The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[Swotty]

You can repeat all you wish but your long diatribe on the vagaries of the French electoral system is entirely irrelevant.

And despite your assertion that every French person you know is desperate to leave the EU, in the last election no major party was stupid enough to make such an offer to the electorate and the fact remains that the only one that promised to take France out of the Eurozone didn't win.

So even with my failure to "understand French politics nor their system of electing their President", it would appear that anti-EU sentiment isn't as strong as your little group of friends and acquaintances would have you believe.




My French isn't that good so we'll have it in English. After the 2016 referendum, Macron was asked whether he thought the people of France would have voted to leave the EU and he replied:

"Yes. Probably, in a similar context. But our context was very different, so I don’t want to take any bets".

He therefore recognised the difference in context between the two countries and didn't actually think they would vote to leave at all.




No but I like a flutter....



My bet isn't. When after Christmas and what's your stake ?

O.K. you don't get it. Twisting my words does not help, either.

Another report in another FRENCH newspaper for you:

Brexit : pour Macron, la France aurait "probablement" également voté pour une sortie de l'UE

".... le journaliste lui demande si le vote des Français aurait pu être le même que celui des Britanniques en 2016. "Oui", lâche le Président ..."

Translated .... "would the vote by the French have been the same as the British in 2016? Yes, "dropped/let slip the President".

He said that, given a binary choice, the French would have also voted to leave the EU. However, he has no intention of giving them any choice - see my other posts about the 2005 French vote to reject the Lisbon Treaty, which was ignored.

His decision to add 10 billion euros of tax cuts to try and buy off the gilet jaunes will be interesting to watch. The population is unconvinced and he will have to give more. Those already made take France beyond the EU-acceptable budget deficit of 3% .... wonder what the Italians will make of that?

French borrowing costs jump on Macron wage rises, tax cuts | Reuters

Christmas? Take your pick.

Do you support Remain?

 

[markjay]

16% isn't small.



They'd do that even if it wasn't a bluff and they were on the losing end. They don't really know how top do anything else.



Well the sad reality is that we think so little of ourselves that we might think we need a trump card or leverage.

Maybe if the EU had a skirt we could hide in its folds.

When I speak to Europeans... they ask me what I think will happen with Brexit, and if May will resign.

But they are only making polite conversation. Just like we would ask a Frenchman what he thinks of Macron or the yellow vest protests.

They see Brexit as an 'English thing'. It is rarely discussed when no 'Englishman' (i.e. Brit) is around.

The average European is just not bothered. For them, Brexit is something that happened in 2016, now it's not relevant for them any more. They see it as an internal political issue.

The EU officials carrying-out the negotiation have no audience they need to satisfy or please.

They act based on what they perceive to be the EU's interests. But whatever they come-up with, deal or no-deal, the EU citizens will just accept it and move on.

 

[Swotty]

When I speak to Europeans... they ask me what I think will happen with Brexit, and if May will resign.

But they are only making polite conversation. Just like we would ask a Frenchman what he thinks of Macron or the yellow vest protests.

They see Brexit as an 'English thing'. It is rarely discussed when no 'Englishman' (i.e. Brit) is around.

The average European is just not bothered. For them, Brexit is something that happened in 2016, now it's not relevant for them any more. They see it as an internal political issue.

The EU officials carrying-out the negotiation have no audience they need to satisfy or please.

They act based on what they perceive to be the EU's interests. But whatever they come-up with, deal or no-deal, the EU citizens will just accept it and move on.

I agree ... we have been given the chance of a lucky escape from The Federal Project. If we are not to be ignored, like, Denmark, France and Ireland.

 

[Scott_F]

O.K. you don't get it. Twisting my words does not help, either.

I get it and I'm not twisting anything:

Apart from the farmers (for obvious CAP subsidies), most of the French I know would leave the EU in a heartbeat, but accept they will not be given a chance ....

You believe that the majority of French people are desperate to leave the EU whereas I do not. You are basing your view on the opinions of a few people living somewhere in the depths of rural France whereas I am basing mine on the manifestos and the result of the 2017 French General Election.

Another report in another FRENCH newspaper for you:

Brexit : pour Macron, la France aurait "probablement" également voté pour une sortie de l'UE

".... le journaliste lui demande si le vote des Français aurait pu être le même que celui des Britanniques en 2016. "Oui", lâche le Président ..."

Translated .... "would the vote by the French have been the same as the British in 2016? Yes, "dropped/let slip the President".

He said that, given a binary choice, the French would have also voted to leave the EU. However, he has no intention of giving them any choice - see my other posts about the 2005 French vote to reject the Lisbon Treaty, which was ignored.

There's no point in quoting French newspapers as I don't speak French well enough and you already told us that they are mostly under Government control anyway !

So I will stick to my translation of what he actually said (see paragraph 4 - all in English for the benefit of us uneducated types):

Emmanuel Macron: French would 'probably' vote to leave EU

And rejecting the European Constitution in 2005 does NOT equate to wanting to leave the EU. Ireland initially did the same and have never wanted to leave and so did other members.

His decision to add 10 billion euros of tax cuts to try and buy off the gilet jaunes will be interesting to watch. The population is unconvinced and he will have to give more. Those already made take France beyond the EU-acceptable budget deficit of 3% .... wonder what the Italians will make of that?

French borrowing costs jump on Macron wage rises, tax cuts | Reuters?

What does any of that have to do with the subject in hand ??

Christmas? Take your pick.

Do you support Remain?

You say there will be a general Election after Christmas; £50 payable to the winner by PayPal says there won't be one in the entire month of January.

Get your tenners out.

 

[Swotty]

I get it and I'm not twisting anything:


You believe that the majority of French people are desperate to leave the EU whereas I do not. You are basing your view on the opinions of a few people living somewhere in the depths of rural France whereas I am basing mine on the manifestos and the result of the 2017 French General Election.




There's no point in quoting French newspapers as I don't speak French well enough and you already told us that they are mostly under Government control anyway !

So I will stick to my translation of what he actually said (see paragraph 4 - all in English for the benefit of us uneducated types):

Emmanuel Macron: French would 'probably' vote to leave EU

And rejecting the European Constitution in 2005 does NOT equate to wanting to leave the EU. Ireland initially did the same and have never wanted to leave and so did other members.




What does any of that have to do with the subject in hand ??




You say there will be a general Election after Christmas; £50 payable to the winner by PayPal says there won't be one in the entire month of January.

Get your tenners out.

QED - you're still misquoting me.

The significance of what's happening to Macron ... you are joking, I take it?

Other countries voting .... are either ignored or told to vote again until they get the "right" decision.

Are you a remainer?

 

[Scott_F]

QED - you're still misquoting me

I quoted directly from your post #5609 but hey-ho.

The significance of what's happening to Macron ... you are joking, I take it??

No I'm sticking to the subject of the discussion which is whether the majority of French voters want to leave the EU.

Other countries voting .... are either ignored or told to vote again until they get the "right" decision.

This we know. But you still seem to assume that a rejection of the European Constitution amounted to a desire to leave the EU which it most certainly did not.

Are you a remainer?

Yes and I'm a Remainer who will be £50 better off on January 31st when you agree to put your money down.

 

[Swotty]

I quoted directly from your post #5609 but hey-ho.




No I'm sticking to the subject of the discussion which is whether the majority of French voters want to leave the EU.




This we know. But you still seem to assume that a rejection of the European Constitution amounted to a desire to leave the EU which it most certainly did not.




Yes and I'm a Remainer who will be £50 better off on January 31st when you agree to put your money down.

You seem to be making a non-argument for the sake of it. It's taking up both space and time on the board and getting us nowhere.

As there is so much more constructive and accurate comment on the board, I suggest we leave it there and agree to disagree.

 

[Scott_F]

You seem to be making a non-argument for the sake of it. It's taking up both space and time on the board and getting us nowhere.

As there is so much more constructive and accurate comment on the board, I suggest we leave it there and agree to disagree.

I'm challenging your statement that Macron has said most people in France want to follow the UK and leave the EU along with your earlier one where you said that no country will be able to leave after next April unless all the other 26 members agree.

Both are incorrect and since the entire Brexit debate has been mired in such misinformation by each side your statements are not at all helpful.

You also now seem to lack the courage of your convictions regarding an imminent General Election too.

 

[Swotty]

I'm challenging your statement that Macron has said most people in France want to follow the UK and leave the EU along with your earlier one where you said that no country will be able to leave after next April unless all the other 26 members agree.

Both are incorrect and since the entire Brexit debate has been mired in such misinformation by each side your statements are not at all helpful.

You also now seem to lack the courage of your convictions regarding an imminent General Election too.

O.K I'll play a little longer ...... read your first paragraph again. You are again making up the first part (why?) and the second part I have already answered several times. Your last paragraph is also incorrect. Your spin is so obvious, but why do you feel you have to do it?

Here's a reminder for those who want to remain in the EU:

“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.”
-- Jean Monnet

Here's another:

Why are you so keen to remain if you haven't read/don't understand the implications of the Lisbon Treaty?

And so as to broaden the debate:

Name 4 good reasons why the UK should stay in the EU (hint, visa-free travel doesn't count).

 

[m80]

As Sir Humphry, to work from within to destroy their policies.

C'mon Swotty anyone can see the logic there.

 

[Dryce]

Says the Grand Master of irrelevant philosophising and tangential thinking.

You do realise that having come up with that title you are obligated to get me the T-Shirt with it suitably emblazoned across the front *and back*.

And there's nothing complicated about the French electorate being offered the chance to leave the Eurozone but choosing to reject the opportunity.

You do seem very determined to spin things and rather conveniently 'simplify' the choice that had to be made in that statement.

 

[LTD]

You say there will be a general Election after Christmas; £50 payable to the winner by PayPal says there won't be one in the entire month of January.

Get your tenners out.

An actual General Election vote or just a decision to call one ?

Huge difference if you are a betting man.

I doubt one vote would be cast in January if a GE was called tomorrow.

Vote in a ballot box ? I’d take that bet. With the onset of Christmas/New Year and the purdah that ensues before the campaign, you have already lost.

 

[Swotty]

As Sir Humphry, to work from within to destroy their policies.

C'mon Swotty anyone can see the logic there.

If only!

Been trying for 40 years .... they just ignore us.

 

[Scott_F]

O.K I'll play a little longer ...... read your first paragraph again. You are again making up the first part (why?) and the second part I have already answered several times. Your last paragraph is also incorrect. Your spin is so obvious, but why do you feel you have to do it?)

What exactly have I made up ?

As I have already explained, we have had two-and-a-half years of Brexit debate and far too much of what we have heard from both camps has been lies, misinformation and guesswork.

So when you come along and pile yet more dung on the heap with "No one will be allowed the leave the EU after April without everyone else agreeing - my mate at the Foreign Office told me" and "The French want to leave the EU too - even Macron says so but he won't give them the chance" then you must expect to be challenged.

Why are you so keen to remain if you haven't read/don't understand the implications of the Lisbon Treaty?

No one here has read the Lisbon Treaty and that includes you. You tried to bluff your case when you posted a link to a 280-odd page document but when I asked you where the salient point was it was a case of "Err..well I have read it but it was ages ago but it's in the middle somewhere". Very helpful and informative.....

And you don't need to understand the details of the Constitution for Europe to recognise the EU's political shortcomings whilst acknowledging its economic benefits.

And so as to broaden the debate:

Name 4 good reasons why the UK should stay in the EU (hint, visa-free travel doesn't count).

1. The economy
2. The economy
3. The economy
4. The economy

 

[Scott_F]

An actual General Election vote or just a decision to call one ?

Huge difference if you are a betting man.

I doubt one vote would be cast in January if a GE was called tomorrow.

Vote in a ballot box ? I’d take that bet. With the onset of Christmas/New Year and the purdah that ensues before the campaign, you have already lost.

I took it as meaning an election taking place immediately after Christmas:

My bet's on a GE after Christmas .....

However, I really don't know what he meant although I'd take the bet simply on an election being called in January.

But it looks as though he's gone cold on his prediction which is a shame as this is such an expensive time of year.....

 

[LTD]

OK

Now that the Belgian Government has collapsed over an issue with a migration policy, who thinks we should throw two fingers up to the EU and tell them to ‘do one’, no deal and force a hard Irish Border ?

The Brexit game of poker has just got a bit tasty ......

Holland and Italy were touted as countries with the greatest potential to leave the DU after the UK but Belgium ?

The centre of the EU beurocracy having a Government collapse over migration ?

Really ?

 

[markjay]

... who thinks we should throw two fingers up to the EU and tell them to ‘do one’, no deal and force a hard Irish Border ?..

You are in fact asking May to call a general election... hard Irish border means the DUP are out of the coalition.

 

[LTD]

You are in fact asking May to call a general election... hard Irish border means the DUP are out of the coalition.

I am suggesting that a subtle comment to the EU about a ‘possible’ intention to take the ‘nuclear option’ could rattle the foundation of the EU.

I still believe they need us more than we need them.

The semantics of the exit is just a matter of agreeing the path of least resistance.

We are now in a position to exert some leverage.

 

[Nicebutdim]

I am suggesting that a subtle comment to the EU about a ‘possible’ intention to take the ‘nuclear option’ could rattle the foundation of the EU.
.

Yeah!! Let’s nuke the EU. That’s a proper hard brexit. Is that why the army is on standby?

Seriously, why is the army on standby? Will they quell the uprising of the remainiac loser mob as we skip joyously through the E.U. exit door with no deal. Perhaps the army will be able to deliver my medication. I’ve nearly run out of aspirin. Will I need to put in an order?

 

[Alfie]

I doubt very much there will be a general election. This government is in a mess and the last thing they need or want right now is to have to fight an election they may well lose. That said, I don't think any party would have an overall majority which would lead us to a small coalition of some sort with whatever government having such a slim majority (like this one) that they will struggle to get any legislation passed. Frying pan and fire come to mind.