Covid-19 Discussion

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Cabriomat said:
Is there a different way other countries class a covid death?
I know there is a lot of talk about the way uk are classing most deaths as covid related even though its not always the cause.
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Quite right. The raw data doesn't tell the full story. That said, even with relevant adjustments, we're still probably somewhere at the top part of the chart.

To my mind, this is probably in part due to the fact that the fast-spreading B.1.1.7 mutation originated in the UK, and other countries will sadly catch-up when this so-called 'British mutation' will spread sufficiently among their own populations.
 
ChipChop said:
You can get an idea by looking at the PHE weekly all cause mortality reports.

7th Jan Week 1 2021 - no statistically significant excess


14th Jan Week 2 2021 -statistically significant excess


Also Euromomo z scores

www.euromomo.eu

Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO

www.euromomo.eu www.euromomo.eu
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The figures on the .gov site I've just looked at wk1 2021, show excess deaths over the 5 year average of 5100 , does that look like "no significant excess "? 5 year average is circa 11000 , so that's 50% more by my calculation.
 
SPX said:
I have my own moral dial, I don’t need to blindly follow whichever mantra is being pumped out by whichever government is in power.

I’m also always wary of individuals motives when so keen to blithely hide behind “the rules” set by others...
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Swotty said:
If only more folk were so rational. Guess we can't save everyone.
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This is a two-chapter book, though....

Not trusting the authorities and disobeying rules laid-down by the government is only one part.

Being rational with choosing alternative behaviours is the second half.

SPX seems to posses both traits. But sadly, too many people posses only the former but not the latter.

In motoring terms.... I would hazard a guess that most members on here would know what a safe speed is, and therefore when they ignore the speed limit, they would carry-out this act of noncompliance in a safe and rational manner.

But at the same time, they will also understand that it would be a bad idea for the government to simply remove the speed limit and allow everyone to decide for themselves of what they think the safe speed is.

The only way to protect the public is by insisting that everyone compiles.
 
markjay said:
This is a two-chapter book, though....

Not trusting the authorities and disobeying rules laid-down by the government is only one part.

Being rational with choosing alternative behaviours is the second half.

SPX seems to posses both traits. But sadly, too many people posses only the former but not the latter.

In motoring terms.... I would hazard a guess that most members on here would know what a safe speed is, and therefore when they ignore the speed limit, they would carry-out this act of noncompliance in a safe and rational manner.

But at the same time, they will also understand that it would be a bad idea for the government to simply remove the speed limit and allow everyone to decide for themselves of what they think the safe speed is.

The only way to protect the public is by insisting that everyone compiles.
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(My bold) So you're an expert on this too? Amazing ... you're an expert on posses, too.

And again you're twisting what has been said on authority ... the issue is trust, not disobedience. :rolleyes:

Your analogies are certainly inventive ... and your deflections and wrongful attributions a constant ....

.... and entertaining, but completely inappropriate.
 
markjay said:
38164238-9159663-image-a-12_1610997079406.jpg
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This would be meaningful IF all countries listed counted CV19 deaths using the same criteria and procedures, and such counting was done with the same degree of accuracy, completeness and thoroughness.

to me, this is yet another pointless international comparison; in the same way as comparisons on numbers of " cases"
 
GeeJayW said:
Interesting roundup...
www.bhf.org.uk

Covid and your heart

Get the latest coronavirus updates from our experts, including what Covid-19 means for you if you have a heart or circulatory condition.
www.bhf.org.uk www.bhf.org.uk
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'But evidence is starting to emerge from clinical trials (the gold standard way of testing a potential treatment) suggesting that there is no benefit of taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19. Results were recently published from a trial in the US and Canada showing that taking hydroxychloroquine could not prevent people who were recently exposed to someone with Covid-19 from getting ill.

In the UK, the team behind the RECOVERY trial (a large trial testing a variety of treatments in people hospitalised with Covid-19) recently announced initial results showing that there was no benefit for people receiving hydroxychloroquine. While this trial is continuing to test other treatments, hydroxychloroquine has now been removed from the trial.'

So according to this article, Hydroxychloroquine is out?
 
markjay said:
'But evidence is starting to emerge from clinical trials (the gold standard way of testing a potential treatment) suggesting that there is no benefit of taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19. Results were recently published from a trial in the US and Canada showing that taking hydroxychloroquine could not prevent people who were recently exposed to someone with Covid-19 from getting ill.

In the UK, the team behind the RECOVERY trial (a large trial testing a variety of treatments in people hospitalised with Covid-19) recently announced initial results showing that there was no benefit for people receiving hydroxychloroquine. While this trial is continuing to test other treatments, hydroxychloroquine has now been removed from the trial.'

So according to this article, Hydroxychloroquine is out?
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Yep, a counter argument to Professor Clancy's article.

Here’s another:
 
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Cabriomat said:
Is there a different way other countries class a covid death?
I know there is a lot of talk about the way uk are classing most deaths as covid related even though its not always the cause.
Click to expand...
I think It’s misleading for anyone to say that most UK deaths are (falsely) recorded as Covid related, although I know that very many people do. With over 660,000 deaths estimated for 2020, the roughly 90,000 attributed to Covid is a major cause but certainly not the cause of the most.
 
knighterrant said:
I think It’s misleading for anyone to say that most UK deaths are (falsely) recorded as Covid related, although I know that very many people do. With over 660,000 deaths estimated for 2020, the roughly 90,000 attributed to Covid is a major cause but certainly not the cause of the most.
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I agree (my emphasis).

What is significant is that the deaths attributed to Covid seem to be displacing deaths from the "usual" causes, and therefore the all-cause mortality figures are lower than they would be if Covid were an additive cause of death. In that sense, it does seem likely that there is at least some degree of cause misattribution. Whether or not that's the case in other countries, or to the same extent in other countries, I do not know. Either way, comparisons of the type posted are a bit like the relationship between the drunk and a lampost: the latter providing more support than illumination.
 
In an effort to discover what people are actually dying from it would be interesting to compare countries carrying out autopsies to those who are not during this health crisis. The UK does not. Germany, Italy and the USA do when required.

www.smithsonianmag.com

Why Autopsies Are Proving Crucial During Covid-19

Advances in medical imaging have reduced the need for the procedure, but it is leading to discoveries that may help with better treatments
www.smithsonianmag.com www.smithsonianmag.com
 
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ChipChop said:
In an effort to discover what people are actually dying from it would be interesting to compare countries carrying out autopsies to those who are not during this health crisis. The UK does not. Germany, Italy and the USA do when required.

www.smithsonianmag.com

Why Autopsies Are Proving Crucial During Covid-19

Advances in medical imaging have reduced the need for the procedure, but it is leading to discoveries that may help with better treatments
www.smithsonianmag.com www.smithsonianmag.com
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It would be interesting to know how many of those who died in other European countries, underwent an autopsy, and were found to not have died of COVID-19, had a positive PCR test result in the 28 days preceeding their death. This could help calibrate the UK data for COVID-19-related deaths.

As for autopsies in the UK... my view is that it's a good idea if it doesn't impact on NHS resources. This article from the Daily Mail provides an insight into the situation at hospitals' mortuaries during the current peak:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hospital mortician breaks down at 'conveyor belt' of dead bodies

Hannah Leahy, who has handled hundreds of deceased Covid patients, broke down in tears as she spoke to the BBC about the devastating impact the pandemic has had on her and her five-strong team.
www.dailymail.co.uk
 
markjay said:
As for autopsies in the UK... my view is that it's a good idea if it doesn't impact on NHS resources. This article from the Daily Mail provides an insight into the situation at hospitals' mortuaries during the current peak:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hospital mortician breaks down at 'conveyor belt' of dead bodies

Hannah Leahy, who has handled hundreds of deceased Covid patients, broke down in tears as she spoke to the BBC about the devastating impact the pandemic has had on her and her five-strong team.
www.dailymail.co.uk
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A mortician is not a pathologist.
 
ChipChop said:
A mortician is not a pathologist.
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Of course not. My point was that given the workload in hospitals' mortuaries, in might be difficult for the NHS to manage and carry-out an autopsy for each and every person. I thought it was obvious, apologies if I didn't elaborate.
 
markjay said:
It would be interesting to know how many of those who died in other European countries, underwent an autopsy, and were found to not have died of COVID-19, had a positive PCR test result in the 28 days preceeding their death. This could help calibrate the UK data for COVID-19-related deaths.

As for autopsies in the UK... my view is that it's a good idea if it doesn't impact on NHS resources. This article from the Daily Mail provides an insight into the situation at a hospital's mortuary during the current peak:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hospital mortician breaks down at 'conveyor belt' of dead bodies

Hannah Leahy, who has handled hundreds of deceased Covid patients, broke down in tears as she spoke to the BBC about the devastating impact the pandemic has had on her and her five-strong team.
www.dailymail.co.uk
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FTFY
 
Getting vaccine on Saturday, as a clinically extremely vulnerable person. Actually explained to a nurse today that that was what CEV means.

Anyone interested can download a document used in the health service by searching: Greenbook 14a covid 19. It makes very interesting reading.
 
ChrisEdu said:
Getting vaccine on Saturday, as a clinically extremely vulnerable person. Actually explained to a nurse today that that was what CEV means.

Anyone interested can download a document used in the health service by searching: Greenbook 14a covid 19. It makes very interesting reading.
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I got a text from ScotGov yesterday advising me that my shielding status means I will be due for my vaccination by mid February......
 
PhantomF4 said:
I got a text from ScotGov yesterday advising me that my shielding status means I will be due for my vaccination by mid February......
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I was concerned I might not be able to getvit, as a) I'm immunosuppressed and b) I'm an Epipen user due to severe allergic reactions.
 
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