Where has this Disaster Originated? Covid-19 Discussion - No Politics!

Scooby_Doo

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Surely 2020 will have a higher death rate than other years, as all the hospitals and doctors surgerys were a no go area for the general public.
I assume a lot of deaths are attributed to people thinking along the lines of "its just heart burn" or similar, then justifiying to their partners it wasn't safe to go to said facilities as it wasn't that important, only to wake up dead.
very basic but it must have happened a fair bit.
This must rate as the one of the most mindless posts on this thread.
 

markjay

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I wonder what the England/ Wales/ Scotland/ NI / UK version of this graph of Swedens all cause mortality would look like...

View attachment 107389

Did you mean omething like this?



From:
 

markjay

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It's worth noting that the excess deaths in 2020 should be seen as the compound effect of COVID-19 and our response to it, as opposed to deaths directly attributed to COVID-19.

We know we had less deaths during lockdown months due to reduction in road traffic accidents, workplace accidents, and crime. And, we had hardly any Flu this year due to anti-COVID-19 measures and the high uptake of the Flu jab, so consequently we had less Flu deaths than in previous years. On the other hand, there may have been an increase in deaths resulting from medical treatments for other non-COVID-19-related conditions being delayed, and also potentially due to suicides etc.

So all we can say with confidence is that the excces deaths reflect the compound effect of COVID-19 on mortality rates.
 

ChipChop

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It's worth noting that the excess deaths in 2020 should be seen as the compound effect of COVID-19 and our response to it, as opposed to deaths directly attributed to COVID-19.

We know we had less deaths during lockdown months due to reduction in road traffic accidents, workplace accidents, and crime. And, we had hardly any Flu this year due to anti-COVID-19 measures and the high uptake of the Flu jab, so consequently we had less Flu deaths than in previous years. On the other hand, there may have been an increase in deaths resulting from medical treatments for other non-COVID-19-related conditions being delayed, and also potentially due to suicides etc.

So all we can say with confidence is that the excces deaths reflect the compound effect of COVID-19 on mortality rates.
The huge reduction in flu influenza infections as a consequence of Western governments policies of suppression until vaccination does not however mean these flu / influenza corona viruses have gone away. Once (if) suppression policies are relaxed these viruses will be back with avengeance. Epidemiologists say they see a potentially dangerous consequence after coronavirus cases eventually decline — a rebound that could be frightfully large given the relaxation of social distancing and lowered immunity to other pathogens.

“The best analogy is to a forest fire,” said Bryan Grenfell, an epidemiologist and population biologist at Princeton. “For the fire to spread, it needs to have unburned wood. For epidemics to spread, they require people who haven’t previously been infected. So if people don’t get infected this year by these viruses, they likely will at some point later on.”

The possibility of a rebound is not merely theoretical: It appears to be happening already in Australia. Official reports showed historically low levels of flu-like illness among children and adults beginning in May, usually the start of flu season in that hemisphere. The sharp decline in cases came as the country imposed strict shutdown measures. But in the last few months, after the coronavirus was virtually obliterated and the country ended those restrictions, the number of flu cases among children aged 5 and younger began to soar, rising sixfold by December, when such cases are usually at their lowest.

So is the suppression tactic used for Covid-19 going to cause a flu/ influenza issue?

 
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ChipChop

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 1 January 2021 (Week 53) was 10,069. This was 1,451 less than Week 52.

ons week 53.jpg


Note O indicating Bank Holiday affected registrations for those who appear confused by decreased mortality on Bank holidays.
 

SW18

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 1 January 2021 (Week 53) was 10,069. This was 1,451 less than Week 52.

View attachment 107404
Very interesting to see that Wales had a smaller peak in April, but a more significant excess in Nov-Dec. I guess COVID did not take hold there as much at the start, but then did really take hold in Nov-Dec.
 

ChipChop

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Very interesting to see that Wales had a smaller peak in April, but a more significant excess in Nov-Dec. I guess COVID did not take hold there as much at the start, but then did really take hold in Nov-Dec.
Yes according to the ONS Scotland also had statistically significant excess mortality in week 48

Euromomo's excess map is a good guide ...

 

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I've heard the concern regarding the lack of natural flu immunity and the forecast rise in cases later when the 'dry tinder ' effect gets those that have shielded due to covid,
but I haven't heard much suggestion that the covid vaccine may well immunise from more than just covid.

Is it possible that any later rise in cases of whatever will be suppressed due to the covid vaccine?
I also imagine that the flu jab has been taken up by greater numbers this year.
 

knighterrant

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Very interesting to see that Wales had a smaller peak in April, but a more significant excess in Nov-Dec. I guess COVID did not take hold there as much at the start, but then did really take hold in Nov-Dec.
According to my family in Wales, the lower April peak encouraged a "more relaxed" approach to the guidelines later in the year.
 

markjay

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Scooby_Doo

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 1 January 2021 (Week 53) was 10,069. This was 1,451 less than Week 52.

View attachment 107404


Note O indicating Bank Holiday affected registrations for those who appear confused by decreased mortality on Bank holidays.
Nice try , on the 1451 less deaths than week 52 , you fail to mention that week 52 was +3500 deaths on previous 5 year average and week 53 was +2000 deaths on the 5 year average. If we accept that the deaths due to flu are less than normal it only makes the excess deaths even worse.
 

markjay

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Sadly, there's no respite (yet):

(By date reported)

 

ChipChop

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Nice try , on the 1451 less deaths than week 52 , you fail to mention that week 52 was +3500 deaths on previous 5 year average and week 53 was +2000 deaths on the 5 year average. If we accept that the deaths due to flu are less than normal it only makes the excess deaths even worse.
These are ONS figures and graphs so direct your sarcasm to them not me.

The ONS said the figures for the most recent week should be interpreted with caution as they had been affected by the Christmas Day bank holiday.

The number of deaths registered traditionally falls between these weeks, it added.

Despite the falls, the number of deaths was 44.8% (3,566 deaths) higher than the average for this week over the past five years.

The ONS said this was because this week in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 contained two bank holidays, as opposed to the one in 2020.


Now once again just to be sure you get it this time. Every bank holiday humans are not miraculously less inclined to die because it is a bank holiday. The dip in deaths on bank holidays is due to reporting. Kapish?
 
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Scooby_Doo

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These are ONS figures and graphs so direct your sarcasm to them not me.

The ONS said the figures for the most recent week should be interpreted with caution as they had been affected by the Christmas Day bank holiday.

The number of deaths registered traditionally falls between these weeks, it added.

Despite the falls, the number of deaths was 44.8% (3,566 deaths) higher than the average for this week over the past five years.

The ONS said this was because this week in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 contained two bank holidays, as opposed to the one in 2020.


Now once again just to be sure you get it this time. Every bank holiday humans are not miraculously less inclined to die because it is a bank holiday. The dip in deaths on bank holidays is due to reporting. Kapish?
I wasn't questioning the figures , it was your twist on figures as usual. I noted your previous comments regarding bank holidays and was well aware of the effect they have on deaths reported and I was under the impression that there have always been two bank holidays over christmas , irrespective of which week they fall in. So if we had one bank holiday in both weeks and aggregate the excess deaths over the two weeks this means that for week 52 & 53 there were an average of 2750 excess deaths each week in comparison to the previous 5 years. Do you agree with my take on the ONS statistics ?
 

markjay

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This can explain why at current we respond to COVID-19 with measures affecting the entire population, and why an immunity passport will help 'release' from some restrictions those who are at reduced risk to transmit the virus:


'Results

Under baseline assumptions, approximately 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission: 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who are never symptomatic'

'Meaning

The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2.'
 
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ChipChop

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This can explain why at current we respond to COVID-19 with measures affecting the entire population, and why an immunity passport will help 'release' from some restrictions those who are at reduced risk to transmit the virus:


'Results

Under baseline assumptions, approximately 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission: 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who are never symptomatic'

'Meaning

The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2.'
Interesting study.

One question if 24% of transmission comes from true asymptomatic cases, noting that once someone is determined presymptomatic they in fact were never asymptomatic at all and more likely to have been a misdiagnosed paucisymptomatic, why are hospitalisations as low as they are per 1000 of population? Is this indicative of the problems which can occur when a clinical diagnosis is deemed secondary (by the WHO) to a PCR test which determines what is a "case".

If 1 in 4 peoople were dangerous silent spreaders would we not have a much more obvious healthcare problem? The majority of every family unit of 4 or more would be infected.

Or does that indicate the process of infection and recovery is at work (natural immunity), something which remains untested within the general population with only healthcare workers being tested for antibodies currently.

You will also have noted that this study is a "simplistic model to represent a complex phenomenon".
 
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ChipChop

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On the subject of interesting studies on the SARS-CoV2 subject here are a couple...

  • Countries with the highest Covid-19 death rates also have the highest rates of influenza vaccine uptake among the elderly. For 20 European countries there was a strong geographic correlation.



  • There is a moderate geographic correlations between BCG (a turberculosis vaccine) use and Covid-19 death rates: countries with a long history of BCG use now have substantially lower Covid-19 death rates than countries with shorter histories or non-use of BCG.

 
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ChipChop

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I wasn't questioning the figures , it was your twist on figures as usual. I noted your previous comments regarding bank holidays and was well aware of the effect they have on deaths reported and I was under the impression that there have always been two bank holidays over christmas , irrespective of which week they fall in. So if we had one bank holiday in both weeks and aggregate the excess deaths over the two weeks this means that for week 52 & 53 there were an average of 2750 excess deaths each week in comparison to the previous 5 years. Do you agree with my take on the ONS statistics ?
It is more valid to draw a straight line from week 50 (not a Bank Holiday week) all the way over to week 2 (not a Bank holiday week) the following year. The dip in deaths is due to reporting, people still die at the same seasonal rate on bank holidays.
 

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