but in reality too close to call, and certainly not the large swing that some of the more vocal proponents of a second "public vote" would like to believe.
Which all tends to suggest that the opinions held are deep rooted and largely unaffected by the machinations of politicians both in the UK and the EU, and that absent some cataclysmic event, a second referendum would have an outcome just as divisive as the first as it would either reinforce the first, or overturn it by a tiny margin.
It's 7% of those who voted Leave would switch, and 4% of those who voted Remain, not 7% & 4% of the total who voted...So where did I get it wrong?
Quite possible - as are other outcomes.But there is reason enough to believe that many who would have voted remain did not as they thought it unnecessary. Given a second opportunity to vote, they will inevitably turn out in greater number than would those who would have voted leave but failed to make it to the ballot box.
Quite possible - as are other outcomes.
My point is that another vote is more likely to reinforce divisions than to provide a clear majority either way.
So what then?
Quite possible - as are other outcomes.
My point is that another vote is more likely to reinforce divisions than to provide a clear majority either way.
If it results in a Leave vote with a reduced majority, how does that help? Will the Remain camp accept it? I suspect not. So we continue to have votes every few years until the populace give the "right" result?
If it results in a Remain vote with a slim majority comparable to that for Leave in 2016, will that help? A one-all draw is hardly a resounding confirmation of a volte-face by the electorate. So what then?
I think remainers would accept that as a result - talk of a 'confirmatory' vote is otherwise meaningless.
And in the same spirit, that too would have to be accepted.
Strikes me we are currently on the verge of leaving not because it is in the country's best interests to do so but because 'they said we could'.
Are we to leave for good reasons or because of some dogmatic principle of how often the public can be asked its opinion?
But there is reason enough to believe that many who would have voted remain did not as they thought it unnecessary. Given a second opportunity to vote, they will inevitably turn out in greater number than would those who would have voted leave but failed to make it to the ballot box.
It's 7% of those who voted Leave would switch, and 4% of those who voted Remain, not 7% & 4% of the total who voted...
Bit of an assumption that. Where's the certainty that those who couldn't be ar$ed the first time around "will inevitably" turn out for a second referendum?
Maybe we could make an assumption about those leavers who similarly couldn't be bothered. Will they inevitably stay at home despite their three years of frustration and disappointment?
Absolutely not, just to preserve democracy.
Did not know that.It's illegal to ask for a referendum twice in the same generation.
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