The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[WDB124066]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...test-countries/ss-BBL1XdO?li=BBqdg4K#image=64

 

[WDB124066]

An honest politician...?

I'm nothing like Donald Trump, insists Winston Peters

 

[Deleted member 37751]

Watched finished watching the last of three episodes of this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bdpvhf

I wasn’t that surprised by Ed Balls’ programme; it showed me how far out of touch with the ordinary man our politicians are, yes he got involved in certain japes for the cameras but, on the whole, he was repulsed that people think different to him.

One case in mind was when he looked completely perplexed when speaking to the “normal” folk who voted for Trump, and in the last episode he really didn’t like it when one interviewee remarked how much more he was getting paid because of the tax cuts etc replying that “well, what about all those billionaires getting tax cuts too?!” when the lad replied (slight paraphrase but the right sentiment) “well I don’t really care about them, I care about me getting paid more and I am!” - in other words I’m doing my best to take care of my business and I’m going to vote for someone who I think will make my life better!

 

[Deleted member 37751]

Bit of a turn up for the books isn’t it; the free flow of labour drastically recedes due to Brexit and people’s wages go up, who’d have thought it?!

Firms 'hit by EU labour shortages'

 

[WDB124066]

Shock, horror firms will have to start planning and training for the future. Oh God that requires investment in people and we havn't done that for years. Planning for the future!? I WANT IT NOW!!! Or I'll cry.

 

[markjay]

Bit of a turn up for the books isn’t it; the free flow of labour drastically recedes due to Brexit and people’s wages go up, who’d have thought it?!

Firms 'hit by EU labour shortages'

This is what the CIPD said about this in June:

'First, it seems that the early fears of ‘Brexodus’ may have been overstated according to official statistics. The number of EU nationals employed in the UK has actually increased by around a quarter of a million since the referendum.... This additional labour supply has provided a useful safety net for employers against the backdrop of a tightening labour market that continues to be driven by strong employer growth.'

From:
Should we be more relaxed about Brexit? | CIPD

So looks like the trend is reversing now. But while a growing economy offering more jobs, with less workers to take these up, sounds like heaven for employees... is it really good for the economy and for the UK as a whole?

 

[grober]

Apparently the master plan of making the UK a less attractive place to live and work is working - for everyone including British citizens!

 

[Scott_F]

So looks like the trend is reversing now. But while a growing economy offering more jobs, with less workers to take these up, sounds like heaven for employees... is it really good for the economy and for the UK as a whole?

I'm not at all sure you could describe it as being "like heaven for employees" since the majority of jobs taken by EU migrants are low-skill and low-pay in fields, factories, the hospitality industry etc..

So regardless of any changes to the availability of cheap labour, a 12-hour shift in Mike Ashley's Sports Direct warehouse isn't "heaven" for anyone.

 

[Deleted member 37751]

But while a growing economy offering more jobs, with less workers to take these up, sounds like heaven for employees... is it really good for the economy and for the UK as a whole?

Yes.

Amongst the multitude of reasons for Brexit was the fact that people’s wages were stagnant and which was partly down to the oversupply of labour.

Hopefully, once wages start to rise, we will see less anger towards “the establishment” and more of an equitable society (or at least a whole section of society not feeling “left behind”)

 

[WDB124066]

First of all don't believe anything in the press about this as there is far too much at stake for the truth. If you want to know the reality check Poland & Hungary. The way things have been going for the last five or ten years Poland's GDP/person would take over the UK when...?

 

[st13phil]

Bit of a turn up for the books isn’t it; the free flow of labour drastically recedes due to Brexit and people’s wages go up, who’d have thought it?!

I was chatting with a waiter in a restaurant in Krakow earlier this year after commenting on his excellent English language, especially his mastery of colloquialisms.

Turned out that he'd worked in the UK for a number of years but had returned to his home country after the Brexit vote. He was at great pains to tell us that it was nothing to do with any feeling of hostility towards either him or his country-folk, and indeed he was rather missing his life in England, rather it was purely a matter of economics: once the pound lost value against the Euro it no longer made financial sense for him to live and work in the UK.

 

[Deleted96908]

First of all don't believe anything in the press about this as there is far too much at stake for the truth. If you want to know the reality check Poland & Hungary. The way things have been going for the last five or ten years Poland's GDP/person would take over the UK when...?

There was a time when the British press promoted their own individual ideologies, but could still be relied on to report, where possible, actual events with objectivity and clarity. Napoleon, for example, was an avid consumer of our broadsheets and preferred them in many cases to the reports coming back from his own generals and politicians. And in WW1 when things were getting a little sticky, the Cabinet summoned the 'Barons' and together they projected a united front - for the benefit of the morale of the British public and to disinform the enemy.

These days I barely trust any of them, and what little respect I had left went out of the window when the Telegraph was exposed for having changed its editorial to suit the whims of its biggest advertiser. At least the Sun doesn't pretend to be anything other than a comic.

 

[Dryce]

So looks like the trend is reversing now. But while a growing economy offering more jobs, with less workers to take these up, sounds like heaven for employees... is it really good for the economy and for the UK as a whole?

Well is that not part of the problem - the 'UK as a whole' and measured by economists and politicians has diverged from the experience of people further down the economic tiers.

So 'is it really good for the economy' has been a question asked and answered in the last few years with reference to the big economic numbers, big business, the politicians while disenfranchising a large proportion of the population.

 

[Scott_F]

I was chatting with a waiter in a restaurant in Krakow earlier this year after commenting on his excellent English language, especially his mastery of colloquialisms.

Turned out that he'd worked in the UK for a number of years but had returned to his home country after the Brexit vote. He was at great pains to tell us that it was nothing to do with any feeling of hostility towards either him or his country-folk, and indeed he was rather missing his life in England, rather it was purely a matter of economics: once the pound lost value against the Euro it no longer made financial sense for him to live and work in the UK.

Sterling only lost about 12% of its value against the Euro in the months following Brexit and is currently down by around 10% compared to its pre-referendum value.

So his actions seem quite drastic for someone who had obviously settled well in the UK especially when you compare Polish wages to UK wages.

 

[WDB124066]

There was a time when the British press promoted their own individual ideologies, but could still be relied on to report, where possible, actual events with objectivity and clarity. Napoleon, for example, was an avid consumer of our broadsheets and preferred them in many cases to the reports coming back from his own generals and politicians. And in WW1 when things were getting a little sticky, the Cabinet summoned the 'Barons' and together they projected a united front - for the benefit of the morale of the British public and to disinform the enemy.

These days I barely trust any of them, and what little respect I had left went out of the window when the Telegraph was exposed for having changed its editorial to suit the whims of its biggest advertiser. At least the Sun doesn't pretend to be anything other than a comic.

If you don't laugh you cry unless you are ignorant. I can see a time when comedians will be out of work not too far in the distance.

 

[st13phil]

So his actions seem quite drastic for someone who had obviously settled well in the UK especially when you compare Polish wages to UK wages.

That's what I thought, but he said that when you factor in living costs he could still make marginally more in the UK but that the delta wasn't great enough to be worthwhile in his case.

 

[grober]

British Pound to Euro Spot Exchange Rates for 1999 to 2018 from the Bank of England

 

[190]

The Euro exchange rate has fallen recently due to concerns about a no deal Brexit but the rate has been worse if not much worse. If anyone is that concerned you could hedge a fall on the pound by buying a European investment. When the pound falls the value of your investment will go up.

 

[WDB124066]

Yep, or better still invest in a UK manufacturer/exporter that is doing OK now.

If the Pound falls your exports will/should increase = greater intrinsic wealth for the productive.

There is a reason why China dropped its currency deliberately.

 

[AltonAnt]

I'm not at all sure you could describe it as being "like heaven for employees" since the majority of jobs taken by EU migrants are low-skill and low-pay in fields, factories, the hospitality industry etc..

So regardless of any changes to the availability of cheap labour, a 12-hour shift in Mike Ashley's Sports Direct warehouse isn't "heaven" for anyone.

I'm not sure that sweeping statement covers the complexity of the situation though.
Here is a snippet of an ONS report from last year -

There are higher proportions of international migrants in some industry sectors more than others; particularly the 14% of the wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants workforce are international migrants (508,000 (+/- 64,000) EU nationals are employed here) and 12% of the financial and business services sector's workforce are international migrants (382,000 (+/- 56,000) of which are EU nationals); 8% of workers in manufacturing are EU8 nationals.

701,000 non-UK nationals work in the public administration, education and health sector; over a quarter of EU14 workers (27%) and non-EU workers (29%) are employed in these industries.

The highest number of non-UK nationals are employed in elementary occupations (such as selling goods, cleaning or freight handling), in which approximately 669,000 (+/-86,000) non-UK nationals are employed (510,000 are EU nationals); this is followed by professional occupations, in which an estimated 658,000 (+/-83,000) non-UK nationals were employed (352,000 were EU nationals).

Non-UK nationals are more likely to be in jobs they are over-qualified for than UK nationals; approximately 15% of UK nationals were employed in jobs they were deemed to be over-educated for (in comparison to other workers), compared with almost 2 in 5 non-UK nationals (37% of EU14, EU2 and non-EU nationals and 40% of EU8 nationals).

EU2 and EU8 work more hours than UK nationals; half of working EU8 nationals (50%) and nearly two-thirds of EU2 nationals (61%) work more than 40 hours per week, compared to a third of UK nationals (32%).

International immigration and the labour market, UK - Office for National Statistics