Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[Swotty]

I am assuming this is meant for me.

Let me give you another angle to it then.

clk320x mentioned the word 'vaccine' - which is a reference to Covid, in essence is a forbidden topic on this forum - in a light-hearted way.

ChipChop took the opportunity, used the word 'vaccine' as a hook, and plugged a very serious - and very sad - true Covid story.

That ChipChop chose this particular story, it not surprising in itself. He often said - on the Covid thread, while it was still open - that he supports 'informed consent' for vaccines. And, indeed, this is what Lisa Shaw's husband said:
'Her husband Gareth Eve said the jab had been "outstanding" but its "risks" should be "recognised".
...
Mr Eve said he was "absolutely not an anti-vaxxer" but while "we don't know this information, maybe the answer is to give people the alternative".

"It's not as if we don't have other vaccines available to us, so while there is this cloud over AstraZeneca, maybe put it on ice and say we are going to look into giving people the other jab," he said.

Mr Eve added: "What the vaccine has done is unbelievable. The work these people have done to get the country back on its feet is outstanding.
"But we need to recognise there are families who have been affected by this jab."

He said he realised the number of fatalities linked to the vaccine was a "drop in the ocean" but said: "It hasn't been a drop in the ocean for our family, it has hit our family like a tidal wave." '

(From: Lisa Shaw death: Husband calls for vaccine choice )

In summary, this was a Covid-related post, plain and simple, which is a direct continuation of a discussion that ChipChop had on the thread that was closed.

This is unfair, because it allows him to post his own views freely, knowing all too well that others - like me - who disagree with him will not be able to respond to the content of his posts.

Pure pedantry and semantics, MJ. I know you like that, but .... 'tis like angels dancing on the head of a pin. You say they can; I say they can't. Others wonder what angels are; others are not sure.

Who is right?

It doesn't matter; it's all about the discussion and interpretation. And the right to do that.

What is essential and most important is the right to discuss, comment and form a view.

Or do you not agree with the right of free speech and the ability of each individual to make his or her or their mind up?

 

[markjay]

A team of scientists has written to the Committee of Climate Change warning that if the UK’s 31.5 million cars are replaced by electric vehicles by 2050, as is currently planned by the Government, this will require almost twice the current annual global supply of cobalt.

The researchers have also calculated that based on the latest ‘811’ battery technology (80 per cent nickel, 10 per cent cobalt, 10 per cent manganese), UK demand for EV batteries will require almost the total amount of neodymium produced globally each year, three quarter’s of the world’s lithium, and “at least half” of the world’s copper.

• Cobalt: the electric car's dirty secret

The letter, authored by a team of eight scientists headed by the Natural History Museum’s head of earth sciences, professor Richard Herrington, explains that to replace the UK’s cars with EVs will require 207,900 tonnes of cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate and “at least” 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, as well as 2,362,500 tonnes of copper.

Furthermore, the Committee on Climate Change, an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008, has previously called for all new cars and vans to be zero-emission by 2035. Professor Herrington and his colleagues estimate that to make the (roughly) 2.5 million new cars sold each year in the UK electric “will require the UK to annually import the equivalent of the entire annual cobalt needs of European industry.”

Which is yet another reason why I believe that EVs are a 'green herring'..... replacing our dependency on dirty oil with a dependency on dirty Coblat (or anything else that is dug out of the ground) is like converting a chronic smoker to an alcoholists. Sure, a smoker will give lung cancer to himself and others, while an alcoholist will only give liver failure to himself. But other than that.....

And, when a person weighing (say) 80Kg drives a car, they use energy to propel and stop - repeatedly - a metal box that's 20 times their own weight. As far as wasted energy goes, it doesn't get much more wateful than that.

We need to make less cars, and drive them less. Have I said this before....?

 

[markjay]

What is essential and most important is the right to discuss, comment and form a view.

Or do you not agree with the right of free speech and the ability of each individual to make his or her or their mind up?

I do agree.

However, there are forum rules. I abide by them. Are you suggesting that ChipChop has the right to break forum rules in the interest of free speech?

I would argue not.

 

[clk320x]

Still at a cost, and how much will that be ?

I don’t know.

Maybe comparable to the cost of the many different repairs that occur on ICE vehicles?

It’s not as if ICE cars are totally mechanically trouble free with no expense necessary is it? At least mine haven’t been!

In fact my W212 is sat outside right now with a coolant leak meaning it’s not driveable till it goes in to the garage.. I’ve just left it for now as I don’t drive it

 

[markjay]

It could certainly be the case that instead of regularly dripping money on annual servicing, maintenance, and repairs of engine and transmission mechanical faults throughout the car's life, EVs will have first relatively cost-free years and then at 8-10 year's old will hit a cliff-edge of the battery replacement cost. Unless, obviously, batteries will become cheaper over time with more options (refurbished, OE, etc).

 

[Tonye]

However, there are forum rules.

And you appear to some members to be the self appointed police. Have your say and try respecting other peoples points of view on forum discussions. If they have done wrong i am sure a moderator will step in.

 

[markjay]

And you appear to some members to be the self appointed police. Have your say and try respecting other peoples points of view on forum discussions. If they have done wrong i am sure a moderator will step in.

Am I being too naive by expecting everyone to obey the rules even when there's no police around? Probably.

 

[Tonye]

You are always being watched, don't be so naive thinking otherwise

 

[Dickster]

Is that a problem with EVs or new cars? By 2030 there will be EVs which are well over 15 years old, and there will be plenty which are 10 years old. And even then you won’t have to make the switch.

But how much will we be paying for fuel?

 

[Dickster]

My Wife and I were discussing this yesterday (EV's and what we'd do). Id be quite happy with an EV, then a ICE for "pleasure" - so a classic weekend car, like i have my Alfa for instance. We've got plenty of space on the drive to allow charging etc so no issues there. The current range would be a bit of an issue for our (pre-covid) continental cycling trips but im sure that will be do-able with some planning. Most other journeys are probably on average 100-150 miles without an overnight stop (where the car could be re-charged). Im not concerned with any cost difference from the fuelling/charging aspect as im sure these will equilibrate anyway. For sure using EV's for many kinds of journey will require a slightly different approach but on balance i think for us it could work in a practical sense. The main issue i have though is cost to buy. I never buy a car new and normally only tie up about 15k per car. We could spend a lot more but although im a car nut ive never felt that comfortable tying up more. We always just buy with cash. I don't like the idea of leasing as i like things to "be mine" so i can do with them as i want. And this is where i start to struggle - typically the age of car i would buy, i would be nervous of the prospect of a big bill for a new battery within my ownership, or facing a huge depreciation in value when i would sell. I tend to keep my cars if i like them so there's a high risk id be lumbered with this cost.

So for me i can get my head round the practical conversion of going to an EV for the day to day cars, but the funding i think will require a completely different approach, and that seems to be the biggest challenge at the moment in terms of getting larger numbers of people to convert. Im not convinced costs will come down that much before 2030. Just look at other electronic gizmos like phones and laptops etc. Yes they can increasingly do a lot more and faster but im not sure the actual costs are less? Maybe i'll just have to bite the bullet at some point and lease.

Only leasing makes sense to me. As you quite rightly say, old cars run the risk of requiring expensive new batteries.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

But how much will we be paying for fuel?

I have absolutely no idea. By the time the final ICE cars are removed from sale I suspect that the taxation model associated with driving (ie road tax and duty paid on fuel) will have been changed.

I can’t say how or when it will be but I suspect that road tax and fuel duties will have been removed (or reduced) and a “pay per use” model (eg per mile) will have been introduced instead.

Then the underlying cost of fuel - whether petrol, diesel, electricity or maybe even hydrogen - will then be priced upon market forces of supply and demand, and pricing for all will be similarly difficult to predict.

 

[grober]

A team of scientists has written to the Committee of Climate Change warning that if the UK’s 31.5 million cars are replaced by electric vehicles by 2050, as is currently planned by the Government, this will require almost twice the current annual global supply of cobalt.

The researchers have also calculated that based on the latest ‘811’ battery technology (80 per cent nickel, 10 per cent cobalt, 10 per cent manganese), UK demand for EV batteries will require almost the total amount of neodymium produced globally each year, three quarter’s of the world’s lithium, and “at least half” of the world’s copper.

• Cobalt: the electric car's dirty secret

The letter, authored by a team of eight scientists headed by the Natural History Museum’s head of earth sciences, professor Richard Herrington, explains that to replace the UK’s cars with EVs will require 207,900 tonnes of cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate and “at least” 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, as well as 2,362,500 tonnes of copper.

Furthermore, the Committee on Climate Change, an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008, has previously called for all new cars and vans to be zero-emission by 2035. Professor Herrington and his colleagues estimate that to make the (roughly) 2.5 million new cars sold each year in the UK electric “will require the UK to annually import the equivalent of the entire annual cobalt needs of European industry.”

Are people going to throw away their lithium -ion powered mobile phones,laptops, power drills,vacuum cleaners etc etc etc or is their lithium--cobalt different from EV batteries -- I know their batteries are smaller but currently there's a lot more of them-- or are the people who raise this completely valid criticism of EV batteries guilty of "selective indignation " What You Should Know About the Cobalt in Your Smartphone

 

[DrNick]

One of the other issues with burning stuff is it uses up oxygen. Everybody is focussed on the emissions of CO2 but what about the effects of using up lots of oxygen?
I know there's more oxygen around than CO2 but its only going one way!

And the other direct contribution to global warming is the direct effect of all these heaters driving around on the road. ICEs are of the order of 20% efficient and so that 80% is directly emitted as heat. Heat which can't go anywhere due to the CO2 blanket that is also being created by the same technology.

I've no idea if this is a real problem, but common sense says its not a good idea to keep this Victorian technology any longer than we need to as a prime source of energy.

 

[Swotty]

I do agree.

However, there are forum rules. I abide by them. Are you suggesting that ChipChop has the right to break forum rules in the interest of free speech?

I would argue not.

That's the job of the moderators, MJ.

 

[Tonye]

Post #646

 

[Tonye]

Lets move on

 

[Tonye]

There's plenty of oxygen, just stop cutting trees down.

 

[Tonye]

For those not in the know, trees and other plants absorb CO2 and convert it into O2 via Photosynthesis by day and release a small amount of CO2 by night.
Maybe the answer is there, a giant bean stalk . I'll have a chat with my mate Jack.

 

[clk320x]

A team of scientists has written to the Committee of Climate Change warning that if the UK’s 31.5 million cars are replaced by electric vehicles by 2050, as is currently planned by the Government, this will require almost twice the current annual global supply of cobalt.

The researchers have also calculated that based on the latest ‘811’ battery technology (80 per cent nickel, 10 per cent cobalt, 10 per cent manganese), UK demand for EV batteries will require almost the total amount of neodymium produced globally each year, three quarter’s of the world’s lithium, and “at least half” of the world’s copper.

• Cobalt: the electric car's dirty secret

The letter, authored by a team of eight scientists headed by the Natural History Museum’s head of earth sciences, professor Richard Herrington, explains that to replace the UK’s cars with EVs will require 207,900 tonnes of cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate and “at least” 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, as well as 2,362,500 tonnes of copper.

Furthermore, the Committee on Climate Change, an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008, has previously called for all new cars and vans to be zero-emission by 2035. Professor Herrington and his colleagues estimate that to make the (roughly) 2.5 million new cars sold each year in the UK electric “will require the UK to annually import the equivalent of the entire annual cobalt needs of European industry.”

Tesla have already solved this with their Cobalt Free Batteries used in the new Model 3s

 

[davymead]

Tesla have already solved this with their Cobalt Free Batteries used in the new Model 3s

Unfortunately we’re not just talking about Cobalt. As posted, other somewhat precious materials are also needed in what will require vast amounts to be procured and processed. For me what’s more undesirable than an EV, is a used EV.
As mentioned as batteries originally fitted diminish the vehicle becomes a pure liability, unless of course someone is willing to recycle those batteries and from what I’ve read that is a rather unpleasant and relatively expensive process.