USA Geared up for conflict in Ukraine.

[Dryce]

Quite mesmerising watching just how many US UK and NATO aircraft are constantly patrolling. Providing Info

There's a question as to how many are actually visible.

So you see the tankers doing race tracks for several hours and you can assume that apart from any nearby AWACS that there are other aircraft not not the 'scope' that are being refuelled.

There have been B-52s on the 'scope' a week or two back.

There are intelligence aircraft running up and down the borders. Including a Swedish aircraft every few days.

This is about real intelligence gathering and about defence posture. The intelligence gathering would be regardless of any help or support to Ukraine. Russia has threatened NATO and Sweden and Finland - so those aircraft rdepresent a defensive wall with soldiers on the wall and sentries on the gate watching for trouble. They need to be seen *at the oment*. So the transponders are switched on so they are visible to us and to the Russians so there is no doubt that the wall is there and patrolled.

These are not good times.

 

[Dryce]

What is incredible is the endurance of the Global Hawk UAV that regularly patrols the Black Sea for hours and hours and hours.
I see this morning that one of the big boys is out and about:

B-52 can take a direct route or indirect route.

This one took a direct route.

 

[190]

Makes it even worse, the fact it was a Ukrainian designed and built missile!

The Russians may not be admitting that it was a Ukrainian made missile that led to the ship sinking but they are still looking for revenge by recommencing bombardment of Kyiv and they have pulled their whole fleet out of missile range from the shore which leaves the question in no doubt. I wonder how many billion rubles it will cost to replace that flag ship.

Ukraine latest updates: Is Russia a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’?

Ukraine news from April 15: Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to US President Joe Biden, Washington Post reports.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Dryce]

The Russians may not be admitting that it was a Ukrainian made missile that led to the ship sinking but they are still looking for revenge by recommencing bombardment of Kyiv and they have pulled their whole fleet out of missile range from the shore which leaves the question in no doubt. I wonder how many billion rubles it will cost to replace that flag ship.

'Looking for revenge'.

Clear signal things not going as they envisaged. They started this apalling invasion.

But consider the aftermath of the Russian pullout from the north and the evidence of attocities.

The price of those attrocities to Russia is that Ukraine cannot give up to them.

If this was an invasion of the UK and the invaders had left our towns like that then how would *WE* feel. We wouldn't be looking to concede control of our country to such people. We'd draw a breath and grit our teeth and realise the pain of what was ahead and know hat we had to resist with everything,

We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land, and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: It is victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be.​

 

[st13phil]

But consider the aftermath of the Russian pullout from the north and the evidence of attocities.

The price of those attrocities to Russia is that Ukraine cannot give up to them.

That’s what is so baffling about the Russian military: they do things that guarantees maximum resistance. Extraordinary tactics.

 

[davymead]

This morning again a number of various types of (visible) military aircraft circling.

 

[davymead]

That’s what is so baffling about the Russian military: they do things that guarantees maximum resistance. Extraordinary tactics.

Totally agree. With SO much global hardware being amassed against him, Putin‘s options are becoming worryingly few.

 

[Dryce]

That’s what is so baffling about the Russian military: they do things that guarantees maximum resistance. Extraordinary tactics.

Lack of cohesion from top to bottom.

- Poor political management
- Poor political planning
- Poor miltary planning
- Poor military training
- Poor military operation
- Poor inlelligence

When it all started to get drawn out and the losses mounted they had no reponse other than to pulverise and terrorise.

There are stories about the vicious foolish despot Putin having arrested senior generals and staff. All very Stalinesque.

 

[johnsco]

The six 'Ps' of planning ...
Perfect Planning Prevents Pi$$-Poor Performance

[From the planning board in our old machine shop]

 

[E55BOF]

Oh, there was a plan; lots of them, in fact, but as it turned out, none of them any good.

Old military maxim: No plan survives contact with the enemy.

Another old military maxim: When you're up to your ar5e in alligators, it can be difficult to remember that the original objective was to drain the swamp.

I think that latter is particularly apposite in this case...

 

[Diesel Benz]

The Russians may not be admitting that it was a Ukrainian made missile that led to the ship sinking but they are still looking for revenge by recommencing bombardment of Kyiv and they have pulled their whole fleet out of missile range from the shore which leaves the question in no doubt. I wonder how many billion rubles it will cost to replace that flag ship.

Ukraine latest updates: Is Russia a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’?

Ukraine news from April 15: Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to US President Joe Biden, Washington Post reports.

www.aljazeera.com

They do not admit the ship sinking from Ukrainian missiles, say just fire from some accident. Still they bomb Kyiv for a revenge. I interpret the revenge was for the ship built with poor fire safety.

 

[johnsco]

Old military maxim:
Give us the tools and we'll finish the job
Old Copper Works maxim:
Give us the job and we'll finish the tools.

 

[Wearsthefoxhat]

They do not admit the ship sinking from Ukrainian missiles, say just fire from some accident. Still they bomb Kyiv for a revenge. I interpret the revenge was for the ship built with poor fire safety.

Poor training, poor damage control, a badly designed major warship or just more lies from the Kremlin. Denial of yet another f u…

 

[E55BOF]

All of the above. The Slavas are Cold War-era vessels, and warship design has come on a lot since then. The cruise missiles in the big launch tubes on deck each have a ton of high explosive in the warhead, and it's not modern high explosive that is more difficult to detonate accidentally.

 

[GeeJayW]

There's a question as to how many are actually visible.

So you see the tankers doing race tracks for several hours and you can assume that apart from any nearby AWACS that there are other aircraft not not the 'scope' that are being refuelled.

There have been B-52s on the 'scope' a week or two back.

There are intelligence aircraft running up and down the borders. Including a Swedish aircraft every few days.

This is about real intelligence gathering and about defence posture. The intelligence gathering would be regardless of any help or support to Ukraine. Russia has threatened NATO and Sweden and Finland - so those aircraft rdepresent a defensive wall with soldiers on the wall and sentries on the gate watching for trouble. They need to be seen *at the oment*. So the transponders are switched on so they are visible to us and to the Russians so there is no doubt that the wall is there and patrolled.

These are not good times.

The only military aircraft that are visible on Flight tracker apps are those that the military want to be seen. Certain to be other western military aviation assets in the region besides those we can see on flight tracker. The Russians ought to be able to see what’s up, but after some of the screw up of late from them, I wouldn’t like to swear to that.

 

[Dryce]

The only military aircraft that are visible on Flight tracker apps are those that the military want to be seen. Certain to be other western military aviation assets in the region besides those we can see on flight tracker. The Russians ought to be able to see what’s up, but after some of the screw up of late from them, I wouldn’t like to swear to that.

The (visible) tanker activity seems to be more persistent.

This is consistent with the statement that there are fighters now continually patrolling bordering air space.

The increase in emotion in the state media in Russia would suggest they are preparing for further political and military escalation.

The vicious foolish despot Putin is in a policy trap of his own making. Russia is currently humiliated and in a conflict it has not managed to control and conclude as expected.

The world is not safe.

I'm intrigued that the so called 'doomsday clock' seems to be stuck at its setting from three months ago. In times of peace it is so moved this way and that as those who pronounce on it demonstrate their superior judgment of the world state. So why don't these prententious bozos move it when there is such clear and present danger at the moment? Are they desk academics and just too scared to face the situation when it becomes genuinely apparent and real?

 

[GeeJayW]

The (visible) tanker activity seems to be more persistent.

This is consistent with the statement that there are fighters now continually patrolling bordering air space.

The increase in emotion in the state media in Russia would suggest they are preparing for further political and military escalation.

The vicious foolish despot Putin is in a policy trap of his own making. Russia is currently humiliated and in a conflict it has not managed to control and conclude as expected.

The world is not safe.

I'm intrigued that the so called 'doomsday clock' seems to be stuck at its setting from three months ago. In times of peace it is so moved this way and that as those who pronounce on it demonstrate their superior judgment of the world state. So why don't these prententious bozos move it when there is such clear and present danger at the moment? Are they desk academics and just too scared to face the situation when it becomes genuinely apparent and real?

The tankers have been on station over areas along the Ukrainian and Belarus borders since the beginning of this conflict and to a lesser extent before it started. NATO, USAF and RAF surveillance assets have also been on station for prolonged periods. These were in Ukrainian air space along the borders with Russia in the East and Belarus to the north as they monitored the so-called exercises that Putin and his little buddy were carrying out as part of the build up. The US have been operating UAV surveillance drones out of Sicily to patrol various areas including the Black Sea and up to to the Baltics for the last couple of months at least. All done openly on Flight tracker.

I think the current US state of readiness is Defcon 3. It was raised to that level on March 1st. My assumption is that the UK and EU states of readiness are at similar levels.

Putin expected, and I think was briefed accordingly by his cronies, that Ukraine would fold in a week and that the West would do nothing. I think he believed (maybe still does) that the mighty Russian armed forces would simply crush the opposition.

Well, the mighty Russian forces have so far shown that while they can ’throw bigger stones’ than the Ukrainians, that has not so far got the job done. They have also shown complacency on a grand scale, considerable tactical incompetence, and total disregard and brutality towards civilian lives, in fact they seem to have focused on soft targets, especially in Mariupol which has been pretty much destroyed. If there have not been many thousand civilian lives lost there I will be truly astonished.

The worry now is that Putin has set May 9th for the victory parade and unless Ukraine capitulate, will resort to even more extreme actions to achieve his objectives.

In the first instance, Putin will try to simply wipe out/erase Ukraine. If he can’t have it, no-one else will. He’ll try to do that by flattening cities probably without using nuclear weapons. His hope will be that NATO will still not be able to directly engage if they want to avoid him using nukes in the rest of Europe and the US. That is his final option, his ace in the hole.

To achieve his objectives without having to use weapons of last resort, Putin is relying NATO to act with restraint in the face of aggressive provocation from him as he pummels Ukraine out of existence. At the same time he accuses NATO as being the aggressor. Putin is unhinged and a massive liability. One can only hope that Russia wakes up to this and sorts itself out before it’s too late.

As for world safety, it truly is teetering on the edge and it’s hard to say how much sand is left in the timer.

 

[grober]

FOR STAMP COLLECTORS.

 

[SpikyMikey]

The tankers have been on station over areas along the Ukrainian and Belarus borders since the beginning of this conflict and to a lesser extent before it started. NATO, USAF and RAF surveillance assets have also been on station for prolonged periods. These were in Ukrainian air space along the borders with Russia in the East and Belarus to the north as they monitored the so-called exercises that Putin and his little buddy were carrying out as part of the build up. The US have been operating UAV surveillance drones out of Sicily to patrol various areas including the Black Sea and up to to the Baltics for the last couple of months at least. All done openly on Flight tracker.

I think the current US state of readiness is Defcon 3. It was raised to that level on March 1st. My assumption is that the UK and EU states of readiness are at similar levels.

Putin expected, and I think was briefed accordingly by his cronies, that Ukraine would fold in a week and that the West would do nothing. I think he believed (maybe still does) that the mighty Russian armed forces would simply crush the opposition.

Well, the mighty Russian forces have so far shown that while they can ’throw bigger stones’ than the Ukrainians, that has not so far got the job done. They have also shown complacency on a grand scale, considerable tactical incompetence, and total disregard and brutality towards civilian lives, in fact they seem to have focused on soft targets, especially in Mariupol which has been pretty much destroyed. If there have not been many thousand civilian lives lost there I will be truly astonished.

The worry now is that Putin has set May 9th for the victory parade and unless Ukraine capitulate, will resort to even more extreme actions to achieve his objectives.

In the first instance, Putin will try to simply wipe out/erase Ukraine. If he can’t have it, no-one else will. He’ll try to do that by flattening cities probably without using nuclear weapons. His hope will be that NATO will still not be able to directly engage if they want to avoid him using nukes in the rest of Europe and the US. That is his final option, his ace in the hole.

To achieve his objectives without having to use weapons of last resort, Putin is relying NATO to act with restraint in the face of aggressive provocation from him as he pummels Ukraine out of existence. At the same time he accuses NATO as being the aggressor. Putin is unhinged and a massive liability. One can only hope that Russia wakes up to this and sorts itself out before it’s too late.

As for world safety, it truly is teetering on the edge and it’s hard to say how much sand is left in the timer.

It does have all the makings of a situation that could get infinitely worse before it gets better.
It's an extremely worrying time.

 

[190]

The worry now is that Putin has set May 9th for the victory parade and unless Ukraine capitulate, will resort to even more extreme actions to achieve his objectives.

In the first instance, Putin will try to simply wipe out/erase Ukraine. If he can’t have it, no-one else will. He’ll try to do that by flattening cities probably without using nuclear weapons. His hope will be that NATO will still not be able to directly engage if they want to avoid him using nukes in the rest of Europe and the US. That is his final option, his ace in the hole.

To achieve his objectives without having to use weapons of last resort, Putin is relying NATO to act with restraint in the face of aggressive provocation from him as he pummels Ukraine out of existence. At the same time he accuses NATO as being the aggressor. Putin is unhinged and a massive liability. One can only hope that Russia wakes up to this and sorts itself out before it’s too late.

As for world safety, it truly is teetering on the edge and it’s hard to say how much sand is left in the timer.

If Putin does escalate and attempt to flatten Ukraine I'm sure that sanctions will be ramped up further. Both the bombardment and the sanctions will cost large amounts of money and further impoverish the Russian economy for a very long time to come. If they are placing trust in China, that may turn out to be a mistake. China is the friend of nobody but China.

While I would like to see it happen I don't think Putin will be ousted by his own people, it may even make him stronger as the Russians in their pride buckle down to the hardship, They are very likely to have no choice as Putin becomes more and more oppressive of his own people. There will be a cleansing of any Russians not 100% behind Putin and the war. People will disappear in huge numbers like the old days. This is why a quarter of a million of the smart ones have already left for the west. Russia seems set to turn into another North Korea. Like North Korea they will continue to spend a disproportionate amount of GDP on the military while most of the population are brain washed and in poverty.

I don't know what the West can do about this. They haven't been able to resolve the problem of North Korea and they won't be able to do anything about Russia either. Both will continue down the same path as long as they have their current leaders in power. All we can do is isolate them as far as possible which at least places some limits on the danger they represent.