UK CAR SALES DROP.

[grober]

UK car sales see first drop for six years
DIESELGATE or BREXIT ----other acronyms are available.

 

[markjay]

Chap on the news explained today that in recent year there has been a year on year increase in new car sales, and this obviously could not continue indefinitely. He also said that overall new car sales in the UK are strong and that the recent figures do not necessarily indicate that there's a problem with the market.

 

[chrisk2010]

I was just reading this on a rare coffee break looking out the window in Billericay as 7 new 17 plates drove past 2 saloons 4 SUVs and a van ( not in that order ) then a 16 plate Peugeot and BMW.

 

[grober]

Chap on the news explained today that in recent year there has been a year on year increase in new car sales, and this obviously could not continue indefinitely. He also said that overall new car sales in the UK are strong and that the recent figures do not necessarily indicate that there's a problem with the market.

And all our cars come with a full valet, engineer's report, a recent MOT and six months warranty! [ Terms and conditions apply]
In other words if the chap/spokesperson was from some motor trade association is hardly likely he's going to admit to, and thus re-enforce, a drop in consumer confidence.
That said there will be certain market sectors which will be "business as usual" the figures will reflect overall market trends.

 

[GeeJayW]

My guess is that there has been a drop overall as many private buyers and companies who would have bought new diesel cars hold fire on the next purchase/lease. Essentially buyers waiting for some clarity on both Dieselgate/Emissions issues and Brexit. So the big hit has been to the diesel market

It's worth remembering that Joe Public was encouraged by government(s) to purchase diesel cars. It's also worth considering that the reduced contribution of atmospheric CO2 from diesel road-transport is still valid, though downsized-boosted gasoline engines do help with this. The main Achilies Heel for Diesel cars is NOx emissions. I don't see how essentially discouraging people from moving to Euro 6+ diesel cars whilst they continue to drive around in Euro 5- diesels, is in anyway helpful in all of this. Biggest problem with emissions is simply the increased number of cars on our roads and in our towns and cities.

Meanwhile the sale of gasoline powered cars has probably gone up slightly. The downside of this is that as gasoline cars trend towards direct fuel injection in order to improve engine efficiency and lower CO2 emissions, they then produce as much particulates as diesel vehicles. So we can expect to see particulate filters fitted to gasoline cars soon. Regenerating them might be fun though.

Sales of hybrids have perhaps also increased, but they are still pretty expensive compared to ICE only vehicles so one has to be keen to purchase.

I'd be surprised if there is a strong swing to EVs until infrastructure and range sensitivity issues are more clear, plus I've no idea how strong the demand is for ex-lease EVs so not easy to see what the second-hand market looks for these. That will impact on throughput which of course impacts on new purchases.

In addition to all of this, the recent focus on PCP deals and how they may be the next PPI is probably hurting sales to private buyers, who are also probably a little less well off these days for various reasons.

It's something of a pipe dream that businesses and shareholders (and I am one, so to a degree am a hypocrite) expect to sell more product and make more money year on year. That's one of the drivers that is slowly but surely damaging the sustainability of our way of life.

Anyway, rant over...

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

No different to the USA, where car sales are down for the first time in eight years. Why does anyone expect us to break records in car sales every year?

Especially in a world where cars last longer than ever, don't rust anywhere near as much as they used to, where fuel is taxed at 200%, and where fat people choose to cycle, rather than cut back on the doughnuts?...... And where Electric cars are being touted as being just around the corner

Here's the US story on THEIR drop in sales:

Auto sales fall for the first time in 8 years


While two million people cycle at least once a week, an all time high. (Dad would never have forecast that). Here are some stats

The unstoppable growth of cycling


.

 

[Dryce]

My guess is that there has been a drop overall as many private buyers and companies who would have bought new diesel cars hold fire on the next purchase/lease. Essentially buyers waiting for some clarity on both Dieselgate/Emissions issues and Brexit. So the big hit has been to the diesel market

I don't think Brexit has had much effect (though it might later on).

The big things are uncertainty as to vehicle policy. We've had announcements about LEZs and ULEZs and charges and bans in the city centres. We've had shifts in VED policy. We've had major declarations about shift away from internal combustion engine cars in the longer term.

I'm not prepared to buy a new car right now unless I absolutely had to. I can't be the only one exercising their discretion and hanging on to older vehicles.

As an example. Euro 5 diesels were OK and on sale until not long ago. Now we have the prospect of them being banned or penalised through charging. So if I buy a Euro XYZ car today there is no guarantee that there won't be LPG-gate or petrol-gate or electric-gate or driver-respires-CO2 gate or car-is-wrong-colour-gate ......... and I will be told that my 2018 car is automobile-non-grata on the roads two or three years later.

 

[Dryce]

While two million people cycle at least once a week, an all time high. (Dad would never have forecast that). Here are some stats

The unstoppable growth of cycling

I wonder what % of the once a week cyclists stick their bikes in, on top of, or behind the car and drive somewhere to cycle.

 

[GeeJayW]

I used to occasionally cycle to work (9-miles each way). But since retiring, the bike (a decent hybrid purchased on the RTW scheme in 2010) hasn't come off its hooks in the garage! Something I must put right this year.

My son-in-law is a fairly keen cyclist and clocked up just short of 5,000 miles last year and is generally a fit person. On the other hand he has also been knocked off his bike by motorists a few times, one such event earning him hospital treatment for concussion and an injured knee. One of his friends was knocked off by a motorist in 2016 and died at the scene.

So if one can survive on the road, cycling can be good for you I guess.

 

[PhilLinda]

I wonder what % of the once a week cyclists stick their bikes in, on top of, or behind the car and drive somewhere to cycle.

Presumably they can't do that at the same time as they are cycling to work though.

 

[grober]

The growing evidence for particle and carcinogen generation [benzopyrene is only one example] in gasoline direct injection (GDI) vehicles continues to mount. It would appear the more engineers make a petrol engine behave like a diesel in the name of economy the more it suffers similar emission problems to compression ignition engines. Particulate Emissions can however easily be reduced with PPFs I find it hard to believe vehicle manufacturers are unaware of this phenomenon but once more are prepared to sit on their hands till legislation forces their hand.
http://www.ccem.ch/MediaBoard/CCEM_Annual_Activity_Report_2016.pdf#page=59&view=Fit

 

[GeeJayW]

They sit on their hands because none of them want to add a PPF (and associated costs) in isolation from their competitors. So when the regulations force the introduction of PPF technology, all the OEMs will get on board at the same time.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I used to occasionally cycle to work (9-miles each way). But since retiring, the bike (a decent hybrid purchased on the RTW scheme in 2010) hasn't come off its hooks in the garage! Something I must put right this year.

My son-in-law is a fairly keen cyclist and clocked up just short of 5,000 miles last year and is generally a fit person. On the other hand he has also been knocked off his bike by motorists a few times, one such event earning him hospital treatment for concussion and an injured knee. One of his friends was knocked off by a motorist in 2016 and died at the scene.

So if one can survive on the road, cycling can be good for you I guess.

It's well established that cycling is safer than walking in London. But you do have to wonder why young men walk to work in London, when they face five times the risk of death by walking than a cyclist doing the same journey. Here's just one of many studies by UCL: Cycling safer than driving for young people

Another one on why cycling is a safe way of commuting:
Why cycling to work saves lives

And the NHS neatly summarises that cycling reduces the likelihood of us getting diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure, heart attacks, occurrence of stroke, cancer - basically increasing our life expectancy by every hour that we cycle:
NHS Special News analysis: Cycling safety special report

Look around you as you drive around the UK and you'll see more people cycling than five, ten or twenty years ago.

But my point was that the infinite year on year increase in UK car sales presupposes that more and more people want to buy a new car each year than the previous.

Which seems a naive assumption to say the least, unless we start automatically scrapping cars at a certain age.

 

[grober]

They sit on their hands because none of them want to add a PPF (and associated costs) in isolation from their competitors. So when the regulations force the introduction of PPF technology, all the OEMs will get on board at the same time.

That's correct of course but depends on how you look at it. IF, and its a big IF, all said manufacturers -as measure of their "social reponsibility "- which they like to bang on about in their publicity, would get together and actively be lobbying governments in the meantime to adopt such measures I would be more charitable. Maybe they are ? However after the VAG dieselgate fiasco the evidence seems to be to the contrary.

 

[Dryce]

IF, and its a big IF, all said manufacturers -as measure of their "social reponsibility "- which they like to bang on about in their publicity, would get together and actively be lobbying governments in the meantime to adopt such measures I would be more charitable. Maybe they are ?

I suspect that governments are not very good at taking advice, there is too much dogma among some politicians, the media is sly and mercurial and can create arbitrary agendas, and the buying public has an odd sense of proportionality. Meanwhile the car makers are in competition with one another and have huge ongoing strategic investments that need to be recovered over years.

I guess if you want to look at positives as regards the manufacturers - they are investing big time in new vehicle types. That's not cheap and the returns are not guaranteed.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

There's a lot of dodgy Eco point scoring and tax-raising manipulation going on.

Most of London's pollution problem doesn't come from the bog standard Golf Diesel driving private citizen.

The true cause of the central London pollution is: Wood burning stoves, which produce 25-33% of the pollutants (sic), heavy commercials, including buses, and traffic flows in areas like Euston Road, Putney High Street etc. Rather than doing anything proactive, Government are just playing for time by debating whether to increase the 200% tax on fuel.


Pizza stoves more important than cars in causing pollution? Here's the background:
Blame Wood-Burning Stoves for London's Terrible Air

 

[TheFoX]

The motorist cannot win.

According to the Jeremy Vine program on Radio Two, if you buy diesel, you'll choke us to death, and if you buy petrol, you'll bake us to death.

NOx versus CO2 according to Viney.

Then again, they were promoting the new electric cars, saying that these were the future of motoring.

Then again, one of the presenters added that if you have a 120 mile range with an electric car, what happens if you are stuck in traffic and your range is decreasing by the minute. Obviously she doesn't understand that when you are at a standstill, you are using no current whatsoever, except the radio of course. Even though the car was electric, she also thought that it's electric engine would still be ticking over in traffic.

Why, oh why, don't radio presenters do their homework before reporting on news items.

I can't wait to buy my own electric car. I want a car with four massive electric motors, one at each wheel, with a computer ensuring that the right amount of torque is delivered to each wheel. The whole thing would be powered by a 3.0 litre diesel mated to an alternator which would provide the power to the electric motors. No direct drive needed.

(Any excess power produced can be stored in the lithion ion batteries, then sent to the National Grid when you plug the car in when you get home).

 

[Deleted member 113659]

Then again, one of the presenters added that if you have a 120 mile range with an electric car, what happens if you are stuck in traffic and your range is decreasing by the minute. Obviously she doesn't understand that when you are at a standstill, you are using no current whatsoever, except the radio of course. Even though the car was electric, she also thought that it's electric engine would still be ticking over in traffic.

Yep. I heard that too. The Lass on Steve Wright.


wondered if anyone on the forum would post about her comment.

 

[markjay]

Well if it was night time you'll need to have the headlamps on;

If it was summer you'd want the aircon on;

If it was winter you'd want the heater fan and the heated seats on;

Your phone might be in the charger;

And the massive LCD display won't be switch-off off either;

So yes I can see the range dropping if you are stuck in a traffic jam.

Perhpas a Tesla owner could comment on the range display when stuck in stationary traffic?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Well if it was night time you'll need to have the headlamps on;
......

Perhpas a Tesla owner could comment on the range display when stuck in stationary traffic?

Here's the answer from the Tesla users. As expected, insignificant loss. What uses power is accelerating a two tonne vehicle to 60 mph and driving it a hundred miles, not sitting in traffic. Here's the link:

Model S Owners - Range loss while sitting still? | Tesla