UK car sales fall 9.3% in July

[grober]

UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body - BBC News

 

[C240Sport97]

good, time we started to live within our means

 

[flowrider]

I wonder whether the fall is mainly from cash or finance buyers. The article says this is a result of uncertainty over Brexit but I think the recent crackdown proposals on diesel cars could be having a bigger impact.

 

[markjay]

UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body - BBC News

"Car sales tend to lag consumer confidence by about six months - many of the cars registered in July will have been ordered several months ago - so the recent post-election slump in sentiment indicates that the downturn has further to run"

What's this 'recent post-election slump in sentiment'?

Is he saying that following the elections the UK goverment is seen by the public to be in weak position to negotiate a good Brexit deal? And that consumers fear an economic downturn as result?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Exchange rates

Hypothesis: with Sterling at $1.31, export demand has gone through the roof - doubling or tripling profits on export sales.

Given the foreign demand, there'll be less pressure on the manufacturers to buy UK volumes, through prices, discounts, and low interest deals.

So, it's not the usual "all things being equal, demand has fallen," because all things haven't been equal - there are good reasons to focus on servicing that highly profitable export demand, and spurn the British buyer.

Other point to note: After record highs recently, and huge numbers of "young" cars in the UK market, maybe there isn't the urgent need to replace those two or three year old cars?

 

[Deleted member 11979]

Hypothesis: with Sterling at $1.31, export demand has gone through the roof - doubling or tripling profits on export sales. Given the foreign demand, there'll be less pressure on the manufacturers to buy UK volumes, through prices, discounts, and low interest deals. So, it's not the usual "all things being equal, demand has fallen," because all things haven't been equal - there are good reasons to focus on servicing that highly profitable export demand, and spurn the British buyer. Other point to note: After record highs recently, and huge numbers of "young" cars in the UK market, maybe there isn't the urgent need to replace those two or three year old cars?

Some good points made

 

[zipdip]

And Diesels sales have gone down 20%,maybe the idiots who think it a great idea to demonize diesels and petrol cars had better understand that all this nonsense about clean air may well look good on paper but until the chinese stop building 100's of coal fired power stations in 2030,nothing we do will make the slightest difference except break our country and others.

 

[trapperjohn]

Bang on the money there zipdip.

 

[markjay]

Remainers keep reminding us that the falling Pound makes imports expensive and foreign holidays unaffordable.

Leavers point out that the falling Pound helps our manufacturing industry export their goods to Europe.

They are both right of course, but as per usual with any politicised issue, people tend to put forward only those nuggets of information that support their argument and ignore anything that does not.

If you ask economists they will tell you... that strong Pound and weak Pound each has its advantages and disadvantages, but either way this is not the point - what investors and manufacturers want to see is stable currency, and predictable inflation rates... so that they can make their business plans accordingly. Uncertainty of any type is the economy's worst enemy.

 

[grober]

Remainers keep reminding us that the falling Pound makes imports expensive and foreign holidays unaffordable.

Leavers point out that the falling Pound helps our manufacturing industry export their goods to Europe.

They are both right of course, but as per usual with any politicised issue, people tend to put forward only those nuggets of information that support their argument and ignore anything that does not.

If you ask economists they will tell you... that strong Pound and weak Pound each has its advantages and disadvantages, but either way this is not the point - what investors and manufacturers want to see is stable currency, and predictable inflation rates... so that they can make their business plans accordingly. Uncertainty of any type is the economy's worst enemy.

Much of what the Governor of the Bank of England said yesterday.
Carney warns Brexit uncertainty is building - BBC News

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Never seen the Bristol Export port so busy

They are both right of course, but as per usual with any politicised issue, people tend to put forward only those nuggets of information that support their argument and ignore anything that does not.

Regardless of the politics of union with Poland and Portugal....

If you drive down the M5 you'll see that Royal Portbury Dock is stuffed to the Gunwales with British cars heading overseas. If the margin on these cars was 5% last year, the currency effect has quadrupled or quintupled on every unit.

One fifth of Germany car exports, which normally arrive in the UK, have probably have dropped in number now that German (Euro) prices have made German cars 20% more expensive than they were in early 2016.

It's not politics to talk about the effect of currencies on sales today, compared to last year.

But it IS politics to theorise on what will happen next.

 

[markjay]

For the falling Pound to actually rescue our manufacturing and export sector....

Those who make long-term plans and decide on investing in new factories or expanding existing ones will need some certainty.

Otherwise they'll just milk the exchange rates while the going is good, but won't make any long term commitments just yet.

 

[flat6buster]

I did hear that fleet sales were down 25%. If that is true it speaks about companies reluctant to invest. This behaviour will of itself cause economic downturn. Happy days ahead, methinks. Not.

 

[st13phil]

For the falling Pound to actually rescue our manufacturing and export sector....

During the fall-out from the 2008 crash, Sterling pretty much hit parity with the Euro.

It would have helped exports if we had a significant proportion of the value chain in UK manufacturing, but we don't. Most "UK Manufacturing" relies on lots of imported materials (denominated in US$ & €) and adds relatively little value, so it didn't.

That said, the world didn't stop turning, the air didn't suddenly become noxious, and we all survived. Just as we will going forward.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Down 2% year on year

As the BBC article says, UK new car registrations are down 2% year on year.

Which means that we may end up being 2% off the record high of 2016. Times is 'ard.

"Buy More Cars !!! " (What do you mean, you bought one last year?)

 

[tylerdurden]

Will be interesting to see what happens over the next year.

Several things have put me off buying a new car

1. Diesel demonising
2. Poor quality petrol lineups, paying top dollar for a 4cyl seems mental
3. Hybrids- just don't do it for me in current guise
4. An industry that does not seem to have an idea where it's going. I need confidence the the car will not get banned from various city centres/roads etc

 

[PenelopePitstop]

End of 2017 will be good time to get cheap leasing and some excellent deals on stock cars in December. Buying car is another matter.

 

[Scooby_Doo]

How many 40K plus cars were bought or preregistered in January , February & March of this year to miss the cartax hike. So actual car sales could have begun to fall months ago. You can manipulate figures to get any result you want.

 

[LTD]

You have hit the nail on the head Scooby

We just bought a VW Polo GTi that was pre-registered in March. Sat for 3 months like that.

Not only did we save the tax (which really wasn't realised until afterwards) but £5k off list

 

[PenelopePitstop]

£450 road tax is highly discouraging.