Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[markjay]

My friend Jack , the one I mentioned earlier , who was a butcher and ran his one shop , certainly bought a new Merc each time it had been superceded by a newer model , thus getting a good deal on the old model , still a new car . My dad did the same , and I know a few other , reasonably well off people , mostly older and retired , who did . Our plumber bought a new W124 260E when he retired , and used it mainly to go to the golf club .

In the street where my mother lived , most of the neighbours , who bought the houses when the estate was built in the seventies were elderly , retired and had nice cars , mostly newish .

I think for comfortably off retired people it is quite normal to buy such cars .

Oh my W140 , I bought from a retired doctor who had bought it new , along with his several others , including his R107 and his Pagoda which are kept in carcoons inside his garage ; he'd tired of the S Class and had just bought a G-Wagen , also new , so he sold me the W140 for £500 ; and I ran it for three years until it was going to need an expensive ABS repair , at which point I gave the car away to a friend who was willing to take a punt on it

Well either they are all on the 10% who pay outright for a new car, or they bought nearly-new cars (I've done that for years) in which case they simply won't be part of the statistics relating to the purchase of new cars.

 

[davymead]

Come on now Guy’s let’s play fair. If we’re to believe your depreciation comparisons of ICE V EV’s let’s not cherry pick ICE vehicle that are well known to drop money like a stone. ie. Vauxhall Omega. Jaguar XJR.

 

[markjay]

Come on now Guy’s let’s play fair. If we’re to believe your depreciation comparisons of ICE V EV’s let’s not cherry pick ICE vehicle that are well known to drop money like a stone. ie. Vauxhall Omega. Jaguar XJR.

But it's OK to cherry-pick Citroens with battery rental scheme, yes.....

 

[davymead]

But it's OK to cherry-pick Citroens with battery rental scheme, yes.....

No it isn’t. So let’s have some sensible comparisons.

 

[ChipChop]

But it's OK to cherry-pick Citroens with battery rental scheme, yes.....

Or make out Hyundai Ioniq 5's start anywhere between £33,000 to £35,000 used on Autotrader.

There are 12 of these cars for sale currently below £30,000 on AT. The cheapest is a 2022 model for £27,000. That is perilously close to 50% depreciation. Correct me if i am wrong but these Hyundai's are around £50,000! new no?

 

[markjay]

Or make out Hyundai Ioniq 5's start anywhere between £33,000 to £35,000 used on Autotrader.

There are 12 of these cars for sale currently below £30,000. The cheapest is a 2022 model for £27,000. That is perilously close to 50% depreciation. Correct me if i am wrong but these Hyundai's are £50,000! new no?

Mine is the Ultimate which is the top spec, there were 7 on sale on Autotrader yesterday.

Back in 2021 the IONIQ 5 ranged from £35k for the entry level model to £50k for the one I have.

So comparing like with like, my £50k car can now be had for £33k to £35k.

(There are other variables, my car has the rather expensive matte paint, plus the optional Tech Pack and the Eco Pack, but then it was RWD and not AWD, but it's nigh on impossible to match exactly all the options when looking at second hand prices, so I sufficed with matching the trim level - Ultimate).

(Also, my particular car covered just 4,500 miles from new, so will be worth more than those cars currently on Autotrader, but again it is impossible to match exactly a second hand car with your own)

 

[ChipChop]

Brightwells August 8th auction results. 3 low mileage 2017 (31-40 K miles) Nissan Leaf EV's. One with quite depleted battery range according to the dash display. All 3 sold for around £5,500 each. Hefty depreciation for a £30,000 car?

Auction VT080823: Cars Auction Bidding Ends: Tuesday, 8th August 2023 from 10:01am - Brightwells

Important Information Please Read: • This is a trade auction only. No bids should be made by any bidder in their capacity as a consumer. • Registration Deposit - A Deposit of

www.brightwells.com

 

[grober]

Still takes the attention away from the senile old fool currently in the White House. The one that okayed blowing up the Nordstream pipelines plunging Europe into an energy crisis. Thanks a lot.

2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[markjay]

Brightwells August 8th auction results. 3 low mileage 2017 (31-40 K miles) Nissan Leaf EV's. One with quite depleted battery range according to the dash display. All 3 sold for around £5,500 each. Hefty depreciation for a £30,000 car?

Auction VT080823: Cars Auction Bidding Ends: Tuesday, 8th August 2023 from 10:01am - Brightwells

Important Information Please Read: • This is a trade auction only. No bids should be made by any bidder in their capacity as a consumer. • Registration Deposit - A Deposit of

www.brightwells.com

The way science works, is that you try and look at the evidence impartially and objectively and then see where the collected data is pointing to.

I am not a scientist, but I try and apply this principle where I can, and I simply used examples of some of the cars I owned (the Omegas and the IONIQ 5), trying not to pick and choose those cars that would 'prove my point'.

I didn't mention other cars I've owned because I don't know what was their RRP when new, so can't compare their second hand prices, keeping in mind that when buying new or nearly-new (as was the case with the IONIQ 5 and the two Omegas) you obviously know the RRP, but when buying a car that's 2-3 years old it's not always easy to unearth the original price list and check the historic RRP.

So from my perspective, I tried to simply look at those cars for which I had the relevant data, and not specifically look for slow or fast depreciating models. And I do accept the constructive criticism that said that depreciation figures can be skewed when looking at prices of second hand cars under 3 years old.

But of course, if you have a point to prove, you can reverse engineer the process, start with your foregone conclusion, and then trawl the Internet for the odd bit of data that will support it. Not a very scientific approach, but it always works I guess.

 

[ChipChop]

The way science works, is that you try and look at the evidence impartially and objectively and then see where the collected data is pointing to.

I am not a scientist, but I try and apply this principle where I can, and I simply used examples of some of the cars I owned (the Omegas and the IONIQ 5), trying not to pick and choose those cars that would 'prove my point'.

I didn't mention other cars I've owned because I don't know what was their RRP when new, so can't compare their second hand prices, keeping in mind that when buying new or nearly-new (as was the case with the IONIQ 5 and the two Omegas) you obviously know the RRP, but when buying a car that's 2-3 years old it's not always easy to unearth the original price list and check the historic RRP.

So from my perspective, I tried to simply look at those cars for which I had the relevant data, and not specifically look for slow or fast depreciating models. And I do accept the constructive criticism that said that depreciation figures can be skewed when looking at prices of second hand cars under 3 years old.

But of course, if you have a point to prove, you can reverse engineer the process, start with your foregone conclusion, and then trawl the Internet for the odd bit of data that will support it. Not a very scientific approach, but it always works I guess.

You could always just consult Glasses guide instead.

"Glass’s expects the average value of a three-year-old car to drop around 5% in 2023, which will still see prices remaining relatively high. However, BEV values are expected to fall by more."

How are UK battery-electric vehicle residual values developing?

Jayson Whittington, head of valuations at Glass’s, discusses the development of battery-electric vehicle residual values in the UK.

glass.co.uk

 

[Pontoneer]

Well either they are all on the 10% who pay outright for a new car, or they bought nearly-new cars (I've done that for years) in which case they simply won't be part of the statistics relating to the purchase of new cars.

I've bought a couple of nearly new cars too , my Audi was an ex demonstrator and had been used by the dealer's wife when I got it at six months old ; first owner was down as the garage , I was the second . I eventually figured that carefully chosen older cars were every bit as good as any up to 3 years old , and so much cheaper to buy and run ; so for the last 25 plus years I've never bought anything less than about 5 years old , and often much older .

The specific people I mentioned all bought brand new cars ; I bought Jack's W116 from him and his was the only name on the document ; same with the W140 and I know my dad's cars were also brand new ; I was with him when he bought the W114 and W115 , then also when he ordered his W123 at the launch event . I obviously can't speak for all the neighbours , but quite a few were clearly new cars since many of them liked to be seen with the new registration mark days after it came out .

I think in the older , retired but well off demographic , a fair few will buy new cars outright , simply because they can afford it ; that was exactly what the elderly gentleman who lived next door to my mother said ; he had no children , house paid for and a good pension ; when I complimented him on his new car he said there was nothing wrong with the old one but that , after all , he could afford it .

 

[Pontoneer]

Mine is the Ultimate which is the top spec, there were 7 on sale on Autotrader yesterday.

Back in 2021 the IONIQ 5 ranged from £35k for the entry level model to £50k for the one I have.

So comparing like with like, my £50k car can now be had for £33k to £35k.

(There are other variables, my car has the rather expensive matte paint, plus the optional Tech Pack and the Eco Pack, but then it was RWD and not AWD, but it's nigh on impossible to match exactly all the options when looking at second hand prices, so I sufficed with matching the trim level - Ultimate).

(Also, my particular car covered just 4,500 miles from new, so will be worth more than those cars currently on Autotrader, but again it is impossible to match exactly a second hand car with your own)

Yet if it is stolen or written off , insurers often expect you to do just that , and any adjustments will always be in their favour , not yours .

 

[markjay]

You could always just consult Glasses guide instead.

"Glass’s expects the average value of a three-year-old car to drop around 5% in 2023, which will still see prices remaining relatively high. However, BEV values are expected to fall by more."

How are UK battery-electric vehicle residual values developing?

Jayson Whittington, head of valuations at Glass’s, discusses the development of battery-electric vehicle residual values in the UK.

glass.co.uk

This is referring to the relative movement of the depreciation figures, but this wasn't the question.

The question was whether EVs depreciate significantly more than comparable ICE cars.

I don't have a definitive answer. I provided figures based on my own personal experience, which seem to suggest that this wasn't the case. But I accept the comments made, regarding the issue with looking at depreciation over a short period of time, among others.

My point is that those who posted on here that second hand buyers shun away from second hand cars because of concerns regarding battery longevity are a mere hypothesis bases on gut feeling (and possibly also on wishful thinking) rather on any actual facts or data.

Again, I don't know for fact if - on average - EVs depreciate more than comparable ICE cars over the first 3 years. If someone can produce some data to support this hypostasis, it will be a good first step. It will still not provide an explanation as to why this is the case, but at least we'll now be looking and actual data instead of dealing with a supposition.

Anyone?

EDIT: apologies, on rereading the Glasses Guide article I found the answer:

"BEV values were reasonably high throughout 2022, as can be seen in the following chart, which shows the average value of a three-year-old car since 2020. BEVs benefited from a spike in interest from retail consumers and businesses looking to avoid waiting up to a year for a new model. Values began rising significantly, although they have been on a steady upward trajectory since February 2021.

Although BEV values are potentially facing a correction, they are only narrowly behind the average when expressed as a percentage of the original price."

So no real difference in depreciation over 3 years. We can close this one I think.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I read online (and posted it here) that 90% of all new car sales in the UK are done with finance. This figure includes business users who lease their car's plus all other forms of finance. Which is not surprising, I guess, with 1.6m cars sold, how many people have £20k to £80k lying around in cash? Some do, but my guess is that not 1.6m people (and businesses).

For sure. When I look at someone driving a £50k Tesla I just see £26k in 48 monthly repayments, for a car that they’ll lose at the end of those four years.

It must be nice to be able to throw away so much money.

Money which, if invested, would be worth £30k at the end of those four years.

And repeat and repeat and repeat…

 

[markjay]

For sure. When I look at someone driving a £50k Tesla I just see £xxk in monthly repayments, for a car that they’ll lose at the end of those four years.

That's me! (driving a Hyundai though, not a Tesla)

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I've bought a couple of nearly new cars too , my Audi was an ex demonstrator and had been used by the dealer's wife when I got it at six months old ; first owner was down as the garage , I was the second . I eventually figured that carefully chosen older cars were every bit as good as any up to 3 years old , and so much cheaper to buy and run ; so for the last 25 plus years I've never bought anything less than about 5 years old , and often much older .

The specific people I mentioned all bought brand new cars ; I bought Jack's W116 from him and his was the only name on the document ; same with the W140 and I know my dad's cars were also brand new ; I was with him when he bought the W114 and W115 , then also when he ordered his W123 at the launch event . I obviously can't speak for all the neighbours , but quite a few were clearly new cars since many of them liked to be seen with the new registration mark days after it came out .

I think in the older , retired but well off demographic , a fair few will buy new cars outright , simply because they can afford it ; that was exactly what the elderly gentleman who lived next door to my mother said ; he had no children , house paid for and a good pension ; when I complimented him on his new car he said there was nothing wrong with the old one but that , after all , he could afford it .

In the days of the W114, W115, W116, W123 and even the W140, I doubt hardly any privately owned cars would have been bought with finance secured on the car itself, the inverse of today.

 

[markjay]

I've bought a couple of nearly new cars too , my Audi was an ex demonstrator and had been used by the dealer's wife when I got it at six months old ; first owner was down as the garage , I was the second . I eventually figured that carefully chosen older cars were every bit as good as any up to 3 years old , and so much cheaper to buy and run ; so for the last 25 plus years I've never bought anything less than about 5 years old , and often much older .

The specific people I mentioned all bought brand new cars ; I bought Jack's W116 from him and his was the only name on the document ; same with the W140 and I know my dad's cars were also brand new ; I was with him when he bought the W114 and W115 , then also when he ordered his W123 at the launch event . I obviously can't speak for all the neighbours , but quite a few were clearly new cars since many of them liked to be seen with the new registration mark days after it came out .

I think in the older , retired but well off demographic , a fair few will buy new cars outright , simply because they can afford it ; that was exactly what the elderly gentleman who lived next door to my mother said ; he had no children , house paid for and a good pension ; when I complimented him on his new car he said there was nothing wrong with the old one but that , after all , he could afford it .

In the days of the W114, W115, W116, W123 and even the W140, I doubt hardly any privately owned cars would have been bought with finance secured on the car itself, the inverse of today.

Firstly, the 90% figure is current, I expect that it was lower historically and went up over the years with finance becoming more commonplace, so it depends on when these people purchased their new cars. Then, they might just happen to be within the 10% who didn't take finance.

Again, I didn't see any figures for second hand buyers (including nearly-new), so no idea if the same percentage applies also here. My educated guess is that the percentage of sales done with finance will go down as the cars get older (and cheaper).

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

That's me! (driving a Hyundai though, not a Tesla)

But then there are the tax breaks…

 

[markjay]

But then there are the tax breaks…

Yes

The way I see it, I don't own the car any more than I own my cabin on a cruise I booked or the hotel room I checked into. It's mine to use for the duration that I paid for it, then it goes to someone else.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

In the days of the W114, W115, W116, W123 and even the W140, I doubt hardly any privately owned cars would have been bought with finance secured on the car itself, the inverse of today.

HP was with us “back in the day.”

Just not as clever as today, where the Corporates borrow money at low rates, and then lend it via offshore finance SPV’s which garner special tax breaks, and who then construct special pricing on the new vehicles to make the finance look even more attractive.

Car manufacturers don’t make profits from manufacturing cars, profit is made through finance and services.