Covid-19 Discussion

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The R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is anything between 2.0 and 6.6, compared to 1.3 for seasonal Flu. And, being exponential, even a low R0 of just 2 is still significantly higher than 1.3.

R0 is useful for handling the inituial risk and getting a rough measure of progress - and making the initial decision to take (expensive) action.

But strategically is it of any use thereafter? When outbreaks are localised we need to know and undersand the circumstances. The government has been very coy initially about Leicester. There are other local outbreaks only reported locally - really we need to understand the details of these so that the risks and the appropriate responses are better understood.

The mortality rate is also higher:
I appreciate that COVID-19 mortality has proven to be an illusive metric, and so the suggested '7 times higher' is quite speculative, but even-so the majority of research into COVID-19 mortality rates so far suggest that it is considerably higher than flu.

I think there is also a question as to whether the mortality rate is dropping - not just because of more less aggressive strains but also the evolution of better treatment.
 
R0 is useful for handling the inituial risk and getting a rough measure of progress - and making the initial decision to take (expensive) action.

But strategically is it of any use thereafter? When outbreaks are localised we need to know and undersand the circumstances. The government has been very coy initially about Leicester. There are other local outbreaks only reported locally - really we need to understand the details of these so that the risks and the appropriate responses are better understood.



I think there is also a question as to whether the mortality rate is dropping - not just because of more less aggressive strains but also the evolution of better treatment.

Agree with all of the above.

My own post highlighted the differences between COVID-19 and the seasonal flu - in response to previous post that alluded to the notion that we should not be treating COVID-19 any different to how we do with seasonal flu.
 
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My own post highlighted the differences between COVID-019 and the seasonal flu -

speaking of 'flu

I wonder if we'll see other viruses like 'flu and colds evolving because of the counter-measures taken to block the progress of Covid-19.
 
speaking of 'flu

I wonder if we'll see other viruses like 'flu and colds evolving because of the counter-measures taken to block the progress of Covid-19.

See previous posts #2772, and #2776 ;)
 
I wonder if we'll see other viruses like 'flu and colds evolving because of the counter-measures taken to block the progress of Covid-19.
Over the short run I suspect that many people will suffer less colds (and perhaps 'flu) due to improved hygiene and changed social interactions.

However, over the long term it's been postulated that a lack of regular exposure to a range of viruses, and the attendant lowering of natural co-immunity response, will leave the global population more vulnerable to a seasonal 'flu outbreak turning into a pandemic as it will have an unusually large proportion of susceptible hosts to infect. In recognition of this, I can foresee that this year's 'flu vaccination being extended to encourage more of the UK population to take it up "to protect the NHS" will become the norm for the future around the globe. That should get the anti-vaxxer tin-foil hat brigade foaming at the mouth...
 
Over the short run I suspect that many people will suffer less colds (and perhaps 'flu) due to improved hygiene and changed social interactions.

However, over the long term it's been postulated that a lack of regular exposure to a range of viruses, and the attendant lowering of natural co-immunity response, will leave the global population more vulnerable to a seasonal 'flu outbreak turning into a pandemic as it will have an unusually large proportion of susceptible hosts to infect. In recognition of this, I can foresee that this year's 'flu vaccination being extended to encourage more of the UK population to take it up "to protect the NHS" will become the norm for the future around the globe. That should get the anti-vaxxer tin-foil hat brigade foaming at the mouth...

(My emphasis)

Strategically Boris and Cummings have made the Tories the party of the NHS, so they cannot afford to see the debacle of 2 years ago repeated this winter season.
 
In recognition of this, I can foresee that this year's 'flu vaccination being extended to encourage more of the UK population to take it up


I didn't read the story but it looks like Boris is encouraged to go on a diet

 
Apologies if this has been posted previously and I missed it, but I've been interested to discover the UK's new 'Beta' COVID stats dashboard, now with hospital admissions and inpatient detail: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK. There is today a grand total of 104 people in ventilator beds (though it's good to know that we now have 29,800 available: Boris Johnson statement fact-checked).

As mentioned by others in earlier posts, given that testing data is not comparable over time, due in part to the limited availability at the start of lockdown, hospital admissions data is likely a more accurate indicator of the severity of the virus at any given time. Numbers in hospital are now very low, with new admissions at ~150 per day (though that data lags by a couple of weeks). At no point has the number in hospital risen, it's only been a downward trend, despite an increase in daily cases this month. This should be good news, but is not something that has been picked up in the media as far as I have seen.

Other data that would be interesting to know would be average time spent in hospital (to show if treatment is getting more effective) and geographic distribution of COVID inpatients (this exists and has been alluded to in the press, but does not appear to be in the public domain).
 
This should be good news, but is not something that has been picked up in the media as far as I have seen.
The cynical amongst us would say that the first part of that statement and the second are linked by a general desire amongst the media to follow a particular narrative and paint a particular picture.

It's a bit like the positive news that the UK is now carrying out more testing than any other country in Europe. But that doesn't fit the narrative, either.
 
While the number of "ventilator beds " is impressive at 29,800 I'll wager that's the hardware- for full effective operation you need the software= trained staff and this is likely to prove the limiting factor to true capacity.
The goalposts are being changed as we speak
 
Numbers in hospital are now very low, with new admissions at ~150 per day (though that data lags by a couple of weeks). At no point has the number in hospital risen, it's only been a downward trend, despite an increase in daily cases this month. This should be good news, but is not something that has been picked up in the media as far as I have seen.

the relentless focus on number of cases, spikes and shutdowns of this pub or that meat processing factory merely continues and stokes the hysteria and scares some members of the public into wearing masks while driving their own cars alone ...

media coverage is so OTT on fear, fear and more fear. Soon the public will get bored and the media might focus more on Harry and Meghan. Not at all sure that would be an improvement 😂
 
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media coverage is so OTT on fear, fear and more fear
Yes, it's a shame, but true. I'd expected the Telegraph at least to find some positives to trumpet the government's success, given its very pro-Boris stance, but have not seen it there either (unless hidden behind their paywall).
 
When this is all over.... we'll be back to Harry and Meghan again.... :oops:o_O😢😭
 
why are cats being tested?

is there really so much spare testing capacity?
 
why are cats being tested?

is there really so much spare testing capacity?

Guess so.
Pussy must self isolate, unless it doesn't really want to as that might make pussy less happy.

"There is no evidence that pussy can pass the virus to humans". But some how in China bats did. So why test the flippin' mog?
Then the meat handling factories that by total coincidence have a higher instance with their workers of course don't demonstrate animals can carry and pass on.

I don't say what is right and not right, just that the discrepancies can lead to a lack of trust in credibility.

I guess track and trace of who has been stroking who's pussy isn't feasible.
 
why are cats being tested?

is there really so much spare testing capacity?
:rolleyes:

According to the press release from HMG:

“The pet cat was initially diagnosed by a private vet with feline herpes virus, a common cat respiratory infection, but the sample was also tested for SARS-CoV-2 as part of a research programme. Follow-up samples tested at the APHA laboratory in Weybridge confirmed the cat was also co-infected with SARS-CoV2 which is the virus known to cause COVID-19 in humans.”
 
Here is one for the conspiracy theorists and something that needs explaining to me;)

Open Google search on your PC or phone and type any three figure number you choose and "new cases" after that number.
Then click enter and see what comes up.

Spooky:D

Then go back and change that number and see what shows for that search.

Now a conspiracy theorist might say Bill Gates and Google are in cohorts to show Covid infections figures can be anything you want them to be.
Someone far more switched on than me can probably explain this.
 
Here is one for the conspiracy theorists and something that needs explaining to me;)

Open Google search on your PC or phone and type any three figure number you choose and "new cases" after that number.
Then click enter and see what comes up.

Spooky:D

Then go back and change that number and see what shows for that search.

Now a conspiracy theorist might say Bill Gates and Google are in cohorts to show Covid infections figures can be anything you want them to be.
Someone far more switched on than me can probably explain this.

 
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