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C240Sport97 said:
So Ferguson has nothing useful or interesting to say, he is just a mouthpiece for statistics ..

how the mighty have fallen 😂
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“So, professor, what would you say is your main area of expertise?”

“Stating the bleedin’ obvious for the BBC.”
 
ChipChop said:
Cases -
08/01 - 14/01 = 302,786 ⬇️
01/01 - 07/01 = 347,355 ⬆️
24/12 - 31/12 = 300,193 ⬆️
16/12 - 23/12 = 236,274 ⬆️
08/12 - 15/12 = 137,875

Friday 14th January CFR is 2.64%
Friday 7th January CFR was 2.72%
Friday 1st January CFR was 2.92%
Tuesday 29th December CFR was 3.05%
Sunday 27th December CFR was 3.12%
Tuesday 22nd December CFR was 3.24%
Sunday 20th December CFR was 3.30%
Saturday 19th December CFR was 3.35%
Monday 14th December CFR was 3.47%
Saturday 12th December CFR was 3.51%
Tuesday 1st December CFR was 3.59%
Wednesday 25th November CFR was 3.63%
Saturday 21st November CFR was 3.68%
Wednesday18th November CFR was 3.74%
Saturday 14th November CFR was 3.89%
Monday 9th November CFR was 4.11%
Friday 6th November CFR was 4.28%
Tuesday 3rd November CFR was 4.45%
Sunday 1st November CFR was 4.60%
Thursday 29th Oct CFR was 4.85%
Tuesday 27th Oct CFR was 4.94%
Sunday 25th Oct CFR was 5.24%
Tuesday 20th Oct CFR was 5.9%
Friday 16th Oct CFR was 6.3%.
Monday 12th Oct CFR was 6.78%.
Thursday 8th Oct CFR was 7.8%.
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What are you trying to say ?? what conclusion can we draw from all this data ??????????????????????????
 
(By date reported)

38054072-9150747-image-a-92_1610727622727.jpg


Light at the end of the tunnel?
 
Scooby_Doo said:
What are you trying to say ?? what conclusion can we draw from all this data ??????????????????????????
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Thats a lot of question marks. Do you have a sticky keyboard?

To answer your question cases are positive PCR test results. The WHO definition is "A person with laboratory confirmation of Covid-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms"

CFR is case fatality ratio. The ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed PCR test positive cases.

They have been doing a lot of testing hence the increase in PCR positive results. 1 million cases in 20 days, since 26th December . To put that into perspective it took 45 days to reach the previous million cases on 11th November.

www.cebm.net

PCR positives: what do they mean? - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Updated 23 September 2020 Article by: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Artic University of
www.cebm.net www.cebm.net
 
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ChipChop said:
They have been doing a lot of testing hence the increase in PCR positive results. 1 million cases in 20 days, since 26th December . To put that into perspective it took 45 days to reach the previous million cases on 11th November.
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If the number of tests is constantly increasing then the number of positive results will increase. To put that another way as a bigger percentage of all the cases in the community are discovered does that not explain why the CFR is constantly falling.
 
ChipChop said:
Thats a lot of question marks. Do you have a sticky keyboard?

To answer your question cases are positive PCR test results. The WHO definition is "A person with laboratory confirmation of Covid-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms"

CFR is case fatality ratio. The ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed PCR test positive cases.

They have been doing a lot of testing hence the increase in PCR positive results. 1 million cases in 20 days, since 26th December . To put that into perspective it took 45 days to reach the previous million cases on 11th November.

www.cebm.net

PCR positives: what do they mean? - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Updated 23 September 2020 Article by: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Artic University of
www.cebm.net www.cebm.net
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I'm still a bit mystified , what are you trying to point out ..??????? What do you think these figures mean?????
 
190 said:
If the number of tests is constantly increasing then the number of positive results will increase. To put that another way as a bigger percentage of all the cases in the community are discovered does that not explain why the CFR is constantly falling.
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As a "case" is a PCR positive test result and a PCR test cannot differentiate between a live infectious virus and a dead non infectious one the PCR positive "cases" are the wrong metric really. A "case" should be a subject whose viral sample has been cultured to see if they have a live infectious virus. I am guessing most of these would be symptomatic or ill. How many of these people die would be the real CFR statistic. Infection control would be quarantining these people with live infectious cases.

Interesting to note in the University of Cambridge Nowcasting & Forescasting reports they "Note that a substantial proportion of these daily infections will be asymptomatic." Not ill.

MRC Biostatistics Unit

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
 
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ChipChop said:
As a "case" is a PCR positive test result and a PCR test cannot differentiate between a live infectious virus and a dead non infectious one the PCR positive "cases" are the wrong metric really. A "case" should be a subject whose viral sample has been cultured to see if they have a live infectious virus. How many of these people die would be the real CFR statistic. Infection control would be quarantining these people with live infectious cases.
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I accept all of that. The point I wanted to question is whether your list of constantly falling CFR represents things getting better i.e. a smaller % of people dying or is it simply the inevitable result of more testing.
 
190 said:
I accept all of that. The point I wanted to question is whether your list of constantly falling CFR represents things getting better i.e. a smaller % of people dying or is it simply the inevitable result of more testing.
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Like i said it is the wrong metric. Take for example England lockdown number 2 from 5th November to 2nd December. Approx 536,000 cases in that period. CFR dropped from 4.28% to 3.59% in that period. A slow decrease. Compare with the first week in January 2021 347,000 cases CFR dropped 2.92% to 2.72%. Much faster decrease. Looking for patterns.
 
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ChipChop said:
Like i said it is the wrong metric. Take for example England lockdown number 2 from 5th November to 2nd December. Approx 536,000 cases in that period. CFR dropped from 4.28% to 3.59% in that period. A slow decrease. Compare with the first week in January 2021 347,000 cases CFR dropped 2.92% to 2.72%. Much faster decrease.
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OK , so if we accept your logic in the above, what are you trying to say. What are you actually trying to point out. It's quite normal to give a conclusion when you've obviously gone to all the trouble of finding out and posting all the various data , charts and graphs etc. What are you trying to prove , your posts are meaningless without a conclusion. My sticky key has now been fixed , pointless using it as you have yet to answer any relevant questions.
 
Scooby_Doo said:
OK , so if we accept your logic in the above, what are you trying to say. What are you actually trying to point out. It's quite normal to give a conclusion when you've obviously gone to all the trouble of finding out and posting all the various data , charts and graphs etc. What are you trying to prove , your posts are meaningless without a conclusion. My sticky key has now been fixed , pointless using it as you have yet to answer any relevant questions.
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I could care less if you accept my logic. Answer your own questions by looking at the data.
 
The CFR is your statistical probability of dying within 28 days of a positive PCR test result.

CFR is a simple statistical link between two sets of data, it does not in itself offer an explanation, let alone prove a cause-and-effect relationship.

There are various possible explanations as to why the CFR goes down, but no way of knowing for fact. These include better treatments, the virus may have become less lethal, the culling effect (the most vulnerable had it first), etc.

More testing shouldn't in itself cause the CFR to go up or down, however the larger sample size will make the CFR more accurate. So another explanation might be that the CFR was always low, but the number of PCR tests was initially too small to arrive at an accurate figure.

It is also worthy nothing that any increase in unrelated mortalities will also cause the CFR to go up, simply because statistically a proportion of those dying for othed reasons will have COVID-19 (even if they weren't actually ill).
 
ChipChop said:
Like i said it is the wrong metric. Take for example England lockdown number 2 from 5th November to 2nd December. Approx 536,000 cases in that period. CFR dropped from 4.28% to 3.59% in that period. A slow decrease. Compare with the first week in January 2021 347,000 cases CFR dropped 2.92% to 2.72%. Much faster decrease. Looking for patterns.
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There is no connection between lockdowns and CFR.

Lockdowns are meant to reduce the number of deaths by limiting the spread of the virus. But the lockdowns have no effect on the survival rates of those infected.

What can affect the CFR, however, is the sample size. So one possible explanation is that when the number of cases if higher, the CFR becomes more accurate (because of the larger data set).

But again, Lockdowns in themselves are only meant to reduce the absolute number of cases (and subsequent deaths), they are not meant to affect the CFR.

So if your post was hinting at some connection between lockdowns and the CFR, then it's mistaken.
 
markjay said:
So another explanation might be that the CFR was always low, but the number of PCR tests was initially too small to arrive at an accurate figure.
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That amounts to the same thing I was trying to say earlier. The real percentage of the population infected by the virus has always been higher than the positive tests and we have been given estimates by the experts, for example double the positive tests. As testing has been ramped up then positive tests may be representing an increased proportion of those actually infected. If that's the case, then more testing will automatically result in the CFR going down.

Whether testing is accurate or not, more testing will automatically result in a lower CFR. All the false positives are making the look CFR lower than it really is
 
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