The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[Swotty]

But you can't reject the opinion of the two-thirds of voters who could have voted for Le Pen in the second round of last year's election but were not impressed by her promise to take France out of the Eurozone and voted for Macron instead. So regardless of your years at the coalface, the people that you know are clearly not representative of the wider French population.

And with your attempts to misinterpret what Macron actually said you won't be trumping anyone.

I can only repeat ... you do not understand French politics nor their system of electing their President.

Hollande was elected in 2012 as he was the last man standing after Dominique S-K (a shoe-in) was set up by the right/Gaullists and Royale (his former mistress) was tainted goods after losing to President bling-bling in 2007.

But, the "left" got their own back in 2017 as Fillon was assiduously discredited, letting the Bilderberger candidate Macron in.

I say "left", as it was the Bilderberg influence/money which set up Macron from nothing and got him into the second round/face off. Up to being turfed out, Fillon was the odds-on candidate to win.

The final round in the French Presidential elections is essentially the "least worst" candidate who prevails. It's always the case.

So, nothing to do with the EU at all ... just "anybody but Le Pen", as in "anybody but Sarko" 5 years before.


As for Macron and leaving the EU .... see below:

Pour Macron, la France aurait « probablement » voté pour une sortie de l'UE en cas de vote sur le « Frexit »

There are many other such reports.

7 no trumps ... you do play bridge, don't you?

 

[AltonAnt]

There is a wealth of info available TBH but the basics are that the current stage is regarding exit. Trade will come after.

Brexit negotiations - Wikipedia

 

[st13phil]

The final round in the French Presidential elections is essentially the "least worst" candidate who prevails. It's always the case.

So, nothing to do with the EU at all ... just "anybody but Le Pen", as in "anybody but Sarko" 5 years before.

This is the inconvenient truth for those (generally in the Brexit remain camp) who wilfully "misunderstand" how Macron - who is proving to be spectacularly unpopular - came to power, who persist in claiming it was somehow a vote that endorsed ongoing membership of the EU because Le Pen campaigned on an anti-EU ticket. It was nothing of the sort, as anyone who has even the most rudimentary understanding of the French and their political system knows.

 

[Swotty]

This is the inconvenient truth for those (generally in the Brexit remain camp) who wilfully "misunderstand" how Macron - who is proving to be spectacularly unpopular - came to power, who persist in claiming it was somehow a vote that endorsed ongoing membership of the EU because Le Pen campaigned on an anti-EU ticket. It was nothing of the sort, as anyone who has even the most rudimentary understanding of the French and their political system knows.

You got me there, Phil ..... not sure where you're going with that line?

 

[st13phil]

You got me there, Phil ..... not sure where you're going with that line?

I was agreeing with you and drawing attention to the ignorance of those who dispute what you’d said.


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[Dryce]

But you can't reject the opinion of the two-thirds of voters who could have voted for Le Pen in the second round of last year's election but were not impressed by her promise to take France out of the Eurozone and voted for Macron instead.

You are conveniently missing the point that for many of the 'wto-thirds' voting for Mme Le Pen is more unpalatable than the palatability of some of her policies.

 

[Swotty]

You got me there, Phil ..... not sure where you're going with that line?

Thanks - I

I was agreeing with you and drawing attention to the ignorance of those who dispute what you’d said.


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Thanks - I thought perhaps you were going to go on to expand on how Macron came to power .... Bilderberger merchant banker to prop up Merkel and even replace her in Europe. Yes, he has the most unpopular ratings now than any French president in the past 40 years.

 

[Swotty]

Back to topic .... May is to address the HoC at 3.30 UK time. She's clearly going to keep running down the clock and turn it into "no deal or my deal".

My bet's on a GE after Christmas .... bye bye Amber Dudd. Even if Corbyn won't push the button, if it looks like her deal is still in the mix then, the DUP could line up with the Brexiteers, SNP et al ... they've nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Or the Tories see the writing on the wall and oust May, replacing her with an interim leader.

Still, expect the EU to make a compromise early in the New Year to keep their deal alive.

 

[Dryce]

Or the Tories see the writing on the wall and oust May, replacing her with an interim leader.

The writing has allegedly been on the wall for weeks. So far those writing it don't actually appear to represent the majority in their own party. MS May has won a vote of confidence to demonstrate that fact.

Still, expect the EU to make a compromise early in the New Year to keep their deal alive.

The EU is all about 13th hour deals.

But in this case just as the UK isn't clear and concise what it wants - I suspect the EU isn't clear (apart from the dogma) as to what it wants.

Even if the UK was clear and concise that wouldn't avoid the EU's own prevarication habits - but with the UK being such a mess it has allowed the EU to look way more organised than usual.

What we are seeing being washed out in public here is not unusual in corporate deals - where after months of closing in on agreement when they actually get the company board members round a table to supposedly give the nod there's an 11th hour phase where all sorts of tiresome details suddently become apparent and both sides get pretty fractious and fed up with each other before finally concluding a bit later than anticipated.

Problem is that this is being washed out in public and the incentives to conclude by each side are more based on negatives rather than positives.

 

[flowrider]

Corbyn is apparently going to call a no confidence motion is there isn't a date announced for the "meaningful" vote today. He has been reluctant to do this as he isn't confidence he would win but I guess he is being pressured by others. Even a general election wont be a foregone conclusion on all will win.

 

[AltonAnt]

My bet's on a GE after Christmas .... bye bye Amber Dudd. Even if Corbyn won't push the button, if it looks like her deal is still in the mix then, the DUP could line up with the Brexiteers, SNP et al ... they've nothing to lose and everything to gain

The SNP and DUP would support a 'Norway' style deal but I'm pretty sure that Brexiteers wouldn't but if they are overruled by the rest of parliament then it could work. Having to comply to all the EU's rules but not having any say in making them would be a massive step back for the UK just to please the minority who follow this political idealism though.

 

[flowrider]

The SNP and DUP would support a 'Norway' style deal but I'm pretty sure that Brexiteers wouldn't but if they are overruled by the rest of parliament then it could work. Having to comply to all the EU's rules but not having any say in making them would be a massive step back for the UK just to please the minority who follow this political idealism though.

A 'Norway' deal is not on the card's as it doesn't comply with the requirements of Brexit. I think the only options are May's deal (with amendments regarding the backstop), a 'Canada' style deal or no deal.

 

[Dryce]

Corbyn is apparently going to call a no confidence motion is there isn't a date announced for the "meaningful" vote today. He has been reluctant to do this as he isn't confidence he would win but I guess he is being pressured by others. Even a general election wont be a foregone conclusion on all will win.

Problem for Mr Corbyn is that he might have a few of his own members decide they won't vote with him on this - how many have confidence in him.

Interesting days.

I find speaking to people that Ms May is perhaps doing a bit better with the electorate than the media or her own party might give her credit for. Depends how she fought it - if she actually came out to play - unlike last time - and simply asked the country to back her on a single issue she might well scrape through. That assumes her party would actually let her given what's been said about her stepping down before the next GE.

Trouble for Mr Corbyn is he'd actually have to stand for something. 'Man of Principle' would have to actually reveal himself. Moreover if they thought they were going to win as a party then they have a lot of careful homework to do - much more difficult to fight on a manifesto you genuinely expect to win than invent stuff for a manifesto looking to come a good second.

 

[Benzowner]

There is a wealth of info available TBH but the basics are that the current stage is regarding exit. Trade will come after.

Brexit negotiations - Wikipedia

That seems like negotiating a divorce and then sorting out who has what after. Does seem a strange way of doing things especially as if trade negotiations go well, the back stop may not be a requirement.

Another gripe in my feeble brain, we are supposed to pay the EU £39billion, which is supposedly our next 2 years payments which we allegedly signed up to, strange how that equates to £375million per week and presumably no returns for us, or will the EU carry on giving our subsidies back?

 

[Dryce]

That seems like negotiating a divorce and then sorting out who has what after. Does seem a strange way of doing things especially as if trade negotiations go well, the back stop may not be a requirement.

It's like negotiating a divorce - both parties are not allowed to legally marry new partners until after it is settled.

 

[Yugguy]

So what is happening now? May still trying to get her deal through Parliament?

 

[flowrider]

So no motion of no confidence was proposed in the Commons.

 

[st13phil]

'Man of Principle' would have to actually reveal himself.

Now there's a sobering thought

Moreover if they thought they were going to win as a party then they have a lot of careful homework to do - much more difficult to fight on a manifesto you genuinely expect to win than invent stuff for a manifesto looking to come a good second.

Precisely. I fancy there may be a number of squeaky bottoms over that one...

 

[NOMONEYBUTAMERC]

Love to see where "Man of Principle" is going to park his a*se . Only came out in favour of remaining in Europe AFTER the Brexit vote. He voted to leave the EEC in `75 ,voted against the Maastricht treaty which created the EU, and the Lisbon Treaty which is the constitutional basis for the EU. and has been one of the most vociferous anti-European critics for over 40 years. Splendid chap!

 

[Swotty]

Thankfully a "Losers' Vote" will never happen.

Although there will be Labour and Tory mavericks, McCluskey has ordered that option off the table, so never going to fly. Also, today's HoC debate was overwhelmingly against a second vote.

May's deal or WTO terms. Has she played a blinder and going to take us out on WTO?