Covid-19 Discussion

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So no-one has lost their jobs or businesses as the result of the first lockdown and no-one will lose their jobs or businesses as the result of the second and subsequent waves of lockdown? The longer these lockdowns go one, the more folk are put out of work. Eventually, some economies will be unable to recover.

Is unemployment really lower? What do you mean by previous peaks?

I think it would be factually incorrect to apportion all COVID-19 job losses to the lockdowns.

I remember very well that long before any measures were implemented by the government, people started applying their own measures.

We were very busy getting offices converted to remote working as of early February, because people were concerned about using public transport and attending crowded offices. Come the March lockdiwn, all of our customers were working remotely already, and their offices closed. Retail suffered badly, and hotels and airlines were struggling, as were restaurants, well before the March lockdown.

Of course the lockdown brought about more job losses, but this came on top of the massive job losses that were - and will be - caused anyway simply because the public changed their habits due to the pandemic.

In addition many of the permanent job losses have nothing to do with the lockdown. All those coffee shops, takeways, and pubs in business areas have gone because companies are not planning on reopening their offices any time soon (which most companies closed well before the lockdown anyway), as are all those auxiliary jobs such as office cleaners, security, maintenance, etc.

So did the lockdowns make a bad situation worse (in terms of current and future unemployment)? Most certainly yes.

But it would be incorrect to suggest that if the government had done nothing, there would be no job losses, or to blame all job losses on the lockdowns.
 
Was on the phone to a friend of mine earlier. Both he and his wife recently tested positive for Covid after their son stopped overnight and became unwell the following day . Both are in their late sixties , a bit overweight ( like myself) , and had general fatigue, cough and headache, bit short of breath. They are feeling better , around twelve days on from initial symptoms , and other than being a bit lethargic appear to be almost fully recovered. Apart from three older people I knew that died with , rather than from, Covid, they are the only people I know that have tested positive.
 
I think it would be factually incorrect to apportion all COVID-19 job losses to the lockdowns.

I remember very well that long before any measures were implemented by the government, people started applying their own measures.

We were very busy getting offices converted to remote working as of early February, because people were concerned about using public transport and attending crowded offices. Come the March lockdiwn, all of our customers were working remotely already, and their offices closed. Retail suffered badly, and hotels and airlines were struggling, as were restaurants, well before the March lockdown.

Of course the lockdown brought about more job losses, but this came on top of the massive job losses that were - and will be - caused anyway simply because the public changed their habits due to the pandemic.

In addition many of the permanent job losses have nothing to do with the lockdown. All those coffee shops, takeways, and pubs in business areas have gone because companies are not planning on reopening their offices any time soon (which most companies closed well before the lockdown anyway), as are all those auxiliary jobs such as office cleaners, security, maintenance, etc.

So did the lockdowns make a bad situation worse (in terms of current and future unemployment)? Most certainly yes.

But it would be incorrect to suggest that if the government had done nothing, there would be no job losses, or to blame all job losses on the lockdowns.
The pandemic has without doubt cost a great many jobs and caused much hardship. But to look at the long term I think we have to take a view on changes that have taken place in ( certainly my ) living memory . In the 60`s I worked at a tobacco factory in Bristol that employed thousands of people , long since closed. In the 70`s I worked for a distributor of bearings and power transmission products , calling on industries in the South West and South Wales. The next companies or industries I am going to mention are either gone or vastly reduced in numbers employed :- St.Annes board mills , St.Regis paper mills , Printing and packaging ( employing hundreds in Bristol alone), Blue Circle cement ( now mainly imported) , British Steel LLanwern and Port Talbot , Strachan & Henshaw ,(Machine manufacturers) , numerous automotive parts manufacturers , Food producers and packers, concrete block plants , shipyards, British Aerospace, Rolls Royce , Bristol cars, COOP butter factory , ICI Fertilisers, ICI Fibres, Fisons , RTZ ( previously Commonwealth Zinc Smelting) , dozens of small , medium and large engineering companies/batch producers ., Lansing Bagnall fork trucks, Flour mills , animal feed mills, carbon black manufacturers, tyre manufacturers, Stothert & Pitt ( manufacturers of large cranes) , and numerous others. Today UK PLC is in a vastly different format and needs to get back to "Made in Britain"
Try selling , for instance to a German owned UK assembly plant - they would prefer to buy their components from Germany even if you can offer a better price . However , my main point is that we have been through many transitions and will now , through circumstance , undergo further changes , and need to become more introspective ( if thats the correct term! ) , bearing in mind that the whole world has been more or less affected.
 
People are not commodities and cannot be 'ordered' to change employment, retrain, and possibly also move to a different part of the country.
Those with any sense will be prepared to do all those things in order to get jobs. I did when times were apparently much better than now. I wasn’t ordered to do it.
 
The pandemic has without doubt cost a great many jobs and caused much hardship. But to look at the long term I think we have to take a view on changes that have taken place in ( certainly my ) living memory . In the 60`s I worked at a tobacco factory in Bristol that employed thousands of people , long since closed. In the 70`s I worked for a distributor of bearings and power transmission products , calling on industries in the South West and South Wales. The next companies or industries I am going to mention are either gone or vastly reduced in numbers employed :- St.Annes board mills , St.Regis paper mills , Printing and packaging ( employing hundreds in Bristol alone), Blue Circle cement ( now mainly imported) , British Steel LLanwern and Port Talbot , Strachan & Henshaw ,(Machine manufacturers) , numerous automotive parts manufacturers , Food producers and packers, concrete block plants , shipyards, British Aerospace, Rolls Royce , Bristol cars, COOP butter factory , ICI Fertilisers, ICI Fibres, Fisons , RTZ ( previously Commonwealth Zinc Smelting) , dozens of small , medium and large engineering companies/batch producers ., Lansing Bagnall fork trucks, Flour mills , animal feed mills, carbon black manufacturers, tyre manufacturers, Stothert & Pitt ( manufacturers of large cranes) , and numerous others. Today UK PLC is in a vastly different format and needs to get back to "Made in Britain"
Try selling , for instance to a German owned UK assembly plant - they would prefer to buy their components from Germany even if you can offer a better price . However , my main point is that we have been through many transitions and will now , through circumstance , undergo further changes , and need to become more introspective ( if thats the correct term! ) , bearing in mind that the whole world has been more or less affected.
As an addition to the list of companies with less employees now through no fault of COVID-19, I worked for BT (and its previous incarnations) along with over 200,000 others. The BT Group that has spread worldwide now employs just over 100,000. Things change for a multitude of reasons; the main ones to suffer are those who aren’t willing to accept change.
 
It is revealing that the large financial services firms, who keep a very close eye on the economy and stock markets,and who have a history of moving hard and fast,have not yet made any large job cuts. Indeed some firms are still recruiting to deal with the uptake in the savings rates.
 
The pandemic has without doubt cost a great many jobs and caused much hardship. But to look at the long term I think we have to take a view on changes that have taken place in ( certainly my ) living memory . In the 60`s I worked at a tobacco factory in Bristol that employed thousands of people , long since closed. In the 70`s I worked for a distributor of bearings and power transmission products , calling on industries in the South West and South Wales. The next companies or industries I am going to mention are either gone or vastly reduced in numbers employed :- St.Annes board mills , St.Regis paper mills , Printing and packaging ( employing hundreds in Bristol alone), Blue Circle cement ( now mainly imported) , British Steel LLanwern and Port Talbot , Strachan & Henshaw ,(Machine manufacturers) , numerous automotive parts manufacturers , Food producers and packers, concrete block plants , shipyards, British Aerospace, Rolls Royce , Bristol cars, COOP butter factory , ICI Fertilisers, ICI Fibres, Fisons , RTZ ( previously Commonwealth Zinc Smelting) , dozens of small , medium and large engineering companies/batch producers ., Lansing Bagnall fork trucks, Flour mills , animal feed mills, carbon black manufacturers, tyre manufacturers, Stothert & Pitt ( manufacturers of large cranes) , and numerous others. Today UK PLC is in a vastly different format and needs to get back to "Made in Britain"
Try selling , for instance to a German owned UK assembly plant - they would prefer to buy their components from Germany even if you can offer a better price . However , my main point is that we have been through many transitions and will now , through circumstance , undergo further changes , and need to become more introspective ( if thats the correct term! ) , bearing in mind that the whole world has been more or less affected.

You mention Sothert and Pitt in Bath
Brought Ransome Rapier of Ipswich to mind

The demise of both, the work of one Mr R Maxwell . . . . . . . . . . .
 
The pandemic has without doubt cost a great many jobs and caused much hardship. But to look at the long term I think we have to take a view on changes that have taken place in ( certainly my ) living memory . In the 60`s I worked at a tobacco factory in Bristol that employed thousands of people , long since closed. In the 70`s I worked for a distributor of bearings and power transmission products , calling on industries in the South West and South Wales. The next companies or industries I am going to mention are either gone or vastly reduced in numbers employed :- St.Annes board mills , St.Regis paper mills , Printing and packaging ( employing hundreds in Bristol alone), Blue Circle cement ( now mainly imported) , British Steel LLanwern and Port Talbot , Strachan & Henshaw ,(Machine manufacturers) , numerous automotive parts manufacturers , Food producers and packers, concrete block plants , shipyards, British Aerospace, Rolls Royce , Bristol cars, COOP butter factory , ICI Fertilisers, ICI Fibres, Fisons , RTZ ( previously Commonwealth Zinc Smelting) , dozens of small , medium and large engineering companies/batch producers ., Lansing Bagnall fork trucks, Flour mills , animal feed mills, carbon black manufacturers, tyre manufacturers, Stothert & Pitt ( manufacturers of large cranes) , and numerous others. Today UK PLC is in a vastly different format and needs to get back to "Made in Britain"
Try selling , for instance to a German owned UK assembly plant - they would prefer to buy their components from Germany even if you can offer a better price . However , my main point is that we have been through many transitions and will now , through circumstance , undergo further changes , and need to become more introspective ( if thats the correct term! ) , bearing in mind that the whole world has been more or less affected.

Sadly your experience reflects the change from a "productive" economy to a "consumptive" economy. A reset, to self sufficiency, is long over due imo
 
It's really a list of mature manufacturing processes which many other countries can easily do with cheaper labour. Any future for UK manufacturing has to involve innovation that is harder for others to copy and the innovation has to be a continuous.

As an example I started work 50 years ago at the chemical giant ICI which was a wonderful company and the bell weather of the UK stockmarket. Now long since gone but a very small part of it was spun off as the pharmaceutical company Zeneca which survived and prospered through innovation. Even Zeneca had to change, you can't make money in the UK producing asprins or other generic products. There has to be a continuous supply of new high tech drugs otherwise they too will eventually go under
 
I think that the COVID-19 job situation can be classed in one of three categories:

- Jobs that were lost or gained directly due to changes in public behaviour in response to COVID-19. The airline industry is an example of such job losses, because people are worried about being crammed into plains and the level of business that airlines had pre-COVID won't come back any time soon. An example of jobs gained is courier drivers.

- Additional jobs lost or gained specifically due to government polices. Examples are pubs and breweries on one hand, and 'COVID Marshalls' on the other.

- But the most interesting category is jobs lost or gained where COVID-19 was simply a catalyst in what was an inevitable change that was due to happen sooner or later. Home working is a good example. We knew that with public transport running at 140% capacity at rush hour and the roads blocked with congestion, getting more and more people to go to work in city centres every day was not sustainable. The job losses are in the coffee shops and takeaways in business areas, as well as building maintenance staff etc. The jobs gained are in the IT industry and other services to home workers.

In conclusion, I think that when looking back at this part of our economic history, 2020 and 2021 will be remembered as a period of brief recession, but mostly as a period of great and rapid changes in our working habits and job market.
 
This means that the city of Wuhan (and possibly the Hubei province) have 'developed a level of natural antibodies or herd immunity'.

The rest of China was never exposed to the virus hence no immunity has been developed or needed.
The Chinese have successfully allowed community transmission and this has resulted in a level of immunity within their society. There is no vaccine so there is no other explanation. A level of immunity which must have reached the herd immunity threshold as they have now re opened their society and have a rapidly improving economy. No epidemic of "cases" for them unlike European countries.

What puzzles me is the World Health organisation condemns herd immunity as an "immoral" response as to this pandemic. WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus said such an approach was "scientifically and ethically problematic". But China have just done it successfully.

Why are European countries not allowed to persue the same successful course of action resulting in community transmission and the resulting level of community immunity in the way China did?

 
...Why are European countries not allowed to persue the same successful course of action resulting in community transmission and the resulting level of community immunity in the way China did?

Setting aside the fact that China did not achieve herd immunity for its 1.4bn population, nor have they ever claimed to have done this...

The answer to your question is that there are very many things that China (and Russia, and Iran, and North Korea, and other countries) have done, that Western democracies either can't do and won't do.

As an example... your have voiced your displeasure at having to wear a facemask in shops, and said that you wear exempt yourself.

How would you feel about not only being forced to wear a mask with no exemptions, but also forced to stay locked indoors at all times, and being dragged away from your home by soldiers and placed in forced detention in a Nightingale hospital if you developed a cough or fever - would this have worked for you? If your answer is 'No', then you have answered your own question.
 
Setting aside the fact that China did not achieve herd immunity for its 1.4bn population, nor have they ever claimed to have done this...

The answer to your question is that there are very many things that China (and Russia, and Iran, and North Korea, and other countries) have done, that Western democracies either can't do and won't do.

As an example... your have voiced your displeasure at having to wear a facemask in shops, and said that you wear exempt yourself.

How would you feel about not only being forced to wear a mask with no exemptions, but also forced to stay locked indoors at all times, and being dragged away from your home by soldiers and placed in forced detention in a Nightingale hospital if you developed a cough or fever - would this have worked for you? If your answer is 'No', then you have answered your own question.

Agree - there is absolutely no evidence the Chinese have developed "herd immunity".
Last time i checked it was quite large country with a geographically diverse population and limited mobility....

Any one care to guesstimate the real rates of infection and death in China?
 
Setting aside the fact that China did not achieve herd immunity for its 1.4bn population, nor have they ever claimed to have done this...
No one really cares what China claim to have or not have done in regards to this virus. The fact is without a mass vaccination programme in place the only way to do what they have done (open society back up allowing industry to once again operate resulting in economic growth) is to allow community transmission which leads to infection, which leads to recovery, which leads to an immune response, which leads to antibodies, which leads to immunity within the general population.

In effect the Chinese have implemented a version of the Great Barrington Declaration. They have allowed transmission within the community and as a result immunity has developed. The Chinese version of targeted protection for the known at risk demographic may well be draconian in nature whereas a Western approach would not be in that it would involve choice. Presently of course the UK government offer no protection at all for those at risk of death from Covid-19.

So we have a choice. Continue with the epidemic of cases. Lockdown local areas. The death rates will rise because lockdowns have proven to kill people (home deaths) and seasonal pathogens also kill people at this time of year. Or follow a path that leads to immunity and a way out of this mess long term.
 
I find this thread really interesting, and it's not really the subject matter. What I find much more interesting is why the views shared are often polar opposites, and why there is very strong affinity to those polarised views and the people who share them. This has led to a sense of opposing "sides" which I've never seen to such a degree on a web forum, which is what has piqued my interest.

I've typed the words "genuine question" or "genuinely interested" a few times, because I don't want people with an opposing view to instantly dismiss my questions or comments as making points as part of the debate. I really am asking questions to understand the topics and why people hold such strong views - by definition there must be a very good reason behind a strong view.

I've reflected on it for some time, and I thought that openly sharing my thoughts might both further my understanding of the topics and enable conversation which is a little deeper than posting graphs and links to videos. If nothing else, it might mean that I no longer need to type "genuine question" again :)

I believe there are two different types of posts on this thread:

1. Effect: The reality of COVID-19, the impact that it's had so far - or might have in future - and how "we" as individuals, society, UK Government, or as a human race should make decisions to reduce the impact. Whilst there are many opposing views, I suspect that most contributors - most of the time - understand the opposing view and rationale - regardless of whether they agree with it or not. Typically this has an element of fact which is interpreted differently, and is usually attributable to an individuals beliefs on...

2. Cause: The motives of individuals and/or organisations which led to the emergence of COVID-19 and/or subsequent decisions made in response to the emergence of COVID-19. Again there are many opposing views, however this is often based upon beliefs rather than fact or evidence, and these can be difficult to understand for those who don't share that belief, and difficult to articulate for those who believe (without posting links to other people who believe). This applies to both viewpoints.

Type 1 (Effect) is the basis for debate, and enables an ongoing back-and-forth conversation.

Type 2 (Cause) is the one which I find most intriguing of all. It's the one which is most likely to get personal, as humans tend not to like having their beliefs challenged, and so a straightforward comment from a different perspective can escalate. It's also difficult to articulate, because it's seldom based upon objective fact, and more likely to be how an individual makes sense of their own context, and/or is influenced by others who are trusted due to existing relationships or because or perceived credibility.

And I think that Type 2 (Cause) posts are what makes this thread what it is. It's difficult to convince someone of an opposing belief, because I suspect that it really comes down to context, trust and influence. However I believe that it's possibly the personal context which is the basis of someone's belief or the trigger for a change in beliefs.

For those open to non-mainstream thinking, if they're in a challenging or adverse situation (context), which is difficult to explain or accept with mainstream thinking, and someone makes statements which offer an alternative explanation (influence), then context and influence lead to trust, and someone's believe system is changed. I say trust, because on the topics covered in this thread trust is a relative concept, it's a distrust of the traditional or motives of others which can lead to relative trust in an alternative viewpoint.

It's difficult for those open to mainstream thinking to be converted without that challenging or adverse situation to provide the context which acts as a trigger, because they already have trust in the people and organisations around them, and that has been influenced by the general population and by friends and families in their formative years. Ironically the opposing non-mainstream view is not trusted - whether consciously or sub-consciously, making it even more difficult to understand the opposing view.

These are just my own thoughts and observations, based upon reflections of my own situation and that of people who I know in real life, and applying to make sense of the dynamics in this thread. I would genuinely be interested (and that's last time I intend to write it in this thread!) what others believe about why this thread is so unusual, or on the validity of what I've shared.

Vive la difference.
 
As an addition to the list of companies with less employees now through no fault of COVID-19, I worked for BT (and its previous incarnations) along with over 200,000 others. The BT Group that has spread worldwide now employs just over 100,000. Things change for a multitude of reasons; the main ones to suffer are those who aren’t willing to accept change.
And the current economic situation - and the rapid change in ways of working - combined with changes to society's expectations, is already acting as a catalyst to accelerate what would have happened anyway over a much longer time frame - a great example is the reduction in employees, another is the pendulum swing from extensively working in offices to extensively working from home.

Necessity tends to be the catalyst for accelerating the biggest changes. We've had the ability for office workers to extensively work from home for many years, but for whatever reason few companies have actively pursued it at scale - whether they had the capability already or not, because expectations take time to change without a catalyst.
 
The Chinese have successfully allowed community transmission and this has resulted in a level of immunity within their society. There is no vaccine so there is no other explanation. A level of immunity which must have reached the herd immunity threshold as they have now re opened their society and have a rapidly improving economy. No epidemic of "cases" for them unlike European countries.

What puzzles me is the World Health organisation condemns herd immunity as an "immoral" response as to this pandemic. WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus said such an approach was "scientifically and ethically problematic". But China have just done it successfully.
Do you know that, or are you assuming it because you don't accept the alternative view? That being China took swift, sharp - and dare I say it - harsh action to contain the outbreak and prevent it's spread until hosts within the contained area were immune (or perished).

That doesn't seem unbelievable to me. I would expect them to act in the interests of China and the greater good, rather than a relatively small part of their population.

To achieve immunity through natural means across such a vast country seems unlikely.

My conclusion is that we only know what has been allowed by the Chinese Government. Not a criticism of their policy, just an observation that they have a history of managing carefully the flow of information in/out of the country, and within the country too.
 
No one really cares what China claim to have or not have done in regards to this virus. The fact is without a mass vaccination programme in place the only way to do what they have done (open society back up allowing industry to once again operate resulting in economic growth) is to allow community transmission which leads to infection, which leads to recovery, which leads to an immune response, which leads to antibodies, which leads to immunity within the general population.

In effect the Chinese have implemented a version of the Great Barrington Declaration. They have allowed transmission within the community and as a result immunity has developed. The Chinese version of targeted protection for the known at risk demographic may well be draconian in nature whereas a Western approach would not be in that it would involve choice. Presently of course the UK government offer no protection at all for those at risk of death from Covid-19.

So we have a choice. Continue with the epidemic of cases. Lockdown local areas. The death rates will rise because lockdowns have proven to kill people (home deaths) and seasonal pathogens also kill people at this time of year. Or follow a path that leads to immunity and a way out of this mess long term.

I don’t follow...

If China never claimed to have achieved herd immunity.

And the WHO never said that China achieved herd immunity.

And in fact no one seems to suggest that China has achieved herd immunity.

.....so we we talking about Chinese herd immunity?

Or did I miss a turn in the discussion and got lost?

What are we talking about at the moment?
 
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