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So in order to assess the threat posed by Covid-19 in a meaningful way we need case and we need fatality numbers and the further apart those two lines on a CFR graph are the less chance the "infected" have of dying.Which is why I said that CFR is actually much more relevant to the public, because it simply shows a statical correlation that does not involve any theory or assumptions. It is very accurate in respect of assessing the probability.
Nothing to see here ......
So in order to assess the threat posed by Covid-19 in a meaningful way we need case and we need fatality numbers and the further apart those two lines on a CFR graph are the less chance the "infected" have of dying.
Since we are told cases have gone up significantly in the last 2 weeks or so and deaths have not risen significantly those two lines of the CFR graph are moving even further apart during September. Even less chance of dying if infected.
The complete opposite to what we are being told rising cases/ infections means at this point in time.
Your point of the active young (assuming they are live infectious) eventually at some point infecting the old brings into focus so what are the Government/ NHS doing to protect the known at risk groups?
70+ years old with 2 or more comorbidities. Who represent 95% of all deaths.
Protect them, and i do not mean by shutting down society as a whole.
I would suggest this winter the government should pay all heating gas & electricity bills for anyone on a pension in the UK.
Keeping the elderly warm WILL prevent deaths.
So rising infection rates not being matched by death rates now in September mean less chance of dying if infected.1. The 'chances of dying if infected' - IFR- isn't really a useful figure for the public, because there are several assumptions made in the process of estimating the total number of people infected at any given point of time, and so - like the various models - the IFR figure is part-speculative.
And, more importantly, it says nothing to you as an individual. If you did not have a postive test, you don't know if you are infected, so you will have no idea what your risk factor is (or, in other words, you'll need to multiply the IFR by your chances of being infected based on your region and age group etc.... which makes things even more complicated). And, once you had a positive test, you still don't know if you are actually infected - due to the possibility of false positive - and therfore actually fall in the IFR risk group (or you'll need to factor-in the test accuracy..... etc). So the IFR is really meaningless outside the realm of medical research.
A narrowing or widening gap between IFR and CFR will more likely reflect changes in external factors rather than in the actual behaviour of the virus.
2. The delta between IFR and CFR is mainly a reflection of our testing methodology, and it is not related to the behaviour of the virus. As an example, if we only test people with active symptoms, then our knowledge of the infection rate in the population will be very low, and we'll need to give greater weight to the assumptions we make regarding the level of asymptomatic infection in the population at large. If, on the other hand, we regularly test random samples of the populatuon then the larger the sample the more accurate our estimate of the actual infection rate. And, the accuracy of the test used will have a direct impact on the accuracy of IFR. The CFR is dependent on the behaviour of the virus, the treatments, the way we classify infection-related death, and the accuracy of tbe test.
3. The government is already giving elderly people a Winter Fuel Payment.
So not really worth posting.
This is barrel scraping.
What do you think the end game could be Swotty?Thanks - that's kinda the direction I was going in.
Apparently these tests not only produce a significant number of false positives, they also count any trace of covid presence, including vestiges of dead cells where the virus was present but is no longer.
In other words, it is a means to an end ... and I'm worried about what the end game is.
What do you think the end game could be Swotty?
What do you think the end game could be Swotty?
DNA harvesting and Mass Genocide ?
I agree Brexit will not happen and to be fair it is small fry considering what else is now going on. By that i mean democracy has already been stopped by the Coronavirus Act 2020. Which has just been set in stone again for the next 6 months. Defying the will of people on Brexit will be easier because of this.The population is being locked down for a reason. The figures do not stack up, as evidenced by other academics and statisticians.
So what is Boris' strategy? I suspect he will cave in on Brexit, although I fervently hope he does not. However those opposed to us leaving are ramping up the pressure on him. There is also the outcome of the US elections to factor in.
Brexit and Trump present significant obstacles to the New World Order project. Both are in danger of being overcome and then ID2020 and Agenda 2030 can progress. Look up Rockefeller and "Lock Step".
I guess a career working for politicians has left me suspicious of those in power's real motives.
What's your take?
and will in future be using hospitalisation numbers as their key metric.
Why is this not headline news?Confirmed on live tv by the government, 93% of the covid tests are wrong, only 7% are accurate enough to be relied on. Also, the former chief science officer of Pfizer says the "2nd wave" is based on false-positive data.
Why is this not headline news?
The 6178 PCR test cases / infections used to justify government policy are in fact only 433 cases based on this false positive rate.
Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers
Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.www.bbc.co.uk
Another theory i have read about is that all the obviously ridiculous contrived measures are being allowed to take place to make the public rebel. Problem reaction solution. National Governments fall because of this to be replaced by a one world government.
Pretty sure that is a done thing, we are out.I agree Brexit will not happen
I meant a BRexit In Name Only. The worst deal in history. Agreeing to a level playing field.Pretty sure that is a done thing, we are out.
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