The lowest petrol price?

[carnut]

With oil falling from $150/barrel to $42 today how about a guess at what will be the lowest price on the forecourt for petrol in the next 6 months?

I will start with 79p

 

[jme1981]

where thats it im moving lol 89.9 in perth scotland

 

[carnut]

where thats it im moving lol 89.9 in perth scotland

This is a future prediction...not the present;
so whats your guess?

 

[KillerHERTZ]

Its going up again isnt it? 2p tax increase

 

[carnut]

Its going up again isnt it? 2p tax increase

Tax increase= VAT decrease, but what's the chance of the tax going down when the VAT goes back up?

 

[stevesey]

Feeding $42 and an exchange rate of 1.44 into the rough model I came up with when we were having the petrol price discussion a month or two ago I come up with 87.9p.

Seems high, but pound has declined as fast as oil pices over the past couple of weeks so we probably won't see much of a fall (or my figures are wrong ).

 

[carnut]

Already seen 84.9 in banbury last week

 

[flango]

Oil at $30 a barrel in March my guess 81.9 per litre

 

[richard]

Tax increase= VAT decrease

Actually, thats what they told you - but in fact for unleaded there was an overall increase - i.e it would have gone down if they didnt change anything.

At the time, petrol was 89.9 round here (inc VAT at 17.5%).
89.9p inc VAT = 76.5106 ex 17.5% VAT
+2p duty increase = 78.5106
Add 15% VAT = 90.29 inc VAT. (yes, VAT is added on top of the fuel duty)
I.e up .3p per litre

At £1.04 its roughly tax neutral change.

Also, given that the government have been expecting that fuel prices drop, of course this change means that as fuel prices drop its worse for us the consumer. (i.e the VAT drop will become a lot less than the 2p increase)

For instance, if petrol had been at 60p/litre at 17.5% VAT, the resultant price would be 61.02

Cheers

Richard

[ps, i'm quite happy to be told my calculation is wrong by someone with better accounting/tax skills then me]

 

[crockers]

In the states they're predicting $1 a US gallon soon so may see the renewal of the American love of big SUVs. I doubt we will see petrol drop much below 80p a litre but I hope I'm wrong. So my guess is 79.9p.

 

[mapleleaf]

its72 cents a litre in Toronto - was $1.35 3 months ago , a similar perecentage drop should follow in Uk I would have thought.

 

[Swiss Toni]

It says here;

http://www.petrolprices.com/

Cheapest today is 87.9p for unleaded, 101.9p for diesel nationally.

My guess would be 79.9p for unleaded.

 

[VB123]

32p.....here in the UAE, which is quite a lot thinking about it, no tax and it's an oil producing nation, I can see rigs out my window!

 

[richard]

its72 cents a litre in Toronto - was $1.35 3 months ago , a similar perecentage drop should follow in Uk I would have thought.

52.35p per litre + VAT = 60.20 p / litre is the fixed tax on unleaded and diesel. So that seriously dampens price movements based on the cost per barrel in US$. On current prices that means a 25% drop in the oil price will result in a 7.5% ish drop in the pump price. So I doubt its going to drop below 80p/litre anytime soon.

- and of course the terrible £/$ drop over the last 3 months hasnt helped.

What we need now is the £ to strenthen against the $ !!

Was talking to a friend in the UAE who is close to the oil companies. They plan based around $44 per dollar, but it costs them $22 to get it out the ground there. The trouble is for the rest of the world, it costs a lot more that $22 to get oil out in other places where its dirtier or colder / more extreme.

Richard

[edited: correct the vat rate !]

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Saw several petrol stations with diesel less than £1 per litre today!!

 

[coupe deville]

With oil falling from $150/barrel to $42 today how about a guess at what will be the lowest price on the forecourt for petrol in the next 6 months?

I will start with 79p

If unleaded drops to 79p in the UK ever again I will stand on Barnsley Town Hall steps b0ll0ck naked and pose for photo's. You will all be invited with your box brownies but be warned, it will not be a pretty sight !!!!!!

 

[Beetnik]

Saw several petrol stations with diesel less than £1 per litre today!!

Diesel? Is that heating oil?

 

[coupe deville]

its that bloody stuff that makes the area around the petrol pumps slippery

 

[RoseTattoo]

If unleaded drops to 79p in the UK ever again I will stand on Barnsley Town Hall steps b0ll0ck naked and pose for photo's. You will all be invited with your box brownies but be warned, it will not be a pretty sight !!!!!!

Maybe it is just a question of what date and at what time as this is falling faster than a wotsitsnames wotsits. On the other hand the pound is falling at the same rate and so you have a chance.

 

[Dieselman]

If unleaded drops to 79p in the UK ever again I will stand on Barnsley Town Hall steps b0ll0ck naked and pose for photo's. You will all be invited with your box brownies but be warned, it will not be a pretty sight !!!!!!

I know, they haven't got any decent buildings in Barnsley..