The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[markjay]

...May's deal or WTO terms....

True, but this still does not settle it.

Even those who say they now accept it, in reality expect 'May's deal' to gain further concessions from the EU and hope (rightly or wrongly) for it to metamorph into a new deal that will only be 'May's deal' by name.

It's a never ending story... until March, anyway.

 

[Swotty]

Yes, Corbyn has had a rush of blood and gone too soon. The ranks will close. Everything delayed until January.

The EU comes out with a compromise. May is hailed a heroine.

But fails to get her deal though.

 

[Dryce]

Thankfully a "Losers' Vote" will never happen.

Don't bet on it. We live in strange times.

Has she played a blinder

Ummmmmmmm?????? No.

 

[m80]

No more negotiation says eu,
May tells Parliament no 2nd referendum, and calls the eu's bluff.
The eu now have a month to consider making the deal look more attractive, and so maybe getting it through Parliament.

All it takes is to confirm their statement of intent as part of the contractual deal and a majority in favour would be the likely result.
That is there being no chance that failing to reach agreement would trap us into a customs onion with no defined end.

Personally I hope May is manipulating for a no deal, but I doubt it.

 

[Dryce]

The eu now have a month to consider making the deal look more attractive, and so maybe geting it through Parliament.

They don't think that way.

Personally I hope May is manipulating for a no deal, but I doubt it.

I think yuo're right to doubt it. I don't think she works that way.

 

[Yugguy]

What's in it for the EU to bother coming back to the table?

 

[m80]

The worst for the eu is us leaving and being more successful afterwards, especially if that success is in spite of the eu's efforts to frustrate those chances.

As the eu implodes and we develop other members would rebel more than they are now. The 'Superstate' would become the blame for all problems.

The 'trap' could help ensure our lack of success.

 

[mattc]

May made a host of mistakes from the beginning. I am still in two minds as to whether they were deliberate or stupidity at play but I am leaning to deliberate....That aside we are where we are currently so the way I see it is like this. If no one intends the backstop to be used why are they so insistent it be there...The answer is clear..they intend to use it. It is a lever that May has foolishly agreed to and rightly Parliament is having none of it.

We have to go for a no deal now otherwise the EU will tie us up in dogma/their holy rules/committees etc for years.

Continental companies need to feel some pain so they push their national politicians for a solution who in turn push the EU to the table.

We have been too nice for too long in the hope the EU sees sense. I suspect many committed EU personnel see this almost like a religious war of old. It is an ideological war they feel they have to win consequently UK must suffer and more importantly be seen to suffer so nobody else leaves.

Right now I would put complete export restrictions on the Galileo programme, a third nation cannot have access to strategic military data (so says the EU remember). I would also make it clear the UK government intends to start its own action against the car manufacturers for their falsification of emissions data on April 1st 2019.

I would cancel all overseas aid with 6 months notice. If the world is laughing at us we really should stop giving away our borrowed money (especially now student loans are back on the government balance sheet). We simply cannot afford it.

Company corporation tax could be dramatically lowered to make the UK attractive as a company HQ.

The time for kisses and cuddles with the EU has gone. 585 pages on the divorce bill and 26 pages of waffly BS on the possible future trade deal shows Joe Public exactly where their properties lie. Walk away now and start throwing a few well aimed punches.

 

[Nicebutdim]

There is currently a petition on the Government website “Leave EU without a deal”.

Currently over 210000 signatures and growing rapidly. I’ve added to it. It may or may not be influential but it makes me feel better.

 

[m80]

Couldn't find it, any link.

17.4 million signatures might help the eu focus some.

 

[markjay]

Understandably many in the UK are concerned about leaving without a deal, given that half our trade is with EU member states.

But how much are the EU really bothered? UK trade is only a small percentage of the EU overall trade.

So we can leave without a deal if we want to. But 'calling the EU's bluff'? They will look at us with bemusement.

It's like the bank robber who point the gun at his own head and shouts at police "put your weapons down or I shoot!".

Yes, the sad reality is that we have no trump card, no leverage, and never did. We can do what we want, but let's not 'call the EU's bluff' because the EU just doesn't care that much.

 

[Nicebutdim]

Couldn't find it, any link.

17.4 million signatures might help the eu focus some.

Petition: Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019.

I think this is the link

 

[Alfie]

Having seen the way the EU (Juncker et al) have treated us, that in itself is reason enough to leave. What a corrupt, unelected bunch of bullies.

Roll on no-deal. Then we are free to negotiate whatever deals we like with the rest of the world just as the rest of the world already does. Bye bye EU tarriffs and levies! the EU does care if we call their bluff as they need us a lot more than we need them. They are terrified of no-deal being a success as it will appeal to other countries who are also looking to leave the failed crumbling socialist experiment.

 

[m80]

Having seen the way the EU (Juncker et al) have treated us,

I blame the alcohol.
LUI most of the time, the littlew man thinks he's Churchill.

 

[mattc]

Markjay, if they care so little why has the money been so important. Why after 40+ years paying in does the UK miraculously still owe yet more money?

The EU as it has now become is the slow death by 1000 cuts to the nation state. They have been successful so far because they can proceed at a slower pace than elected politicians who have to answer directly for their actions. We now see them talking of harmonised tax regimes, countries are already supposed to follow budgetary rules, the Euro has been created, they have a foreign office already and now they want an army. Next it will be a police force and the takeover will be complete. At that point why have elections, the EU knows best after all

The UK leaving is a fundamental blow to the EU and should have given them pause for thought but no, the answer is more EU. So whilst Germany has rarely had it so good look at the lost generation of unemployed youth in southern europe whose countries have been blighted by being tied to the Euro.

I want our country away from its pernicious, money and power grabbing hands. Once the country does that we can then turn our collective attention on our own political system that has proven so effectively these past few years it is not fit for purpose.

There is much more I could say about reducing reliance on financial service, growing high tech, high value add business ( which needs an educated and well trained workforce, preferably not encumbered by masses of debt in their early years) etc etc but there is not the space nor time in this forum.

 

[Scott_F]

I can only repeat ... you do not understand French politics nor their system of electing their President.

Hollande was elected in 2012 as he was the last man standing after Dominique S-K (a shoe-in) was set up by the right/Gaullists and Royale (his former mistress) was tainted goods after losing to President bling-bling in 2007.

But, the "left" got their own back in 2017 as Fillon was assiduously discredited, letting the Bilderberger candidate Macron in.

I say "left", as it was the Bilderberg influence/money which set up Macron from nothing and got him into the second round/face off. Up to being turfed out, Fillon was the odds-on candidate to win.

The final round in the French Presidential elections is essentially the "least worst" candidate who prevails. It's always the case.

So, nothing to do with the EU at all ... just "anybody but Le Pen", as in "anybody but Sarko" 5 years before.

You can repeat all you wish but your long diatribe on the vagaries of the French electoral system is entirely irrelevant.

And despite your assertion that every French person you know is desperate to leave the EU, in the last election no major party was stupid enough to make such an offer to the electorate and the fact remains that the only one that promised to take France out of the Eurozone didn't win.

So even with my failure to "understand French politics nor their system of electing their President", it would appear that anti-EU sentiment isn't as strong as your little group of friends and acquaintances would have you believe.

As for Macron and leaving the EU .... see below:

Pour Macron, la France aurait « probablement » voté pour une sortie de l'UE en cas de vote sur le « Frexit »

There are many other such reports?

My French isn't that good so we'll have it in English. After the 2016 referendum, Macron was asked whether he thought the people of France would have voted to leave the EU and he replied:

"Yes. Probably, in a similar context. But our context was very different, so I don’t want to take any bets".

He therefore recognised the difference in context between the two countries and didn't actually think they would vote to leave at all.

7 no trumps ... you do play bridge, don't you?

No but I like a flutter....

My bet's on a GE after Christmas .....

My bet isn't. When after Christmas and what's your stake ?

 

[Scott_F]

You are conveniently missing the point that for many of the 'wto-thirds' voting for Mme Le Pen is more unpalatable than the palatability of some of her policies.

And you are choosing to ignore the point that if a majority of the French electorate were as desperate to leave the EU as has been stated then far more of them would have been able to put other considerations to one side and voted for her anti-Eurozone policies as a precursor to leaving the EU as a whole.

But they didn't.

 

[Dryce]

And you are choosing to ignore the point that if a majority of the French electorate were as desperate to leave the EU as has been stated then far more of them would have been able to put other considerations to one side and voted for her anti-Eurozone policies as a precursor to leaving the EU as a whole.

I didn't ignore the point - I addressed it *explicitly*.

If you're going to disagree with me then just disagree. Don't overcomplicate it.

 

[Dryce]

Understandably many in the UK are concerned about leaving without a deal, given that half our trade is with EU member states.

But how much are the EU really bothered? UK trade is only a small percentage of the EU overall trade.

16% isn't small.

So we can leave without a deal if we want to. But 'calling the EU's bluff'? They will look at us with bemusement.

They'd do that even if it wasn't a bluff and they were on the losing end. They don't really know how top do anything else.

Yes, the sad reality is that we have no trump card, no leverage, and never did. We can do what we want, but let's not 'call the EU's bluff' because the EU just doesn't
care that much.

Well the sad reality is that we think so little of ourselves that we might think we need a trump card or leverage.

Maybe if the EU had a skirt we could hide in its folds.

 

[Scott_F]

I didn't ignore the point - I addressed it *explicitly*.

If you're going to disagree with me then just disagree. Don't overcomplicate it.

Says the Grand Master of irrelevant philosophising and tangential thinking.

And there's nothing complicated about the French electorate being offered the chance to leave the Eurozone but choosing to reject the opportunity.