Covid-19 Discussion

[Deleted member 150136]

So from the charts and what you say, there really isn't an issue with this coronavirus?

Those are very very small figures for the whole of the UK.

 

[markjay]

So from the charts and what you say, there really isn't an issue with this coronavirus?

Those are very very small figures for the whole of the UK.

The graphs show an upward incline in Coronavirus infectious, admissions, and deaths.

The idea behind lockdowns and other measure is that we should try an reverse the trend before it peaks, not after.

The dilemma is when to implement the measures. On one side you want to wait and be sure there's indeed a start of a second wave, on the other hand you don't want to leave for too long and implement it too late - keeping in mind that deaths usually follow 4-6 weeks after infection.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

Just to put my simple twopenneth in,
I've been reading this thread with interest, mumbo jumbo most of it is to me.

But from my real world experience of this is as follows.

Since March I was travelling backwards and forwards to Sweden with their open regulations, then I moved on to Norway which is only ever so slightly tighter(I'm in Norway now).
I've travelled through numerous airports in the UK and Europe/Scandinavia, hired cars, been shopping,sightseeing, work, all without a mask(before airplanes were mandatory).
I work with people from Germany,Denmark,Sweden,Norway,Poland,Romania, and numerous others. These people have been on different projects throughout the world, as far flung as Australia,America and Russia in these time, working with numerous other people from numerous countries and companies, though world wide airports, a total mishmash of people and places.

We all get tested when we arrive in New countries/sites.

There has been NOT ONE positive test result in any site from any company throughout all this.

I feel that my kind of work and my kind of travel opens me up to be susceptible to this virus(along with all my colleagues) I find it difficult to accept that none of us have contracted it considering its worldwide so called devastating results.

Personally, which I find it hard to believe, is that I'm leaning towards a conspiracy!!

Just my personal opinion from my personal experience

 

[markjay]

To demonstrate the timeline:

People who die today were probably infected around 4-6 weeks ago.

People who are admitted to hospital today were probably infected around 3-4 weeks ago.

People who tested positive today were probably infected around 1-2 weeks ago.

In other words, all those people who will die in the next 4-6 weeks, have already been infected, and there's nothing we can do to stop that now.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

The graphs show an upward incline in Coronavirus infectious, admissions, and deaths.

Thats not what you just said.

They show an incline in admissions and deaths, but that doesn't mean its coronavirus related, just that they tested positive.

There are more positive results due to the hospitals starting to open up, more people going for tests and more people going out and about in general, the folk with positive results generally aren't showing symptoms, so we can assume the admissions are non coronavirus related(devils advocate)

The admissions and deaths are nothing exceptional for this time of year, especially when you said you can't correlate deaths and admissions to coronavirus.

Whatever your other points were(which I dont wish to debate), they are irrelevant to your facts and misleading graphs

 

[markjay]

Just to put my simple twopenneth in,
I've been reading this thread with interest, mumbo jumbo most of it is to me.

But from my real world experience of this is as follows.

Since March I was travelling backwards and forwards to Sweden with their open regulations, then I moved on to Norway which is only ever so slightly tighter(I'm in Norway now).
I've travelled through numerous airports in the UK and Europe/Scandinavia, hired cars, been shopping,sightseeing, work, all without a mask(before airplanes were mandatory).
I work with people from Germany,Denmark,Sweden,Norway,Poland,Romania, and numerous others. These people have been on different projects throughout the world, as far flung as Australia,America and Russia in these time, working with numerous other people from numerous countries and companies, though world wide airports, a total mishmash of people and places.

We all get tested when we arrive in New countries/sites.

There has been NOT ONE positive test result in any site from any company throughout all this.

I feel that my kind of work and my kind of travel opens me up to be susceptible to this virus(along with all my colleagues) I find it difficult to accept that none of us have contracted it considering its worldwide so called devastating results.

Personally, which I find it hard to believe, is that I'm leaning towards a conspiracy!!

Just my personal opinion from my personal experience

Your experience is not unreasonable given the official statistics:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust.

www.ons.gov.uk

'In England, an estimated 5.6% (95% confidence interval 5.0% to 6.2%) of people would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in September, suggesting they had the infection in the past; the highest antibody positivity was seen in London, followed by the North East, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North West.'

The estimate is that only around 5.6% of the population had Coronavirus so far (with or without symptoms), and they would have only been infectious for a period of a couple of weeks.

So at current your chances of being in contact with infected person who is currently infectious are statistically still quite low.

So based on the ONS data, I am guessing that only around 1-2% of the population are actively infectious at any given point of time.

(The stats are for England, but there's no reason to assume that the situation in Wales, Scotland, or Ireland is significantly different).

 

[st13phil]

So 1056 people admited to hospital in one day, is that a large figure for this time of year for a single illness for the total UK population?

In a “typical” year, hospital admissions for respiratory infections peak in the months September through December, at a rate of 700+ per day (ISTR that number relates to England only, not the UK total).

 

[ChipChop]

The biggest killer in this country at the moment is heart disease. This conclusion is based on excess death underlying cause(s) also known as pre exisiting medical conditions or comorbidities. People with comorbidities are the ones dying. The NHS really need to stop being just the Covid health service to the detriment of known treatable pre existing conditions.

Interpreting excess mortality in England: week ending 9 October 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Carl Heneghan, Dan Howdon, Jason Oke, Tom Jefferson Summary: Excess deaths remain low in England, with 112 observed in the

www.cebm.net

And for those shouting second wave, please show me where it is?

 

[Deleted member 150136]

Your experience is not unreasonable

So at current your chances of being in contact with infected person who is currently infectious are statistically still quite low.

So your point(nothing personal), makes a mockery of masks, lockdown, tier systems etc etc, when I can travel the world willy nilly and still have a quite low chance of coming into contact with an infected person and then it actual being transmitted to me?
This is what I take from the points.

Where are the risks?

 

[markjay]

So your point(nothing personal), makes a mockery of masks, lockdown, tier systems etc etc, when I can travel the world willy nilly and still have a quite low chance of coming into contact with an infected person and then it actual being transmitted to me?
This is what I take from the points.

Where are the risks?

If we knew for certain who where the 2% infectious people at any given point of time, we could make only them wear masks.... the reason we are telling 100% of the population to wear masks, is because there's no way of telling who are the 2% infectious ones.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

But according to your statistics its unlikely that people will come into contact with a person who is 'positive', then yoh actually have to get the virus transmtted, then most people don't even show or feel symptoms.
Then your statistics show that the hospitalizations and death rates are currently normal, some of which had a positive result, but thier addmitance/death was not necessarily anything to do with coronavirus.
Other statistics show there isn't a second wave.

Im not an intellectual, just reading, learning and living.

Just seems all the info points to there being no major concern.

 

[st13phil]

Where are the risks?

I find it difficult to believe that 8 months into this global event there is no effort to provide quantitative answers to that question.

Given that information the vast majority of people could (and would) make sensible assessments about their own actions in order to minimise the risk to both themselves and others. Instead we are infantilised with a raft of byzantine micro-management rules.

 

[ChipChop]

If we knew for certain who where the 2% infectious people at any given point of time, we could make only them wear masks.... the reason we are telling 100% of the population to wear masks, is because there's no way of telling who are the 2% infectious ones.

This scenario is not based on any fact. 2% infectious based on a PCR test that cannot distinguish between a live or dead virus. The facts do not demonstrate that 98% of the population are susceptible to this virus. If they were there would be a very large number of ongoing excess deaths and the virus would still be proceeding at the same speed it did during the first wave (March- May).

Very interesting article by Dr Mike Yeadon goes into this area in some depth.

What SAGE Has Got Wrong – The Daily Sceptic

by Mike Yeadon “It’s Easier to Fool People Than It […]

lockdownsceptics.org

 

[markjay]

But according to your statistics its unlikely that people will come into contact with a person who is 'positive', then yoh actually have to get the virus transmtted, then most people don't even show or feel symptoms.
Then your statistics show that the hospitalizations and death rates are currently normal, some of which had a positive result, but thier addmitance/death was not necessarily anything to do with coronavirus.
Other statistics show there isn't a second wave.

Im not an intellectual, just reading, learning and living.

Just seems all the info points to there being no major concern.

Think about it this way.

What percentage of the population will be willing to down a plain? Negligible. Yet we subject 100% of travellers to the strictest security measures.

This is because we can't identity the 0.0001% who would blow-up a plain.

What we also do, is put known terror suspects on a 'no fly' list.

Now think of those who might blow-up a plain as asymptomatic infectious people, and think of the security scans as facemasks and social distancing.

Think of known terror suspects as people who tested positive or have obvious symptoms, and of the 'no fly' list as mandatory self-isolation.

And think of yourself as a passenger on a plain, who accepts that the security checks imposed on them are necessary in order to stop the one person who would blow-up the plain.

Put like this, wouldn't you agree that it is sensible to make everyone wear facemasks in order to stop the one person who would otherwise infect the whole plain?

 

[190]

I tend to agree that the risk is still statistically low however whatever the magnitude of the problem is there is no denying that the rate of infections is growing. Even if that is viewed by some as not a a cause for current lock downs, it begs the question of how these people are getting infected. I do not personally know of a single person I am likely to come into contact with, who has had the virus or even worked with anyone who has.

The big unanswered question for me is a better understanding of how the people that do get the virus are being infected, which would go a long way to quantifying the risk. We need to know more about the mechanism of infection so that the precautions we do take can be proportionate. Fleeting contact at the shops doesn't seem to me to be a big risk and outdoors it must be virtually impossible, so it has to be predominately pubs and restaurants, which since the summer I'm not going anywhere near.

I look back to the spring when we were only allowed one brief exercise outdoors and people crossed the road to avoid each other. I can't help thinking there was a degree of government induced hysteria in peoples behaviour which I hope we don't return to.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

Security measures for a terrorist act on a plane don't affect people, you simply put different products in a different case, or you buy your drink after security.
There is no similarities whatsoever with masks,lockdown and airport security.

 

[markjay]

This scenario is not based on any fact. 2% infectious based on a PCR test that cannot distinguish between a live or dead virus. The facts do not demonstrate that 98% of the population are susceptible to this virus. If they were there would be a very large number of ongoing excess deaths and the virus would still be proceeding at the same speed it did during the first wave (March- May).

Very interesting article by Dr Mike Yeadon goes into this area in some depth.

What SAGE Has Got Wrong – The Daily Sceptic

by Mike Yeadon “It’s Easier to Fool People Than It […]

lockdownsceptics.org

We have no argument on this one.

My post was in response to Cabriomat's post #5,483, where he asked how it was possible that so many people he knows travelled abroad and back and never tested positive - i.e. if the virus was indeed out there, surely they should have caught it by now?

What I said was that the proportion of people who are infectious at any given point of time is very small (based on antibody test statistics, BTW, not on PCR testing, but either way it's not relevant to the issue).

I estimated the percentage of the population who are actively infectious at any given point of time to be in the region of 1-2%. It may more or it may be less, that's irrelevant for the purpose of my post. Even if it was as high as 5%, your chances of coming into contact with an infectious person are statistically very small.

So, to sum-up, my point was that Cabriomat's experience is very much online with the ONS published data, and therefore shouldn't come as a surprise.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

Since lockdown I've worked as normal, including work in a council block of flats in the centre of newcastle(lift maintenance), drank freely in my local pubs, Norway, Sweden and numerous other airports.
Im currently shopping in Norway mask free, and will be drinking and eating out as normal tonight, as I have done since March.

Im not an at risk person, I take care and am sensible. Along with my many work colleagues and Scandinavians who do the same.

You wouldn't know there was a virus apart from signs and plastic screens.

I know of one neighbours son who tested positive at uni, no ill effects, apart from that its all which I've read.

Don't get me wrong, there is something out there causing sad events, but nothing like the UK Media/government is leading us to believe....in my opinion and from my real world observations away from the UK

 

[markjay]

Security measures for a terrorist act on a plane don't affect people, you simply put different products in a different case, or you buy your drink after security.
There is no similarities whatsoever with masks,lockdown and airport security.

With respect, it was an analogy as to why we are imposing mask wearing on everyone. Obviously blowing-up plains and infecting everyone onboard with Coronavirus are two different things.

 

[markjay]

The biggest killer in this country at the moment is heart disease. This conclusion is based on excess death underlying cause(s) also known as pre exisiting medical conditions or comorbidities. People with comorbidities are the ones dying. The NHS really need to stop being just the Covid health service to the detriment of known treatable pre existing conditions.

Interpreting excess mortality in England: week ending 9 October 2020 - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Carl Heneghan, Dan Howdon, Jason Oke, Tom Jefferson Summary: Excess deaths remain low in England, with 112 observed in the

www.cebm.net

Agreed, and indeed for a number of years now the NHS has been actively pushing the message that people should drink less, stop smoking, eat healthy, and exercise more, but there's no reason why we shouldn't be trying to stop Coronavirus from spreading at the same time while we try to get people to avoid heart disease.

And for those shouting second wave, please show me where it is?

View attachment 103898

We've been through that... there isn't a second wave, yet. The reason we are carefully monitoring the statistics is that we want to try and detect a second wave just as it starts, and well before it peaks.