Covid-19 Discussion

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Again, on the subject of numbers, it's worth highlighting this quote from Public Health England:

"The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season.
"The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually.
"This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15."

28,330 deaths in 2014/15, compared to 440 so far from Covid-19 (plus 70 seasonal flu deaths as at mid-February 2020)

Every death is serious, but we should be wary of the incremental effect.

Learning to wash our hands will improve Public Health, and the lock down will temporarily decrease the number of road deaths.

As for Spouse homicide : who knows where that number may go.
 
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Crewie said:
I know what I said so read my comments again it’s the Chinese that started this and my comments adhere to it !!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Are you now posting in translated Chinese?
 
For a proportion of my "career" I was tasked with providing statistical information. On more than one occasion I would ask those I reported to what they wanted to prove or illustrate. I would produce the info to suit their chosen angle.

Presently, we are being bombarded with statistics and projections and whilst in no way am I trivialising or minimising the ongoing crisis, such pronouncements and edicts are predictably Londoncentric.

On the simple statistical fact that Scotland has a tenth of the population of England and a fraction of the diversity, it is no surprise that the South-East of England is racing way ahead in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and related deaths.

Here in the Scottish Borders (pop 115000), Galashiels (pop 15000) alone is served by, amongst others, Tesco, ASDA and M&S. Yesterday, there was clear evidence of caution and social distancing, but with the usual Borderers good humour and banter. Although there were empty shelves, this was more down to reduced choice, rather than lack of stock. No fights, pushing, swearing or stockpiling. We did a swift shop at Tesco and Melrose Co-op and got all we wanted.

So far, only 12 confirmed cases here, but I suspect there will now be even more disproportionate reporting now that Charlie-Boy has displayed "mild symptoms".
 
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del320 said:
On the simple statistical fact that Scotland has a tenth of the population of England and a fraction of the diversity, it is no surprise that the South-East of England is racing way ahead in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and related deaths.
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Scotland's figure for those infected was looking higher than 10% if you took out London because it was a hotspot. OTOH the number of deaths was low.

So I think there's an issue of how numbers are being reported. I think more people have perhaps been tested in Scotland while the number of deaths may just be lower because it is running a few days behind the rest of the UK.

This is noteworthy because it shows that the numbers being reported are subject to regional infection variation, detection variation, and interpretation.

There have been a couple of cases of celebrities being tested with no or miimla symptoms. Does that mean we have asymptomatc carriers? Or does it mean that we have tests that produce a high % of false positives (a % of false negs and positives are to be expected).

It also struck me that an unscrupulous private test facility could charge a client - claim they were positive - generate more work as the client informed friends and contacts who then also pay to get tested.
 
Dryce said:
So I think there's an issue of how numbers are being reported.
There have been a couple of cases of celebrities being tested with no or miimla symptoms. Does that mean we have asymptomatc carriers? Or does it mean that we have tests that produce a high % of false positives (a % of false negs and positives are to be expected).
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Hence my comment about statistics and projections...
 
It seems strange to me that children don't appear to be affected. I know nothing about the subject but is this in keeping with
other viruses ?
 
One holdup on Covid 19 testing has been a shortage of special lab chemicals and equipment required for sampling and subsequent PCR testing
Coronavirus Sample Collection Tool Shortages Will be Short-Lived, According to Suppliers
Many of these are manufactured in the USA and according to a friend in Switzerland exports of these to Europe have been restricted by the Defence Production Act recently invoked by Donald Trump.
Donald Trump plans to use defence production act for virus test kits
It appears that during this crisis its not just the citizens of the citizens of the US that have to suffer the consequences of this guys intellectual inadequacy?
https://www.sterilab.co.uk/products/covid-19/universal-transport-swab-medium/
 
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grober said:
It appears that during this crisis its not just the citizens of the citizens of the US that have to suffer the consequences of this guys intellectual inadequacy?
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Iran is on its knees and would have been in a much better place to deal with this had Trump's sanctions not trashed their economy and restricted imports. Trump's ideology will leave C-19 floating around the world for far longer than it otherwise would. He imperils us all.
 
Bellow said:
Iran is on its knees and would have been in a much better place to deal with this had Trump's sanctions not trashed their economy and restricted imports.
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FWIW, the USA offered Iran assistance in the terms of medical equipment, testing kits, etc. But Iran refused the offer, claiming it was a ruse for America to infect the whole Iranian population.

Madness is not confined to Trump.
 
st13phil said:
FWIW, the USA offered Iran assistance in the terms of medical equipment, testing kits, etc. But Iran refused the offer, claiming it was a ruse for America to infect the whole Iranian population.

Madness is not confined to Trump.
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For sure?
I saw a Whitehouse representative claiming Costa and Starbucks giving free drinks to NHS workers as part of the USA's global aid programme.
Is anything believable any more? 'We just don't know, just don't know' (copyright D.Trump)
 
Well, the news came from one of the Iranian mad mullahs, so who knows whether it’s true or not :dk:
 
Bellow said:
For sure?
I saw a Whitehouse representative claiming Costa and Starbucks giving free drinks to NHS workers as part of the USA's global aid programme.
Is anything believable any more? 'We just don't know, just don't know' (copyright D.Trump)
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Is that so they can make face masks from the paper cup when empty ?
331A280D-EF0B-47FD-BDA3-89CC6D51C980.jpeg
Disclaimer. Please don’t try this at home.
 
@Mr. B
Good list but you missed out all the Tory ministers who over the past 10yrs have systematically weakened the NHS.
Repeatedly underfunding it
1.so equipment levels are low

2. Freezing already low nurses wages for 6 years....and then only giving them a 1% pay rise (in effect a 12-15% paycut due to inflation).

3. Making nurses pay for their own degree training - so you can get a £40k debt to get a £23k job - added to the above point is why it is not a popular career choice especially in the South East where rental of a bedsit will be around £750 pcm and a one bed flat £12-1500pcm. - and there is currently a 40,000 shortage of nurses.

4. Shortages of funds mean there is scant money to do proper emergency planning not stockpile of supplies.

5. Many hospitals are ancient and falling apart - Hillingdon Hospital recently had to close its children’s ward, due to it crumbling...there is no money to repair/replace.

And the people who voted for them.... who tacitly agreed with all the above.

Maybe lots of people will re-evaluate the importance of the NHS to UKplc once this is over - I hope so, because what if Covid22, 23, 24, 25 etc is worse....

Mrs FS has been a nurse for 40yrs, retired 2 yrs ago, but returned last year because she felt guilty that she has the skills, and nursing was in crisis - and that was before any of this, it makes my blood boil.
 
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Flyinspanner said:
@Mr. B
Good list but you missed out all the Tory ministers who over the past 10yrs have systematically weakened the NHS.
Repeatedly underfunding it
1.so equipment levels are low

2. Freezing already low nurses wages for 6 years....and then only giving them a 1% pay rise (in effect a 12-15% paycut due to inflation).

3. Making nurses pay for their own degree training - so you can get a £40k debt to get a £23k job - added to the above point is why it is not a popular career choice especially in the South East where rental of a bedsit will be around £750 pcm and a one bed flat £12-1500pcm. - and there is currently a 40,000 shortage of nurses.

4. Shortages of funds mean there is scant money to do proper emergency planning not stockpile of supplies.

5. Many hospitals are ancient and falling apart - Hillingdon Hospital recently had to close its children’s ward, due to it crumbling...there is no money to repair/replace.

And the people who voted for them.... who tacitly agreed with all the above.

Maybe lots of people will re-evaluate the importance of the NHS to UKplc once this is over - I hope so, because what if Covid22, 23, 24, 25 etc is worse....

Mrs FS has been a nurse for 40yrs, retired 2 yrs ago, but returned last year because she felt guilty that she has the skills, and nursing was in crisis - and that was before any of this, it makes my blood boil.
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No. 5 ... no PFI?
 
Spot the guy talking sense and the one talking drivel- should not be too difficult!
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@OP - from what I've read most often on Covid 19:

It most likely came from live Bats rather than Pangolins although no one can be absolutely certain.

There's nothing in the genetics to suggest it has been modified by scientists so it a natural flu.

It's dodgy because like SARS and Swine Flu, it came from animals but unlike SARS and Swine Flu, it mutated to pass from human to human in a couple of weeks.
 
He's playing that invisible accordion again! The more he plays the greater the lies and hyperbole
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Mr. B said:
I shouldn’t eat any diary because it doesn’t agree with me. :(

I’m not going to criticise the Chinese but what I will say is that nearly all the Chinese tourists I see throughout the year have virtually no dress sense/style.

Now I’m no Brad Pitt or fashion guru I will admit to that but some of the outfits they wear look as though they have been into Woolworths and helped themselves to a pick n mix from the clothing department.
Nothing appears to match unless it’s me I need to go to spec savers :dk:

Just to be clear I do like the Chinese people.
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Do you take fancy matching outfits when on an overseas touring holiday? I don't. I'm more concerned with comfort and functionality than appearance (actually that is me most of the time).:)
 
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