Covid-19 Discussion

[Deleted member 65149]

As we hurtle towards another leak-it-to-the-press-first lockdown:

Covid: 1,700 employers planned redundancies in September

And:
'A new lockdown will be far worse for businesses'

“This week, the London Ambulance Service revealed that it is now attending an average of 37 suicides a day, or attempted suicides, up from 22 a day in 2019.”

So 50% more suicides in London alone!!!

Assuming the same increase in England and Wales as a whole, that would result in 50% of 5691 = 2846 extra suicides. An awful figure, but not in the same league as Covid-19 deaths of 46,555.

 

[Big Janner]

Waiting for the 5pm news briefing.....

The BBC Health Editor Hugh Pym is saying that COVID-19-related hospital admissions went-up tenfold since August.

And Ms Reeta Chakrabarti, on the 16.30 news special today, said; (reading from an autocue I hope) that there has been a further 326 deaths from Corona Virus today.
This is, patently, rubbish!
326 deaths today, within 28 days of a positive covid test, yes

No wonder that the impartiality of the BBC is in doubt

 

[Deleted member 37751]

Very sad, but the obvious question is if more lives are saved overall due to the anti-COVID measures imposed? I don't know the answer to this question.

As long as it doesn’t affect you, eh?

 

[whitenemesis]

As we hurtle towards another leak-it-to-the-press-first lockdown:

Covid: 1,700 employers planned redundancies in September

And:
'A new lockdown will be far worse for businesses'

“This week, the London Ambulance Service revealed that it is now attending an average of 37 suicides a day, or attempted suicides, up from 22 a day in 2019.”

So 50% more suicides in London alone!!!

What is the split between attempted and actual?

 

[Darrell]

As long as it doesn’t affect you, eh?

Life is hard.

 

[markjay]

As long as it doesn’t affect you, eh?

No, I don't subscribe to this mentality, which is also why I am not a proponent of The Great Barrington Declaration.

 

[Deleted member 150136]

As we hurtle towards another leak-it-to-the-press-first lockdown:

Covid: 1,700 employers planned redundancies in September

And:
'A new lockdown will be far worse for businesses'

“This week, the London Ambulance Service revealed that it is now attending an average of 37 suicides a day, or attempted suicides, up from 22 a day in 2019.”

So 50% more suicides in London alone!!!

Assuming the same increase in England and Wales as a whole, that would result in 50% of 5691 = 2846 extra suicides. An awful figure, but not in the same league as Covid-19 deaths of 46,555.

I can't work out where you get 2846 from?

If there are 15 more suicides a day in London alone, that makes approximately 2700 extra deaths in a 6 month period.
If you times it by say 20, to get an approximate UK average, it would be 54000 extra suicides/attempts, if only 50% succeed it's still very high.(unless my sums are way off? which they may be,).
If this drags on for longer and longer which figure is going to be higher?
Then if you double it to include 'regular' suicides you're into hundreds of thousands.
This new lockdown will only increase that figure

just for perspective.

 

[Dryce]

Assuming the same increase in England and Wales as a whole, that would result in 50% of 5691 = 2846 extra suicides. An awful figure, but not in the same league as Covid-19 deaths of 46,555.

If the majority of suicides are below 50 and the majority of covid deaths above 75 then .... actually it's a horrendous figure in terms of *years* lost to suicides - arguably in the same league.

 

[Deleted member 65149]

I can't work out where you get 2846 from?

If there are 15 more suicides a day in London alone, that makes approximately 2700 extra deaths in a 6 month period.
If you times it by say 20, to get an approximate UK average, it would be 54000 extra suicides/attempts, if only 50% succeed it's still very high.(unless my sums are way off? which they may be,).
If this drags on for longer and longer which figure is going to be higher?
Then if you double it to include 'regular' suicides you're into hundreds of thousands.
This new lockdown will only increase that figure

just for perspective.

I used the latest published figure of 5691 suicides in England and Wales in 2019. 50% of that is 2846. The only estimate I used was the worst case scenario 50% increase deduced by SPX. There are apparently 15 more suicide ATTEMPTS a day in London.

Suicides in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in England and Wales from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[markjay]

I used the latest published figure of 5691 suicides in England and Wales in 2019. 50% of that is 2846. The only estimate I used was the worst case scenario 50% increase deduced by SPX. There are apparently 15 more suicide ATTEMPTS a day in London.

Suicides in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in England and Wales from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

Then there's the reduction in road deaths and violent crime deaths during lockdown.

Again, I am not sure that it's easy to do the math and know for certain if it's net gain or net loss.

 

[ChipChop]

I find it baffling that some are still trying to justify lockdowns on the basis that this policy of suppression or delay of a virus will save more "covid deaths" than lives lost to cancer and all the other known global health issues that have been demoted and not dealt with for the last 7 months.

 

[Harrythedog]

As we hurtle towards another leak-it-to-the-press-first lockdown:

Another win for the scientists and doom mongers

June, July and August shops, pubs and restaurants open and covi figures are down.
September kids and students back and the figures start to shoot up.

Get the schools etc shut down now and let the economy carry on, after all the kids have got plenty of time left to catch up a month or so of education

 

[markjay]

I find it baffling that some are still trying to justify lockdowns on the basis that this policy of suppression or delay of a virus will save more "covid deaths" than lives lost to cancer and all the other known global health issues that have been demoted and not dealt with for the last 7 months.

Personally I would like to avoid a second lockdown, but reading and looking at the news in the past couple of hours it seems that theres an overwhelming number of medical experts that say it's the right thing to do.

 

[ChipChop]

Personally I would like to avoid a second lockdown, but reading and looking at the news in the past couple of hours it seems that theres an overwhelming number of medical experts that say it's the right thing to do.

Lockdown will aim to supress the virus so test and trace can work. Medical experts are involved in this sort of decision making?

 

[markjay]

Lockdown will aim to supress the virus so test and trace can work. Medical experts are involved in this sort of decision making?

No idea, I was just pointing-out that there's no reason to be baffled - seems like this is the common view among experts at current.

 

[Dryce]

looking at the news in the past couple of hours it seems that theres an overwhelming number of medical experts that say it's the right thing to do.

Perhaps quite a few people - like the teachers' and lecturers' unions who don't worry about where the money to pay their salaries and pensions comes from.

Part of the moral hazard of this crisis.

If the experts are not taking into account all the consequences of their advice - but giving their advice very publcly via the media - then they are part of the problem and not part of the solution.

 

[Deleted member 37751]

Perhaps quite a few people - like the teachers' and lecturers' unions who don't worry about where the money to pay their salaries and pensions comes from.

Those with the least to lose tend to be the loudest.

If the experts are not taking into account all the consequences of their advice

I don’t think they ever have done but, to be fair, that’s not their job; it should be our government making the balanced decisions.

If you listen to most “experts” they tell you the only way to really eradicate the virus is complete and utter lockdown while completely disregarding the unintended catastrophic consequences that would have.

 

[markjay]

Perhaps quite a few people - like the teachers' and lecturers' unions who don't worry about where the money to pay their salaries and pensions comes from.

Part of the moral hazard of this crisis.

If the experts are not taking into account all the consequences of their advice - but giving their advice very publcly via the media - then they are part of the problem and not part of the solution.

Agreed, and that's precisely the job of government, to make the decisions that need to be made, based on the data provided by the experts, medical and others. So I am watching the press conference, waiting to hear what exactly the government has decided to do.

 

[Deleted member 149005]

An expert is “a has been drip under pressure”...

 

[Deleted member 150136]

I used the latest published figure of 5691 suicides in England and Wales in 2019. 50% of that is 2846. The only estimate I used was the worst case scenario 50% increase deduced by SPX. There are apparently 15 more suicide ATTEMPTS a day in London.

Suicides in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in England and Wales from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

Ahh ok.

But the amount of people trying to kill themselves has escalated since the covid situation?

So the INCREASE in the amount of suicide attempted cases is quite similar to covid 'related' deaths.

I wonder if this is because they are worried about catching this deadly virus and can no longer cope or for other reasons?

Surely there is going to be a second wave of suicide escalations after another lockdown?