Panorama: Britain's Killer Roads?

[MikeInWimbledon]

It’s worth remembering the nonsense that we get on diminishing air quality on the roads.

We’ve got 33,000,000 cars on the road, the highest since their invention. And we drive faster, on average, than ever, treating speed limits as “speed recommendations.”

Let’s look at road deaths per year:

 

[Tonygw]

Do you have the figures from 2016-2022?

 

[190]

It’s worth remembering the nonsense that we get on diminishing air quality on the roads.

We’ve got 33,000,000 cars on the road, the highest since their invention. And we drive faster, on average, than ever, treating speed limits as “speed recommendations.”

Let’s look at road deaths per year:

View attachment 122890

The steep fall in road deaths up to 2010 is as much a reflection of improving car safety as it is an indication of driving standards. A graph of the number of accidents would be a better indication of driving standards although even then car technology is partly responsible for accident reductions.

The accident data still shows a falling trend but strangely the number of serious/fatal accidents plateau and even increases slightly from 2010. So what we have is falling total accident rates and minor accident rates after 2010 but a slight increase serious/fatal accidents. That does suggest to me that driving standards have fallen.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

The steep fall in road deaths up to 2010 is as much a reflection of improving car safety as it is an indication of driving standards. A graph of the number of accidents would be a better indication of driving standards although even then car technology is partly responsible for accident reductions.

The accident data still shows a falling trend but strangely the number of serious/fatal accidents plateau and even increases slightly from 2010. So what we have is falling total accident rates and minor accident rates after 2010 but a slight increase serious/fatal accidents. That does suggest to me that driving standards have fallen.

View attachment 122894

Agreed, broadly, although, from memory, Europe hasn't seen as dramatic a fall, which perhaps suggests that they're not getting the car technology gain that we're getting.

But I'm not sure how you read the "driving standards have fallen" point into that data. If someone had asked me to explain the slight increase since 2010 in the UK, off the cuff, I would have mused whether this decade's obsession with cycling, cycle commuting, and idiot delivery motorcyclists has cost lives. That sounds like a Londoner's perspective, but I think it applies to a provincial cities and rural cycling.

For what it's worth, we do still have the lowest rate of road fatalities in Europe. "But no doubt they gone up since 2016 because of Brexit." (Only joking, honest)



Archive:Road safety statistics - characteristics at national and regional level - Statistics Explained

 

[zipdip]

Well post 21 with the graph tells a story,not surprising with WW2 and the Black Out that there was that many deaths on the roads,and then it falls to 1950 not surprising most ordinary people could not afford a car or even a motorbike,but then after time you had the motorways and crap cars driving around with rod brakes and so the death rate increased to 1966 not long after we had seat belts and better cars and the rate of deaths on the roads goes down until less face it a very low death rate given the amount of vehicles that are on the roads today.
But with tv shows saying our roads are dangerous,and vested interests of all the people employed to make our roads safer you would get a completly different picture,if you were at all suspicious you would think those people had a vested interest in saying so.

 

[markjay]

It’s worth remembering the nonsense that we get on diminishing air quality on the roads.

Is this a typo?

 

[markjay]

I think it's difficult to accurately assess the contribution of each factor to the reduction in the deaths per-capita on our roads over the years.

It's very likely to be, as others have said, a combination of improved passive car safety, active car safety (collision warning/prevention etc), and increased awareness to safety in general and to road safety in particular.

Better roads, better driving standards, and better enforcement may also be factors.

But we should also keep in mind that the reduction in per-capita death rates has been achieved against the backdrop of having more cars on the roads, and having more distractions - initially the Nokia-type cellphone, then the iPhone/Android smartphones. Never before in the history of the motorcar have drivers been more distracted....

So it's difficult to analyse the negative and positive effects of each of these factors, given that we can only measure the net result.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Is this a typo?

Obviously not.

As a gentleman of a certain age, you'll know that London's air is now cleaner than it has been for five or six centuries.

You'll remember factories spurting out smoking, factories, pubs, and cinemas with "yellow air" inside them during the daytime in winter and in evenings all through the year. The coal and wood fires in every house, and in most offices. The light and heavy industry burning fuel for heat and shoving out local smells. The steam and diesel trains.

You'll remember the smelling the exhaust of 1950's motors and the insane congestion on City and town roads.

The image is taken from this link: What the history of London’s air pollution can tell us about the future of today’s growing megacities

(Ignore the reference to Delhi, just look at the London particulate numbers)





It's only 160 years since they started running steam trains on the Underground at Baker Street. Steam trains. Unbelievably it wasn't until 1961 that the Metropolitan line stopped using steam trains - although other Circle and District lines stopped using steam a bit earlier.

 

[markjay]

Obviously not.

As a gentleman of a certain age, you'll know that London's air is now cleaner than it has been for five or six centuries.

Sorry for not being clear in my post - I was not questioning the veracity of your original statement, it's just that it didn't seem related to the topic of this thread.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Sorry for not being clear in my post - I was not questioning the veracity of your original statement, it's just that it didn't seem related to the topic of this thread.

So when I said "It’s worth remembering the nonsense that we get on diminishing air quality on the roads." I was trying to compare this nonsense about "Britain's killer roads" to the nonsense about "Britain's killer air pollution."

We have made, and continue to make, huge strides of improvement and we shouldn't lose sight of those improvements.

When the Police plead for more resources "to tackle road deaths," we need to be well aware that we've poured billions into passive safety, electronic surveillance & control systems etc etc. We have been spending money on this, and it is continuing to pay dividends.

Likewise we need to cast a cynical eye at what actually "drives" death numbers. Could it be other factors, like cycling, motorcycling, delivery drivers, young drivers. It's too easy to jump to assumptions that it's "just speed." Maybe it is "just speed" outside schools, maybe it is "just speed" on Devon's lanes, but let's prod it with a stick to understand why.

And let's not forget that we do have some of the safest roads in Europe already. Even if part of the reason why is that half of us are crowded into a small area South and East of Birmingham, or because we don't drink and drive as much as our European Neighbours.

 

[markjay]

So when I said "It’s worth remembering the nonsense that we get on diminishing air quality on the roads." I was trying to compare this nonsense about "Britain's killer roads" to the nonsense about "Britain's killer air pollution."

We have made, and continue to make, huge strides of improvement and we shouldn't lose sight of those improvements.

When the Police plead for more resources "to tackle road deaths," we need to be well aware that we've poured billions into passive safety, electronic surveillance & control systems etc etc. We have been spending money on this, and it is continuing to pay dividends.

Likewise we need to cast a cynical eye at what actually "drives" death numbers. Could it be other factors, like cycling, motorcycling, delivery drivers, young drivers. It's too easy to jump to assumptions that it's "just speed." Maybe it is "just speed" outside schools, maybe it is "just speed" on Devon's lanes, but let's prod it with a stick to understand why.

And let's not forget that we do have some of the safest roads in Europe already. Even if part of the reason why is that half of us are crowded into a small area South and East of Birmingham, or because we don't drink and drive as much as our European Neighbours.

The underlying issue is lack of control group in real life.

So we have made improvements in road safety and in air quality. But have we been efficient - i.e. could we not have done better? Much better, even? Seeing an improvement carries the risk of complacency.

Likewise, when things get worse, perhaps our mitigations were in fact very successful, and things are as good as they can be under the circumstances - they would have been much worse had we not done what we did.

[Pedantic Social Sciences hat removed]

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

The underlying issue is lack of control group in real life.

So we have made improvements in road safety and in air quality. But have we been efficient - i.e. could we not have done better? Much better, even? Seeing an improvement carries the risk of complacency.

Likewise, when things get worse, perhaps our mitigations were in fact very successful, and things are as good as they can be under the circumstances - they would have been much worse had we not done what we did.

[Pedantic Social Sciences hat removed]

No complacency intended from my comment. Only the need to challenge the claims for extra resources and ensure value for money.

Classic worked example is the Police. My relative happily tells the story that when he became a PC the only piece of equipment he was given was a truncheon and a whistle. Both he had to pay for himself. We've thown a fortune at the Police in the form of all kinds of tech but still they argue that police numbers should not be cut, or should be restored to such and such a level. They're ignoring all the CCTV, the tech, the vehicles, etc etc. that have made productivity so much greater.

The hypothetical gold standard is crucial in science, but so difficult to apply in social science because we've got limited chances to experiment with control groups.

OK, with £2.2 trillion worth of Government debt on the books, call it 95% of GDP, does Value For Money matter?

Now that interest rates are flying up towards 3 or 4%, probably. Think of it as an annual interest bill of £88 billion, or 10% of Government revenue.


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[Phil1968]

If ever there were proof that driving standards are in decline, this metal bell is on the corner of a road junction near me, it's to stop drivers cutting the corner & has been there for at least 50 years. The incidences of it being hit have increased ten fold in the last 10 years. There have even been cars ending upside down on their roof

 

[Deleted member 159894]

If ever there were proof that driving standards are in decline, this metal bell is on the corner of a road junction near me, it's to stop drivers cutting the corner & has been there for at least 50 years. The incidences of it being hit have increased ten fold in the last 10 years. There have even been cars ending upside down on their roof

Careful, the forum stalker will be able to learn all about you from a photo.

 

[Phil1968]

Careful, the forum stalker will be able to learn all about you from a photo.

That's not me in the photo btw, he's a local fella who's campaigning to have the bell painted a fluorescent colour because his son recently hit it, causing a grand's worth of damage to his car

 

[Dippo]

Maybe he should have his son's car painted a fluorescent colour so that other road users can be alerted to the fact there's a visually-impaired driver on the road?

 

[Merc220cls]

I’ve been saying for years now that driving standards are getting worse.
There’s no real deterrent and it’s not just driving standards, just look at the amount of litter on our roadsides.
This last few months I’ve been litter picking in our village and have extended this to the several roads leading into the village. I’ve lost count of the number of volunteer bags I’ve filled but the biggest shock I got was picking up just under 200 half bottles of High Commissioner whisky all on the same side and within a 1/4 mile stretch of road.
On another road it was a huge amount (approx 60 pairs) of blue “sterile” gloves and almost pristine face masks, obviously dumped by heath care workers. Even the box for the gloves was dumped out on the verge.
For safety I have a heavy duty high vis jacket and always walk facing the traffic and listen out for oncoming cars but it’s amazing that some don’t even bother to lift off the gas or even give the required distance when passing pedestrians.

 

[Tonygw]

That's not me in the photo btw, he's a local fella who's campaigning to have the bell painted a fluorescent colour because his son recently hit it, causing a grand's worth of damage to his car

Why doesn't he just paint it himself when nobody is looking? for the sake of a £5 tub of fluorescent paint?

 

[rayaans]

The steep fall in road deaths up to 2010 is as much a reflection of improving car safety as it is an indication of driving standards. A graph of the number of accidents would be a better indication of driving standards although even then car technology is partly responsible for accident reductions.

The accident data still shows a falling trend but strangely the number of serious/fatal accidents plateau and even increases slightly from 2010. So what we have is falling total accident rates and minor accident rates after 2010 but a slight increase serious/fatal accidents. That does suggest to me that driving standards have fallen.

View attachment 122894

How does any of the data above show that driving standards have fallen? There's simply too many variables. Fatality and accidents could have been caused by a drunk drivers for example and the data doesnt take that into account.

Additionally there's no way of saying how quickly vehicles are travelling which automatically causes a higher likelihood of fatality.

The only thing that can be gathered from the above data is that the total number of roughly plateued whilst the total accidents and minor ones reduced from 2015 onwards. Everything else is hearsay or assumption.

 

[Dryce]

If ever there were proof that driving standards are in decline, this metal bell is on the corner of a road junction near me, it's to stop drivers cutting the corner & has been there for at least 50 years. The incidences of it being hit have increased ten fold in the last 10 years. There have even been cars ending upside down on their roof

Cars getting bigger and the A pillars are getting thicker.

My view is that UK issues come down to gaining through the 70s and 80s and 90s because of cars becoming safer (ABS is standard, brakes are better, maintenance / reliability is better), seatbelts, drink driving enforcement and culture. I think that some of that was undone by a mix of European drivers arriving in the late 90s and 2000s. And subsequently our authoritarian councils are making roads less safe by poor design, apalling signage, complexity - and this has been combined with a lack of safety from other users and an increase in population density.

The upshot is (a) that given everything our stats are impressive; and (b) if there was a bit more common sense in our councils and planners they could be a bit more impressive.

I would add if you want an example of flawed bad thinking - consider that the dictatorship that is Scotland has mandated new smoke alarm regulations that are (a) ill founded (b) poorly explained to the public and (c) will likely have no tangible value .... and yet this change has been passed with little comment and objection and is actively supported by safty groups. (My cynical side says more people will get or have been injured / killed by acquiring and fixing the new smoke detectors than will be saved by them).