Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[Steveml63]

Hi,
Having worked in the automotive industry for nearly 20 years - for 2 different tier-1 suppliers (of multiplexed electrical systems, onboard electronics, diagnostic tools - including for Mercedes and fuel injection systems) - I will let you into a little secret!
Legacy auto makers like Mercedes, BMW, VW, Ford, GM, Peugeot etc. don’t really make much these days - they sub everything out to tier-1 & tier-2 suppliers.
I used to laugh when I saw that a car manufacturer launched a new model and announced that it had the latest cruise control or clever braking system - knowing that this had been designed and sold to them by the likes of Bosch, Siemens etc.
Mercedes, for instance, would then get a few years exclusivity from Bosch on a new system - until Bosch could then sell it to other auto makers.
The boss of Ford - Jim Farley, hit the nail on the head in a recent interview when he said that Ford does not own the rights to the embedded software in the sub-systems on their vehicles and that Ford need to pay their suppliers to change software (before it can then be released to either the dealers for a recall or for an over-the-air update on their latest sim equipped vehicles).
This is so ironic - as Ford introduced the Model T as a fully vertically integrated car - they literally made everything for that car in their factory.
Fast forward to today and Ford make very little content on their vehicles - including the increasingly important software.
The most vertically integrated car manufacturer today is Tesla - this is shown by their total control of the systems on their vehicles, frequent software updates and record margins on their cars sold.
Jim Farley stated that Ford are going back to their roots and will bring things back in-house - but this takes time & investment.
Just look at the amount of different vehicle manufacturers & models that are affected by the Takata airbag recall.
VW don’t write the software in-house for their EV dash & infotainment systems and it is apparently very buggy and not that good to use.
Legacy auto makers have effectively become lazy over the years and have relied too heavily on outside suppliers for crucial systems on their vehicles.
As vehicles become more software driven with less switches and more big screens - they are suddenly finding themselves in a very tricky position.
Some will adapt but some are likely to fall away!
Cheers
Steve

 

[Dsla333]

Hi,
Having worked in the automotive industry for nearly 20 years - for 2 different tier-1 suppliers (of multiplexed electrical systems, onboard electronics, diagnostic tools - including for Mercedes and fuel injection systems) - I will let you into a little secret!
Legacy auto makers like Mercedes, BMW, VW, Ford, GM, Peugeot etc. don’t really make much these days - they sub everything out to tier-1 & tier-2 suppliers.
I used to laugh when I saw that a car manufacturer launched a new model and announced that it had the latest cruise control or clever braking system - knowing that this had been designed and sold to them by the likes of Bosch, Siemens etc.
Mercedes, for instance, would then get a few years exclusivity from Bosch on a new system - until Bosch could then sell it to other auto makers.
The boss of Ford - Jim Farley, hit the nail on the head in a recent interview when he said that Ford does not own the rights to the embedded software in the sub-systems on their vehicles and that Ford need to pay their suppliers to change software (before it can then be released to either the dealers for a recall or for an over-the-air update on their latest sim equipped vehicles).
This is so ironic - as Ford introduced the Model T as a fully vertically integrated car - they literally made everything for that car in their factory.
Fast forward to today and Ford make very little content on their vehicles - including the increasingly important software.
The most vertically integrated car manufacturer today is Tesla - this is shown by their total control of the systems on their vehicles, frequent software updates and record margins on their cars sold.
Jim Farley stated that Ford are going back to their roots and will bring things back in-house - but this takes time & investment.
Just look at the amount of different vehicle manufacturers & models that are affected by the Takata airbag recall.
VW don’t write the software in-house for their EV dash & infotainment systems and it is apparently very buggy and not that good to use.
Legacy auto makers have effectively become lazy over the years and have relied too heavily on outside suppliers for crucial systems on their vehicles.
As vehicles become more software driven with less switches and more big screens - they are suddenly finding themselves in a very tricky position.
Some will adapt but some are likely to fall away!
Cheers
Steve

Thanks Steve, so interesting, I guess we kind of knew that but you explained so well.

 

[markjay]

Re servicing, my EV is due its first service soon (2 years). I've just booked it with the dealer.

These are the service costs:

My understanding that the 2 year service comprises of the usual check, plus cabin filter replacement plus tyre rotation (and any software updates that are due and haven't been pushed OTA).

The higher cost in year 4 is due to the replacing of the low conductivity coolant.

Over a 4 year period, the service cost averages at around £130 per year.

That's certainly one element of my ICE Merc ownership that I'm not missing.... £500 a year on a Service Care Plan

(You could of course argue that you'll pay less at a specialist or DIY, something that is not really an option on a new EV with long new car warranty, 5 years in the case of Hyundai)

 

[markjay]

Obviously, low scheduled maintenance costs is great news for consumers, but not so much to garages and to those involved in the manufacturing and distribution of service items.

It's also good news for the environment (no annual oil and filter changes), but this hardly negates the effect of the battery issue.....

 

[Gollom]

Been asked about buying electric cars (probably Leaf, Zoe etc.) and the situation with batteries. How much more would they get out of a car with circa 50K on the clock before the battery started giving problems? Is there such a thing as battery insurance? Had a cursory look but not seen that much independent advice out there

 

[whitenemesis]

Been asked about buying electric cars (probably Leaf, Zoe etc.) and the situation with batteries. How much more would they get out of a car with circa 50K on the clock before the battery started giving problems? Is there such a thing as battery insurance? Had a cursory look but not seen that much independent advice out there

Lexus hybrid batteries and ev components are warrantied to 15yrs, unlimited mileage as long as one gets a hybrid health check each year.
On full EV cars they offer a standard 8 year/ 100,000 mile warranty (whichever comes first) on the electric battery. This is extendable to 10 years (or 600,000 miles, whichever comes first). They seem confident in their battery technology

 

[leef44]

Obviously, low scheduled maintenance costs is great news for consumers, but not so much to garages and to those involved in the manufacturing and distribution of service items.

It's also good news for the environment (no annual oil and filter changes), but this hardly negates the effect of the battery issue.....

That's an interesting point. The business model for Korean cars are very different from German cars.

The German prestige tend to focus on touchy feely quality and to charge a premium for this. Cost cut on quality regards parts and rely heavily on lease deals where people change their cars every three years or so (not so focused on longevity/reliability of parts after that). Reliability issues after that gives them good service revenue.

Korean prestige takes a leaf out of Lexus' book. Make it premium, think about reliability of parts and access to serviceable parts, a lot of behind-the-scenes type of thinking. Make a premium on the initial price and rely on the brand image of quality/reliability. Make less money of after service. Perhaps margins/commissions are higher for dealerships to compensate for lower service revenue.

Exception to rule: AMG engines are the bees knees

 

[DrNick]

Been asked about buying electric cars (probably Leaf, Zoe etc.) and the situation with batteries. How much more would they get out of a car with circa 50K on the clock before the battery started giving problems? Is there such a thing as battery insurance? Had a cursory look but not seen that much independent advice out there

As has been reported here, batteries are expected to last the lifetime of the car ie in excess of 150,000 miles.

How Long Does a Tesla Battery Last?

A look at what Tesla says and what’s happening in the real world provides some answers to a tricky question.

www.motortrend.com

How long do electric car batteries last? | EVBox This has a link to:

Nissan exec: “Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars”

Among the never-ending flood of “Don’t get me wrong—I love electric vehicles, but...” articles and posts, we read dire warnings that EV batteries will wear out in a few years, making the cars worthless, and that they can’t be recycled. Above: A Nissan Leaf at a home charging station. Photo...

evannex.com

So very nearly all will last ages and with little degradation. However, you might be unlucky and if one does fail then it will be expensive at the moment. Battery repair facilities will start appearing as it becomes viable.
If its already done 50,000 miles I would say there would be no reason to think there would ever be a problem with it. Any that have done less than that are likely to still be under any time based warranty. Personally I wouldn't worry about it in a second hand car, but I can understand why people would. To me it just means there will be some high mileage bargains out there!

 

[leef44]

Re servicing, my EV is due its first service soon (2 years). I've just booked it with the dealer.

These are the service costs:

My understanding that the 2 year service comprises of the usual check, plus cabin filter replacement plus tyre rotation (and any software updates that are due and haven't been pushed OTA).

The higher cost in year 4 is due to the replacing of the low conductivity coolant.

Over a 4 year period, the service cost averages at around £130 per year.

That's certainly one element of my ICE Merc ownership that I'm not missing.... £500 a year on a Service Care Plan

(You could of course argue that you'll pay less at a specialist or DIY, something that is not really an option on a new EV with long new car warranty, 5 years in the case of Hyundai)

Thank you for keeping us updated with your ownership experience. There does seem a lot of praise for Hyundai and Kia. It's good to hear first hand experience of their EV offerings.

I think I would be more inclined to go this direction when I eventually bite the EV bullet. They're quite pricey cars including second hand but this gives me more confidence that you get what you pay for as opposed to paying a premium for perceived quality.

 

[Gollom]

I have seen the future!

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Just lately I’ve been sniffing around the cheapest Nissan Leafs listed on Autotrader. It seems £3,500 buys a car with 50 mile range. That’s not enough for me to get to work and back, but it’s ample for going to the supermarket, shopping city centre, gym, collect takeaways, and go out for dinner nine times out of ten.

 

[TeddyRuxpin]

Yeah, and 'only' £4.5k or so for the 100 mile range. Seems like the only 'cheap' small car worth considering (or a Zoe), if it's a second car. I want one.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I have a soft spot for the Mitsubishi I-MIEV and went to view one when they were recently launched. There’s one for sale for £2500 too. Really tempted.

 

[GrahamT]

There still is the fire issue .

The World Rallycross Championship cars are now fully electric.
Lydden Hill last week end

Huge fire erupts at race circuit as multiple vehicles alight

I wonder what the insurance industry will make of all this?

Would ytou be comfortable beside a Tesla ( other electric vehicles are available) on a RoRo ferry or in a multi story car park?

Isn't it a bit odd that electric cars are allowed on the Channel Tunnel, but not those pwered by LPG ?

 

[DrNick]

Just lately I’ve been sniffing around the cheapest Nissan Leafs listed on Autotrader. It seems £3,500 buys a car with 50 mile range. That’s not enough for me to get to work and back, but it’s ample for going to the supermarket, shopping city centre, gym, collect takeaways, and go out for dinner nine times out of ten.

And quick and easy to top up, even from a 13amp socket! I think the old ones only actually had 80 miles range when new anyway, to put things into perspective.
They make good sense for local runarounds, which is 90% of most peoples journey, and need no regular maintenance other than say, brake fluid every couple of years and the door hinges oiled if you are being pedantic.
What's the annual tax on them?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

As has been reported here, batteries are expected to last the lifetime of the car ie in excess of 150,000 miles.

How Long Does a Tesla Battery Last?

A look at what Tesla says and what’s happening in the real world provides some answers to a tricky question.

www.motortrend.com

How long do electric car batteries last? | EVBox This has a link to:

Nissan exec: “Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars”

Among the never-ending flood of “Don’t get me wrong—I love electric vehicles, but...” articles and posts, we read dire warnings that EV batteries will wear out in a few years, making the cars worthless, and that they can’t be recycled. Above: A Nissan Leaf at a home charging station. Photo...

evannex.com

So very nearly all will last ages and with little degradation. However, you might be unlucky and if one does fail then it will be expensive at the moment. Battery repair facilities will start appearing as it becomes viable.
If its already done 50,000 miles I would say there would be no reason to think there would ever be a problem with it. Any that have done less than that are likely to still be under any time based warranty. Personally I wouldn't worry about it in a second hand car, but I can understand why people would. To me it just means there will be some high mileage bargains out there!

The whole battery life scepticism thing has been rapidly disproved. Battery repair and recyclers already exist, doing upgrades to older Leaf's to improve that first generation battery life

The issue, as always with any kind of tech, is the pace of change and fashion. People get sniffy about age at 3, 6, 9 and 12 years regardless whether it's an EV or a petrol AMG.

The majority still don't understand this thing about home charging as opposed to "petrol stations." "If" you can be bothered to plug in "when you can," as opposed to refuelling "when you need to," range isn't the issue that some imagine. It's relevant because "restricted range" is has depressed values on anything with a sub-120 mile range.

 

[Benzowner]

Just lately I’ve been sniffing around the cheapest Nissan Leafs listed on Autotrader. It seems £3,500 buys a car with 50 mile range. That’s not enough for me to get to work and back, but it’s ample for going to the supermarket, shopping city centre, gym, collect takeaways, and go out for dinner nine times out of ten.

Yeah, and 'only' £4.5k or so for the 100 mile range. Seems like the only 'cheap' small car worth considering (or a Zoe), if it's a second car. I want one.

Had a Nissan Leaf when my car was in for service with the 150 mile range, drove home and back to dealer maximum 12 miles and wiped 55 miles off the range, I do not trust the claimed range of these electric cars.

 

[markjay]

Just lately I’ve been sniffing around the cheapest Nissan Leafs listed on Autotrader. It seems £3,500 buys a car with 50 mile range. That’s not enough for me to get to work and back, but it’s ample for going to the supermarket, shopping city centre, gym, collect takeaways, and go out for dinner nine times out of ten.

My commute to work is 6 miles each way, it's a 45 minutes journey in a car (one way) of 30 minutes with the underground. Needless to say that I take the underground.

The Leaf would be ideal for someone in my circumstances who needs to drive to work. 'Idling' in start/stop city traffic hardly leaves a dent in the battery capacity and remaining range.

 

[markjay]

Had a Nissan Leaf when my car was in for service with the 150 mile range, drove home and back to dealer maximum 12 miles and wiped 55 miles off the range, I do not trust the claimed range of these electric cars.

My EV officially has a range of 285 miles, but the displayed range fluctuates between 230 miles (cold weather, motorway driving, etc) and 350 miles (warm day, city traffic, lots of regenartiion braking, etc). Other factors such as acceleration (driving style), number of passengers and luggage, tyre pressures, etc, are also significant factors.

In fact, when going downhill, the remaining range goes up as the battery is being topped -up when it is charged via the regeneration system while driving.

The bottom line is that EV range figures are only good for comparison purposes (when measured in a standardised test). Perhaps these should be replaced by an arbitrary score from (say) 1 to 100, or some other classification similar to energy efficiency marking, to avoid misunderstandings.

BTW, ICE cars suffer from the same issue, i.e. people complaining that they are not achieving the quoted mpg, or boasting that they have exceeded them, but in the case of ICE cars these fluctuations are far less extreme than with EVs.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Had a Nissan Leaf when my car was in for service with the 150 mile range, drove home and back to dealer maximum 12 miles and wiped 55 miles off the range, I do not trust the claimed range of these electric cars.

Trip computers try their best to forecast range but can easily be caught out, whether EV or ICE, as all they have to go on is the amount of fuel in the tank (or charge in the battery), and recent consumption (or driving style).

They forecast the future consumption - and therefore range - based largely upon what has happened in the past. It would be able to estimate range more accurately if the destination, route and live traffic conditions were all known too.

On Friday I refilled my petrol car, and immediately after refilling the range was 400 miles - after driving a further 20-30 miles the range was up to 480 miles, so at that time the car thought that more than 500 miles was possible on a full tank.

Before refilling I was driving on relatively free-flowing 30 mph roads, and after refuelling I was driving steadily on a free flowing mostly 40-50 mph road. When I refuelled it assumed that I’d carry on driving as I had before, at 30 mph. After driving at 40-50 mph for a while it assumed I’d carry on doing that.

In reality nether happened. There’s absolutely no way that that car could manage 500 miles on a single tank in real world driving, but if I had carried on driving in exactly the same way in exactly the same conditions then I might have got closer than what actually happened.

In practice I joined a motorway - driving at 70 mph - and the range fell much faster than the distance being covered. I didn’t check at the end of my journey but I would estimate that the range would have been around 360-380 miles for the full tank.

Had I driven to the motorway, met you at the junction and swapped cars with you completing the journey in my car, it would be easy to conclude that the range forecast by the trip computer cannot be trusted. At a point in time - with constant driving conditions - it’s pretty accurate.