Where has this Disaster Originated? Covid-19 Discussion - No Politics!

ChipChop

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OK, so is there still a need - in your view - for the implementation of mitigation measures (The Great Barrington Declaration), and for rolling-out the vaccine to it's maximum effectiveness (21 days between shots)?

This was essentially my question from the start.
There is no political will to change course from the current policy of suppression until vaccination to mitigation until herd immunity through infection and recovery is achieved. Pointless question.
 

ChipChop

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Well the mortality rates were not 'normal' in the sense that public behavour was significantly altered and not normal reducing exposure to some other diseases and things like accident rates - and there had been some deaths in the peak of the frst wave that were perhaps brought forward by some weeks or months.
I do not disagree. As well as modified behaviour reducing normal exposure to pathogens/ accidents etc other factors however will also have caused deaths. A very obvious example being lack of healthcare and indeed fear of healthcare settings and associated risks. Interesting article from Johns Hopkins which you may see as relevant...

 

merc85

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So: 2020 saw more deaths in the UK than any year since 1940.
COVID-19: How mortality rates in 2020 compare with past decades and centuries

(other graphs are available)
Population is alot more though now than it was then, And along with covid deaths being made up early on, along with the 28 day fiasco.

And perhaps a Helping Hand...
https://www.thebernician.net/criminal-correlation-between-vaxxtermination-roll-out-covid-deaths/
 
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ChipChop

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Interesting that the figures for the 27th December are approx 5000 more than any previous year, as I said in a previous post - a trip to specsavers might be of some assistance to you. You also made no comment about my question regarding the excess deaths in April to May 2020.
27th December is Week 52. According to Public Health England in week 52 2020, "no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall in England"


The dramatic dips in the nightingale diagram are due to bank holidays where no data is reported. You may note the same Christmas & New Year dip is also evident at the end of August, the end and beginning of May and in April. Bank holidays. People do not suddenly stop dying during bank holidays surprisingly enough.
 
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knighterrant

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Population is alot more though now than it was then, And along with covid deaths being made up early on, along with the 28 day fiasco.
When you say "covid deaths being made up early on", do you mean that there were deaths that may have been incorrectly attributed to Covid, or deaths that didn't happen? If it's the former, then it would make no difference to the total (population adjusted) deaths in the chart posted by SW18. If it's the latter, do you have any evidence of that? And what's "the 28 day fiasco" and how does it influence the chart?
 

SW18

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Population is alot more though now than it was then
That’s why the graph is a population-adjusted one. It compensates for the population differences then and now so that a more direct comparison can be made.
 

SW18

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When you say "covid deaths being made up early on", do you mean that there were deaths that may have been incorrectly attributed to Covid, or deaths that didn't happen? If it's the former, then it would make no difference to the total (population adjusted) deaths in the chart posted by SW18. If it's the latter, do you have any evidence of that? And what's "the 28 day fiasco" and how does it influence the chart?
The “28-day fiasco” is the use of he measure ‘died within 28 days of a positive COVID test’. So it’s presumably your first scenario. It’s fair to question the 28-day method; some elderly may have died anyway. However, as you say, this can’t explain the fact that 85,000 extra people died last year. Conspiracy theorists have to look elsewhere for that.
 

ChipChop

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That’s why the graph is a population-adjusted one. It compensates for the population differences then and now so that a more direct comparison can be made.
So deaths per 1,000 population as a percentage of the 5 year average, but population adjusted. With a horizontal scale dating from 1840 to 2020. Oh and both world war deaths are featured but exclude any forces casualities on home soil. In red and black for added chutzpah.
 
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markjay

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COVID-19-related deaths by date reported:

 

SW18

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So deaths per 1,000 population as a percentage of the 5 year average, but population adjusted. With a horizontal scale dating from 1840 to 2020. Oh and both world war deaths are featured but exclude any forces casualities on home soil. In red and black for added chutzpah.
Yes - and the article has other graphs too; several methodologies were used and all paint a grim picture. Can’t help the red and black, Sky news corporate identity :(
 

markjay

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There is no political will to change course from the current policy of suppression until vaccination to mitigation until herd immunity through infection and recovery is achieved. Pointless question.

You have chosen not to provide an answer to my question because it is 'pointless', as you put it. Consequently, you have neither denied nor confirmed that this is indeed what you believe in. The point of my question was to demonstrate that what appears to be your set of beliefs contains an internal contradiction. But of course you can avoid addressing the issue I raised altogether, it's your prerogative

We do seem to agree, however, on the lack of political will to divert from the currentstrategyof suppression - worldwide, in fact. No country in the world has seriously considered The Great Barrington Declaration, let alone implemented it. And no country in the world is currently working on the assumption that its population already reached herd immunity. So it seems that - for now at least - the ideas of Prof Gupta and Dr Yeadon will be shelved for the foreseeable future. Which makes debating them any further, on this forum or elsewhere, a pointless discussion.
 

ChipChop

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I wonder what the England/ Wales/ Scotland/ NI / UK version of this graph of Swedens all cause mortality would look like...

swedendeaths.jpeg
 

Scooby_Doo

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27th December is Week 52. According to Public Health England in week 52 2020, "no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall in England"


The dramatic dips in the nightingale diagram are due to bank holidays where no data is reported. You may note the same Christmas & New Year dip is also evident at the end of August, the end and beginning of May and in April. Bank holidays. People do not suddenly stop dying during bank holidays surprisingly enough.
You posted a chart, and when questioned about what it shows, you quote another source that is at odds with it. Why post a chart if you think it's incorrect. Whilst you seem to be posting quite a lot of facts and figures you are somewhat reluctant in answering specific questions about the excess deaths during the past year. You remind of most politicians , ask them what time it is and the answer will be something like - " well it's raining in France at the moment".
 

markjay

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"By date reported".

So, by this methodology, you could report 20,000 deaths in the final week of the year, playing catch up?

p.s the answer is yes.


The answer is indeed yes, but only if you add an element of conspiracy theory into the equation.

The official version of events is that the data is simply published by the ONS as soon as the death reports come-in. Your question, on the other hand, suggests that the publication of the data could be deliberately delayed by the NHS or by the ONS, to suit a narrative.

Are the NHS and the ONS made-up of honest employees who just carry-out their duties as best they can? Or are they made-up of co-conspirators who receive their instructions from their puppetmasters? Only if you believe it's the latter, then the answer to your question is, again, yes.
 
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Bobby Dazzler

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I wonder whether other forums have such an intense thread on this subject?

Leaving personal tragedy and serious illness aside, for many of us COVID-19 could be the single biggest event affecting our lives and that of our loved ones, not to mention a UK and Global society.

That said the amount of time and effort spent reading, typing, researching and theorising on this thread genuinely surprises me, and all on a car forum. A marque specific car forum.

I admire people with a passion for something, whatever that might be, as long as it doesn’t negatively affect others. There are more than a fair share of passionate people on this thread.
 

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Surely 2020 will have a higher death rate than other years, as all the hospitals and doctors surgerys were a no go area for the general public.
I assume a lot of deaths are attributed to people thinking along the lines of "its just heart burn" or similar, then justifiying to their partners it wasn't safe to go to said facilities as it wasn't that important, only to wake up dead.
very basic but it must have happened a fair bit.
 
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ChipChop

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You posted a chart, and when questioned about what it shows, you quote another source that is at odds with it. Why post a chart if you think it's incorrect. Whilst you seem to be posting quite a lot of facts and figures you are somewhat reluctant in answering specific questions about the excess deaths during the past year. You remind of most politicians , ask them what time it is and the answer will be something like - " well it's raining in France at the moment".
If you are unaware of what a florence nightingale diagram represents it may be useful to look at the title or even go the cebm website where it will explain what you are looking at. Personally i am able to tell the time all by myself, so have no need to ask a politician. And if i did ask a politician i would thanks them for replying even though it is a stupid question.
 

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If you are unaware of what a florence nightingale diagram represents it may be useful to look at the title or even go the cebm website where it will explain what you are looking at. Personally i am able to tell the time all by myself, so have no need to ask a politician. And if i did ask a politician i would thanks them for replying even though it is a stupid question.
To what question is this the answer ?
 

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