Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[Pontoneer]

Driving almost 1,000 miles last week to Bristol Airport (x2) and Doncaster, I was struck by the number of EVs on the roads, and that's omitting the hybrids and mild hybrids I will have missed.

They were on all roads, all towns and in enough numbers to be noticeable and not just a novelty.

The move, for what ever reason(s) is well underway.

Is there a way of finding out the % of cars on the road (or at least not SORN) that are EV?
Do DVLA publish that's?

It may be a regional thing ; I notice the very odd Tesla , or other ones , but normally only if I'm stopped behind one at lights or whatever - most usually I don't look at other cars unless it is something interesting ; and most EVs strike me as bland uninteresting things .

 

[Pontoneer]

Looking back in history the early electric vehicles failed because the cheap to buy and run Ford Model T came along and kick started the ICE car industry. Modern EV's are neither cheap to buy or run so history dictates they are also likely to fail unless the vested interests (battery manufacturing) known as the Chinese state flood the Western car market with an affordable EV. Suppose the blingy MG4 EV is the first shot across the bows by the Chinese.

Not only that , but things like Stanley Steam cars also outsold them . The Ford was certainly one of , if not the , first to be made on a production line ; all cars before that being hand assembled .

 

[Pontoneer]

Really interested in this until I got to "restricted mobility for the masses" Do you really think this is yet another "masterplan" to dominate the poor downtrodden and allow only the elite to have free mobility? Or was it just a poor choice of phrase? Genuinely interested

I think there is some sort of sinister agenda following yesterday's announcement that there is already some sort of cross party group with an agenda to promote walking , cycling and wheeling ( whatever the last one is ) . It is getting to be high time that a party representing the interests of motorists was established ; after all , all drivers are voters , and someone looking after my interests might get my vote .

 

[Pontoneer]

Just to say that if (finally and hopefully) city centres will be closed to all private cars, then this will affect poor and rich alike (unless you consider people who can afford to take a taxi 'rich').

Nowhere should be out of bounds to any road users ; although cities are already places I choose not to go unless I have no other option .

 

[Darrell]

Nowhere should be out of bounds to any road users ; although cities are already places I choose not to go unless I have no other option .

^^ This ^^

Think of the money they earn off of car buyers and users.

Governments need cars on the road.

 

[markjay]

No , I was referring to some of the earlier EVs , like the Nissan Leaf , which someone else mentioned . If I'm not mistaken , these had a range of only 120-150 miles on a full charge when new , and secondhand ones only a few years old can have a range of as little as 30 , 40 or 50 miles , making them only of use as shopping cars or the like . New battery packs were priced at thousands , more than the cars were worth , and then the problem of what to do with the old batteries , which cannot be disposed of in an environmentally friendly way .

Yes, that was indeed a debacle at the time, the price to pay for being an early adopter I guess.

 

[markjay]

Nowhere should be out of bounds to any road users ; although cities are already places I choose not to go unless I have no other option .

No one is barred from anywhere, just certain modes of transport will be prohibited in certain areas.

It's no different to restricting canals to only certain type of boats (you can't use a speedboat, for example), or closing residential roads to HGVs etc.

By all means, you will be welcome to visit the city centre by foot, bicycle, hired motorised scooter, bus, taxi, or train - plenty of choice to suit everyone.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

View attachment 144231
Something like this

Presumably all those are ULEZ compatible?

 

[Tonye]

Presumably all those are ULEZ compatible?

Mostly classics so exempt the rest are on red so running in stealth mode.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I've no plans to change any of our cars in the near future, however if the ICE ban is enacted then I would expect manufacturers to stop selling any new ICE vehicles after 2028, (sooner?). It just seems to make sense that they would switch to alternatives sooner rather than stockpiling things they can't sell. As we all know there is already a massive stockpile of unused ICE vehicles around the world. So, by definition the UK will have its fair share.

Have you forgotten that the UK is less than one percent of the world's population, and that most of the world hasn't banned ICE as yet?

Europe, China Japan and the USA "may" be on course to banning fossil fuel vehicles in the 2030's, but not Central and Southern America, Africa, Australia, the Middle East, or Russia. Even in India and Central America, which are tentatively looking at two decades away, the ambition still seems very "soft."

"A massive stockpile of unused ICE vehicles around the world?" How many, roughly? What is that as a percentage of the 1,000,000,000 vehicles currently in use around the world.

Sadiq Khan may be terrorising outer London, but he's had no effect on the eight billion wannabe car drivers in the world.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

It may be a regional thing ; I notice the very odd Tesla , or other ones , but normally only if I'm stopped behind one at lights or whatever - most usually I don't look at other cars unless it is something interesting ; and most EVs strike me as bland uninteresting things .

I suspect that generally the further North and the further West you go, then the fewer the number of EVs. I split my time between the (North) Midlands and South West:

There are many EVs in the Midlands parked on driveways, car parks and driving on all roads. Combined, white Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are very conspicuous by quantity.

EVs are reasonably common in holiday season in the tourist hot spot areas, however there seems to be relatively few being used by local residents.

It’s not really a surprise though as many will be co pant cars and I suspect that relatively few jobs come with a company car or salary sacrifice scheme in rural areas.

I suspect North of Scotland and West of Wales would be amongst the areas with the lowest uptake for that reason, combined with limitations of local infrastructure.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I think (hope!) that it will be longer than 10 years.....current projection and sales forecast that only about 25% of cars registered on UK roads will be EV by Jan 2030........that's an awful lot of ICE drivers left to change.

Come on boys, do the numbers.

A billion vehicles on the world's roads, of which roughly 26 million are BEV's

How long do you think it will take to replace those billion vehicles? To help you with your calculations, a full ten million BEV's were sold in 2022

Care to give a guess as to how long it will take to put Teslas into every Indian village, Texas, Zimbabwe, Russia and Zimbabwe?

 

[Tonye]

Care to give a guess as to how long it will take

Not in our lifetime

 

[Pontoneer]

No one is barred from anywhere, just certain modes of transport will be prohibited in certain areas.

It's no different to restricting canals to only certain type of boats (you can't use a speedboat, for example), or closing residential roads to HGVs etc.

By all means, you will be welcome to visit the city centre by foot, bicycle, hired motorised scooter, bus, taxi, or train - plenty of choice to suit everyone.

DRIVERS are people and banned from certain areas : I cannot currently take my car into M-B Glasgow , which is just inside the zone , and which would be a requirement if I wanted to order a lock or a key ( which are things I do want to order , but not in any great hurry - my passenger door lock and the tailgate lock does not turn , plus I have one 'new key and one well worn one , both of which work in the drivers door and the ignition , plus the glvebox lock and the lock for the underfloor compartment , so fairly confident they are correct to the car ) ; they have to see the vehicle on their premises ; equally if I wanted to take the car in for a service . Won't be a problem once the car is 30 years old next year , but for now , a lot of people with cars aged between 15 and 30 years old are excluded . I expect there will also still be a lot of people with cars such as R129 or R230 SLs , W140 and W220 S-Classes which possibly do not comply with LEZ but who still went to the dealership for servicing , now having to go elsewhere . This will probably lead to M-B Glasgow leaving their current site and moving out to Braehead , where Audi , Porsche , Ferrari , Jaguar , and others have recently relocated to .

I could absolutely take a speedboat on the Forth and Clyde canal , but I would have to adhere to the speed limit of 5mph or whatever .

I haven't seen a residential road closed to HGVs , after all the dutbin lorry is one , as are delivery trucks and building supplies lorries - many roads are , however unsuitable or impractical for such vehicles , yet we still meet them on country lanes when they have been to farms , or their GPS tells the driver to go that way .

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Sounds about right.
The question is how long will it take for the other 75% to disappear - I predict that ICE cars will be down to 25% of all cars by 2040.
Anyone care to place a wager....?

35 million cars on UK roads at present. Assuming no change in the total vehicle population (dubious).

So you think that a net 26 million extra EV's will be sold into the UK in 17 years. (It has to be a "net" increase number, because many EV's will be scrapped along the way, as a result of high mileage and damage.

"Not a cat in hell's chance," IMHO.

The UK only bought 1.6 million cars in 2022, of which just 250k were BEV's.

Your model would only "work" if every vehicle sold from today onwards is a BEV, and none are scrapped for any reason at all, even the taxis on with 300,000 on the clock.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

DRIVERS are people and banned from certain areas : I cannot currently take my car into M-B Glasgow , which is just inside the zone ,

Good rhetoric but it's one square mile.

Out of 95,000 square miles in the UK.

Call it 0.0001% of the UK

Workarounds will be found in the other 99.9999% of the country

 

[Pontoneer]

Good rhetoric but it's one square mile.

Out of 95,000 square miles in the UK.

Call it 0.0001% of the UK

Workarounds will be found in the other 99.9999% of the country

I agree , I just gave it as an example because it is the one that affects me . I can still go down to M-B Ayr , but it is as far in the other direction and a place I seldom go , whereas I regularly pass by Glasgow on the motorway , and within 500 yds of the dealership there .

However , more impactful for a great many people will be London and other cities with these restrictions : how many main dealers for all makes of car are there in London ? How many people now cannot get to their dealer of choice either for parts or for servicing ? This will affect many people in many ways .

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Why is it that people can't get their heads around Brits charging their EV's at home, starting off with fully, and cheaply, charged EV's potentially every day, but certainly on every occasion that they're travelling a significant distance?

Why can't folks see that company car parks will have charging points for their wage slaves? That Supermarkets and other organisations with regular customer visits will be installing chargers so that people can top up while having a beer or a burger? Or so that someone can just pop into the pub car park one morning to top up because they're 150 miles away from home?

Are we just stuck in that London Bus mind set of still having bus routes that start and finish at places that used to be convenient stops to water and change the horses?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I agree , I just gave it as an example because it is the one that affects me . I can still go down to M-B Ayr , but it is as far in the other direction and a place I seldom go , whereas I regularly pass by Glasgow on the motorway , and within 500 yds of the dealership there .

However , more impactful for a great many people will be London and other cities with these restrictions : how many main dealers for all makes of car are there in London ? How many people now cannot get to their dealer of choice either for parts or for servicing ? This will affect many people in many ways .

I'm sorry, Glasgow is a unique square mile of lunacy.

London isn't anywhere near banning ICE. It's raising several hundred million a year for Sadiq's next reelection run, but it's not banning private vehicles any time soon.

 

[Pontoneer]

Why is it that people can't get their heads around Brits charging their EV's at home, starting off with fully, and cheaply, charged EV's potentially every day, but certainly on every occasion that they're travelling a significant distance?

Why can't folks see that company car parks will have charging points for their wage slaves? That Supermarkets and other organisations will regular client visits will be installing chargers so that people can top up while having a beer or a burger?

Are we just stuck in that London Bus mind set of still having bus routes that start and finish at places that used to be convenient stops to water and change the horses?

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Here in Scotland , my one friend who was an early adopter of Tesla ( and traded in his Jaaag when they offered a good deal ) has a home charger ( it was paid for by Scottish Government , along with his six year interest free loan to buy the vehicle ) but always charges half a mile down the road in the public park , because here in Scotland all public charge points ( the one in local authority car parks , not private ones ) are free , which was another SG initiative as part of the 'Greener Scotland' plan . Together with the huge numbers of windfarms on our hills , hydro electric schemes and our one remaining nuclear power station , we seem to have plenty of electricity ( not that this clean , and mostly free , energy seems to be bringing my electricity bill down any ) . While there will always be people who cannot have home chargers because they have to park on street ; there are many who do , but still charge at work , in public car parks , at railway stations , in supermarket car parks etc etc because it actually costs them less to do so .