Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[markjay]

Sounds reasonable......most ICE cars are not enthusiast owned and even today lots dont make it past 10 years old......people like us (me) will keep them on the road as long as they can.....and what about all the classics?....no one's going to be replacing them with EVs. I'd say just real petrolheads will be in ICE by 2050.....I'll be 83 by then.....pottering around in my "classic" 2029 ICE powered car!

Either that.... or you will "see the light"

 

[Gollom]

Large selection of secondhand EV's? If you look at the production numbers for EV's you may be surprised how few have actually been manufactured to date.

For example the Nissan Leaf was the no 1 EV seller until the Tesla model 3 came along yet in the first 10 years of production the dreadful Leaf only sold 208,000 units in Europe between 2011 and 2021. Globally Leaf sales were 577,000 from 2010 to 2022.

Compare those figures with the Mercedes w201 190 and it sold 1,874,000 units between 1982 to 1993. That cars successor the w202 sold 1,847,000 units in just 6 years and the sublime w124 in its many forms sold a total of 2,562,000 units over a 11/12 year lifespan. I would expect more 'mundane' cars like Ford's Sierra to have sold significantly more units than these premium Mercedes models.

The 'masterplan' for the future appears to be less cars on the road fullstop, otherwise known as restricted mobility for the masses.

Really interested in this until I got to "restricted mobility for the masses" Do you really think this is yet another "masterplan" to dominate the poor downtrodden and allow only the elite to have free mobility? Or was it just a poor choice of phrase? Genuinely interested

 

[markjay]

Just to say that if (finally and hopefully) city centres will be closed to all private cars, then this will affect poor and rich alike (unless you consider people who can afford to take a taxi 'rich').

 

[ChipChop]

Really interested in this until I got to "restricted mobility for the masses" Do you really think this is yet another "masterplan" to dominate the poor downtrodden and allow only the elite to have free mobility? Or was it just a poor choice of phrase? Genuinely interested

Not sure what you deem to be a poor choice of phrase in my post? The word "masterplan"?

 

[Gollom]

Not sure what you deem to be a poor choice of phrase in my post? The word "masterplan"?

Really?!! LOL You said (in full) "The 'masterplan' for the future appears to be less cars on the road fullstop, otherwise known as restricted mobility for the masses"

That says to me you are saying this is a masterplan to restrict mobility for the masses and therefore allow only the non-masses to have unrestricted mobility? Who would be the non-masses be?

 

[Gollom]

Just to say that if (finally and hopefully) city centres will be closed to all private cars, then this will affect poor and rich alike (unless you consider people who can afford to take a taxi 'rich').

Cue mass exodus of all the filthy rich with supercars from London! LOL

 

[Dryce]

The question is how long will it take for the other 75% to disappear - I predict that ICE cars will be down to 25% of all cars by 2040.

Anyone care to place a wager....?

I think we're in slightly uncharted territory.

I would guess at the moment we are seeing a reduction in new car sales but also some of that reduction offset by people waiting and watching and hanging on to vehicles past the point they would normally keep them.

Friends and neighbours I speak to are generally treating their current cars as their last ones and planning to hang on because of uncertainty. Wait and see attitude. I wouldn't be surprised if there might be a 'last orders' flurry approaching 2030 for those who want to keep going with ICEs.

 

[ChipChop]

Really?!! LOL You said (in full) "The 'masterplan' for the future appears to be less cars on the road fullstop, otherwise known as restricted mobility for the masses"

That says to me you are saying this is a masterplan to restrict mobility for the masses and therefore allow only the non-masses to have unrestricted mobility? Who would be the non-masses be?

How else do you think the UK will reach it's legally binding net zero 2050 targets without restricting travel for the masses?

As for who the non-masses or an elite may be try those who make up the sustainable development net zero goals invented 50 years ago by the Club of Rome - "The Limits to Growth". The UN and all the politicians who sign up to the sustainable development 4SD goals with no concern to the wider costs for society.

Unless of course you consider dispoing of a perfectly good ICE car, buying a majority Chinese made EV to be in some way environmentally beneficial. Personally i would say it is a nonsense. Bad for the planet. Even from the urban emissions angle the benefits are only marginal/moderate as demonstrated by those who have taken Khan's ULEZ claims to task.

 

[Dryce]

Just to say that if (finally and hopefully) city centres will be closed to all private cars, then this will affect poor and rich alike (unless you consider people who can afford to take a taxi 'rich').

Have you seen the decline going on in some of our large towns and cities?

The level of activity I see in suburban retail parks looks disproportionately high compared with the state of the urban centres I visit.

 

[markjay]

Have you seen the decline going on in some of our large towns and cities?

The level of activity I see in suburban retail parks looks disproportionately high compared with the state of the urban centres I visit.

It's a distopian view to suggest that our city centres can only survive via heavy traffic congestion and unaffordable parking fees. Not to mention pollution - it will be at least a decade before we get rid of ICE cars.

 

[Darrell]

Cue mass exodus of all the filthy rich with supercars from London! LOL

^^ This ^^

Problem is though that all the filthy rich with their super cars along with everybody else will simply clog up the roads just outside the city centres.

It’s happening already as a result of ULEZ.

 

[markjay]

^^ This ^^

Problem is though that all the filthy rich with their super cars along with everybody else will simply clog up the roads just outside the city centres.

It’s happening already as a result of ULEZ.

The roads outside the ULEZ are clogged by the filthy rich in their old Diesel cars....?

 

[Darrell]

The roads outside the ULEZ are clogged by the filthy rich in their old Diesel cars....?

No.
There’s a couple of roads around Purley that’s are on the edge of the ULEZ. Drivers with non exempt vehicles are diverting onto these roads to avoid paying.

They might be well off though.

 

[ChipChop]

No.
There’s a couple of roads around Purley that’s are on the edge of the ULEZ. Drivers with non exempt vehicles are diverting onto these roads to avoid paying.

They might be well off though.

A webcam of the goings on at this roundabout would be interesting.



Carry on going east at the roundabout and you enter the ULEZ zone and the Heathrow Terminal 5 drop off charge zone. Pay the £12.50 ULEZ & the £5 T5 charge or drop off at the roundabout?

DXXk Turpin is alive and well and oblivious to the cost of living crisis.

Longford

www.google.com

 

[markjay]

A webcam of the goings on at this roundabout would be interesting.

View attachment 146522

Carry on going east at the roundabout and you enter the ULEZ zone and the Heathrow Terminal 5 drop off charge zone. Pay the £12.50 ULEZ & the £5 T5 charge or drop off at the roundabout?

DXXk Turpin is alive and well and oblivious to the cost of living crisis.

Longford

www.google.com

Purley and Heathrow are 30+ miles apart?

 

[Darrell]

Purley and Heathrow are 30+ miles apart?

So?

 

[markjay]

So?

Why would you drop-off at the roundabout in Purley someone heading to Heathrow.....? Are they meant to hike 30 miles? I know luggage has wheels these days, but still

Or did I misunderstand CC's post?

 

[markjay]

OK, got it now... CC quoted your post regarding Purley but he's actually talking about Longford. Missed that.

 

[markjay]

BTW, I travel to T5 on the Elizabeth Line completely free of charge (after 9am) due to my advanced age

 

[Pontoneer]

I think you are referring to the small Hybrid batteries, with an initial range of 20-30 miles, where a deterioration of the battery essentially 'kills' the benefit of having a Hybrid.

With modern EVs, battery deterioration is not generally an issue. My EV has 8 years warranty for the battery, i.e. the manufacturer warrants that the battery will not deteriorate below 80% capacity within this time frame. Long battery warranties are very common with most EV manufacturers, what this means is that any issues with the battery will likely manifest themelsves under the wonership of the 3rd of 4th owner (because the battery will be reoplaced under warranty if failed before that).

In fact, manufacturers predict that modern EV batteries will last the life of the car, but it's obviously early days and only time will tell.

The expectation is that battery deterioration will be gradual and over time, and owners will accept it just as they currently accept a gradual decline in performance of high mileage engines.

No , I was referring to some of the earlier EVs , like the Nissan Leaf , which someone else mentioned . If I'm not mistaken , these had a range of only 120-150 miles on a full charge when new , and secondhand ones only a few years old can have a range of as little as 30 , 40 or 50 miles , making them only of use as shopping cars or the like . New battery packs were priced at thousands , more than the cars were worth , and then the problem of what to do with the old batteries , which cannot be disposed of in an environmentally friendly way .