Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[ALFAitalia]

With the advent of sustainable combustion fuel , already being used in motorsport and classic events , the mining of fossil fuel will eventually decline , if not stopped altogether .

However it is far from certain that EVs are the answer , and they may yet prove to be as much a flash in the pan as they were back at the dawn of motoring , when electric vehicles were a far way behind steam powered road vehicles and both eventually ousted by petrol power .

Technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells look much more likely to succeed longer term , without the need for charging infrastructure everywhere or unethical mining of toxic substances from third world sources . Ferrari recently announced that they will never build an EV , and even VW suspended production after finding that EVs just aren't selling in the numbers anticipated .

I think petrol cars will be here to stay for a while and I do not think EVs are the answer in the longer term .

EVs will be MADE to work. Hydrogen is a no go.....just about the most inefficient and energy heavy was to turn electricity in car forward motion and we would need a massive over supply of green electricity to even contemplate it.....about 20% efficient compared to 90 plus in an EV. The Gov have pretty much said that they will not be moving the 2030 date....the power companies say they can cope etc etc....and WAY to much time and investment has gone into it to go back now. I don't like it either....but like it or not EVs are the future.....for now.

Ferrari recently announced that they will never build an EV ,

Apart from this one then....Unless of course they have changed their mind since this was written....which is a very Italian thing to do!

"The 2023 Ferrari Purosangue, which is Italian for “pure blood.” Our first SUV is powered by a V12 and there's also a hybrid version that combines a V8 with an electric motor. Two fully electric models are also in development and will hit the market in the next few years."

 

[TeddyRuxpin]

Ferrari says going electric means 'even more unique' cars

Electric and hybrid models should make up 80% of Ferrari's sales by 2030, the luxury carmaker told investors on Thursday, vowing to produce "even more unique" cars as it leans on partners to make the costly shift to zero-emission driving.

www.reuters.com

"But the direction is clear," Besson wrote. "Electrification is required but will not change the DNA of the company and its products."

 

[Pontoneer]

EVs will be MADE to work. Hydrogen is a no go.....just about the most inefficient and energy heavy was to turn electricity in car forward motion and we would need a massive over supply of green electricity to even contemplate it.....about 20% efficient compared to 90 plus in an EV. The Gov have pretty much said that they will not be moving the 2030 date....the power companies say they can cope etc etc....and WAY to much time and investment has gone into it to go back now. I don't like it either....but like it or not EVs are the future.....for now.



Apart from this one then....Unless of course they have changed their mind since this was written....which is a very Italian thing to do!

"The 2023 Ferrari Purosangue, which is Italian for “pure blood.” Our first SUV is powered by a V12 and there's also a hybrid version that combines a V8 with an electric motor. Two fully electric models are also in development and will hit the market in the next few years."

Obtaining the raw materials remains one of the main issues , and no amount of political resolve will get around that .

As for separating hydrogen , the middle east desert countries which for the past half century have made so much from oil will most likely be the ones to start producing and selling hydrogen , with huge expanses of desert , they are well placed to create huge farms of photo voltaic cells to generate electricity to separate water , or indeed , with mirrors to simply use heat from the sun ; the separated hydrogen can then be shipped out around the world .

There is such an abundance of solar energy in these places that efficiency is irrelevant .

While generating companies in the first world may claim that they can put in the infrastructure to charge EVs , elsewhere in the world I'd expect the situation to be 'nae chance' and throughout large parts of the world EVs won't get a look in anytime within the next century .

The Ferrari announcement was just within the last few weeks , more recently that the Purosangue , and perhaps what they meant was that they won't produce a pure EV ?

Anyway , having had most engine configurations over my life ( apart from the i3 my daughter has in her Polo ) the one significant one I've yet to own is a V-12 , so after i retire I will probably be looking for a R129 600SL or SL600 to complete the ambition ; if all this controversy softens the prices of such things , then I will benefit . It won't be a daily car so fuel efficiency hardly matters . I bought my E220 to have a cheap daily driver , and being already 65 feel I can get through my next 20 or so years enjoying my petrol cars without any drama , of course assuming I live that long . What I can say is that I will never buy an EV or any similar POS .

I remember reading the article upon the introduction of the W126 in CAR magazine back in 1979 ,in which they stated both that Mercedes-Benz had predicted the cars would last for 20 years ( which they did , and more ) also that , by that time fuel would be rationed and people would have to save up for a journey ; that actually may in time come about , but it certainly hadn't by the early 2000s ) . I actually had a nearly new W116 280SE back in 1979 and later went on to have three W126s , all were thirsty beasts and even my 280SE drank just as much as my 500SEL , so always go for the biggest and best one ! However , that just goes to show that while some predictions come true , others do not .

 

[markjay]

I think (hope!) that it will be longer than 10 years.....current projection and sales forecast that only about 25% of cars registered on UK roads will be EV by Jan 2030........that's an awful lot of ICE drivers left to change.

Keep in mind that a significant portion of new car sales in the UK is sales to business users via a business lease, and business users are bound to lease new cars because that's the only way to get the tax advantages (regardless of the fact that EVs will no longer enjoy reduced BIK by 2030).

This means that new EVs will hit our roads en-masse after 2030 - because business users will be after the tax benefits which they can't get with a second-hand car.

You may be looking at private individuals such as yourself and other forum members who say "why on earth would we want to buy a new EV after 2030", and that's fair enough, but many others who do not think like yourself will get new EVs - again, all business users, for one - and so I would be hesitant to jump into conclusions suggesting that the ICE market will continue to thrive for very much longer after 2030.

These new EVs on business leases will all hit the second hand car market 2-3 years after the lease commencement date, and will continue to do so year-on-year after that. When second-hand buyers will be faced with a large selection of second hand ex-business-lease EVs, the ICE market will likely decline much faster than people envision. I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but that's my view.

 

[Pontoneer]

Ferrari says going electric means 'even more unique' cars

Electric and hybrid models should make up 80% of Ferrari's sales by 2030, the luxury carmaker told investors on Thursday, vowing to produce "even more unique" cars as it leans on partners to make the costly shift to zero-emission driving.

www.reuters.com

That was well over a year ago , the statement I read was just a few weeks ago .

 

[TeddyRuxpin]

That was well over a year ago , the statement I read was just a few weeks ago .

Are you confusing it with this:

Ferrari CEO says the luxury carmaker will never do self-driving cars

In a bid to stick close to its roots, Ferrari is avoiding the self-driving car route that its competitors are taking.

fortune.com

 

[markjay]

As for separating hydrogen , the middle east desert countries which for the past half century have made so much from oil will most likely be the ones to start producing and selling hydrogen , with huge expanses of desert , they are well placed to create huge farms of photo voltaic cells to generate electricity to separate water , or indeed , with mirrors to simply use heat from the sun ; the separated hydrogen can then be shipped out around the world .

Hydrogen will be great for buses, rubbish trucks, local distribution vehicles, etc - in short, for vehicles that go to sleep in a fixed depot (e.g. the bus garage). This means that whoever runs them can have hydrogen refuelling facilities on-site, just as they currently do with Diesel, and the vehicles can be refuelled with Hydrogen daily at the depot.

But I don't see Hydrogen being used by other types of operators, not in the foreseeable future anyway. People are still complaining today about insufficient national EV charging infrastructure, and that's 20 years after the first EV charger was installed in the UK. I don't see anyone currently building a national infrastructure of Hydrogen refuelling stations, let alone developing the required Hydrogen production and distribution capacity. I therefore don't believe that this will happen in the next 10 or even 20 years.

Much has been said about Hydrogen Fuelcell powered EVs being better and more efficient than battery powered EVs, and this may be true, but I also think that much of the hype about Hydrogen powered cars comes actually from the EV-bashing brigade who have conceded that ICE is on its way out, and are looking for other ways of undermining battery powered EVs. Personal opinion.

 

[Pontoneer]

Keep in mind that a significant portion of new car sales in the UK is sales to business users via a business lease, and business users are bound to lease new cars because that's the only way to get the tax advantages (regardless of the fact that EVs will no longer enjoy reduced BIK by 2030).

This means that new EVs will hit our roads en-masse after 2030 - because business users will be after the tax benefits which they can't get with a second-hand car.

You may be looking at private individuals such as yourself and other forum members who say "why on earth would we want to buy a new EV after 2030", and that's fair enough, but many others who do not think like yourself will get new EVs - again, all business users, for one - and so I would be hesitant to jump into conclusions suggesting that the ICE market will continue to thrive for very much longer after 2030.

These new EVs on business leases will all hit the second hand car market 2-3 years after the lease commencement date, and will continue to do so year-on-year after that. When second-hand buyers will be faced with a large selection of second hand ex-business-lease EVs, the ICE market will likely decline much faster than people envision. I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but that's my view.

The way this government is going they might be leasing bicycles to business users ; there are also a number of specialist lease companies who lease classic cars to business users .

It is a fact that battery capacity in EVs declines with age and mileage , some horror stories about battery EVs with ranges of only a few miles once five years old and new battery packs costing as much as the vehicle , so it is equally possible that many such vehicles at three years old being worth almost nothing . Current vehicles can have decent residuals if sold on at the end of a lease , but if residuals drop through the floor , what will that do to monthly payments . Also with new technology , remote meetings etc , the need to drive around will largely go away , so company cars may become a thing of the past and that market may fade away too . Instead of travelling to in person meetings , people instead will meet virtually over Teams calls from their home offices . Within my own organisation , instead of people having individual leased cars , few now do and there is a much smaller fleet of pool cars that can be booked as and when required . We are likely to see more of this in the future .

 

[Pontoneer]

Are you confusing it with this:

Ferrari CEO says the luxury carmaker will never do self-driving cars

In a bid to stick close to its roots, Ferrari is avoiding the self-driving car route that its competitors are taking.

fortune.com

No , it wasn't that

 

[190]

The dead line will be put back and it will make little difference to overall levels of pollution.

There are two issues impacting on the wholesale adoption of EV's: one is people don't want to buy them because they are too expensive and the other is the underpinning renewable energy source for EV's is not being developed fast enough.

EV's are almost the side show as outside of cities EV's make little sense without being powered by renewable electricity. The idea that a very high percentage of energy would come from renewable sources was unrealistic. The sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. The alternative of long term storage is too expensive and too polluting to manufacture into the bargain. Fossil fuels will be needed for a long time to come, at least until a huge amount of new nuclear comes on line as the base load of generation. We have wasted 20 years in not recognising the need for nuclear power which is arguable blameable on listening to the same eco nutters that want rid of ICE's

The irony is that the adoption of renewable energy will work against the adoption of EV's by making electricity ever more expensive and undermining their financial advantage, Witness the recent fiasco of no one taking up the offshore wind generation bids. Off shore wind has become just too expensive.

The evidence is mounting that politicians have rushed into a net zero agenda with precious little idea of the practical consequences or how much it will cost. It will be necessary for politicians to get pragmatic and and realistic with deadlines in order to take the public with them on the net zero journey otherwise it won't happen. Watch for the riots on the street if they try to rush it too fast and take peoples cars away.

I'm reminded of how feature films always make what turn out to be unrealistic forecasts of how developed we will be in the future. We weren't ready to go to Jupiter in 2001 and the Terminators rise of the machines won't happen by 2029.. I think all of the net zero deadlines will turn out to be similarly unrealsitic.

 

[Pontoneer]

Hydrogen will be great for buses, rubbish trucks, local distribution vehicles, etc - in short, for vehicles that go to sleep in a fixed depot (e.g. the bus garage). This means that whoever runs them can have hydrogen refuelling facilities on-site, just as they currently do with Diesel, and the vehicles can be refuelled with Hydrogen daily at the depot.

But I don't see Hydrogen being used by other types of operators, not in the foreseeable future anyway. People are still complaining today about insufficient national EV charging infrastructure, and that's 20 years after the first EV charger was installed in the UK. I don't see anyone currently building a national infrastructure of Hydrogen refuelling stations, let alone developing the required Hydrogen production and distribution capacity. I therefore don't believe that this will happen in the next 10 or even 20 years.

Much has been said about Hydrogen Fuelcell powered EVs being better and more efficient than battery powered EVs, and this may be true, but I also think that much of the hype about Hydrogen powered cars comes actually from the EV-bashing brigade who have conceded that ICE is on its way out, and are looking for other ways of undermining battery powered EVs. Personal opinion.

There are already a handful , but only that , of hydrogen fuel stations in the UK . Also there was an incident in Scandinavia where one blew up catastrophically , and opponents always cite the Hindenburg ; but if EVs have failed to catch on in 20 years then it does not look good for them either .

I don't know what the replacement for petrol might be , but I'm not convinced there is any properly viable option just yet .

 

[ChipChop]

These new EVs on business leases will all hit the second hand car market 2-3 years after the lease commencement date, and will continue to do so year-on-year after that. When second-hand buyers will be faced with a large selection of second hand ex-business-lease EVs, the ICE market will likely decline much faster than people envision. I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but that's my view.

Large selection of secondhand EV's? If you look at the production numbers for EV's you may be surprised how few have actually been manufactured to date.

For example the Nissan Leaf was the no 1 EV seller until the Tesla model 3 came along yet in the first 10 years of production the dreadful Leaf only sold 208,000 units in Europe between 2011 and 2021. Globally Leaf sales were 577,000 from 2010 to 2022.

Compare those figures with the Mercedes w201 190 and it sold 1,874,000 units between 1982 to 1993. That cars successor the w202 sold 1,847,000 units in just 6 years and the sublime w124 in its many forms sold a total of 2,562,000 units over a 11/12 year lifespan. I would expect more 'mundane' cars like Ford's Sierra to have sold significantly more units than these premium Mercedes models.

The 'masterplan' for the future appears to be less cars on the road fullstop, otherwise known as restricted mobility for the masses.

 

[markjay]

It is a fact that battery capacity in EVs declines with age and mileage , some horror stories about battery EVs with ranges of only a few miles once five years old and new battery packs costing as much as the vehicle , so it is equally possible that many such vehicles at three years old being worth almost nothing .

I think you are referring to the small Hybrid batteries, with an initial range of 20-30 miles, where a deterioration of the battery essentially 'kills' the benefit of having a Hybrid.

With modern EVs, battery deterioration is not generally an issue. My EV has 8 years warranty for the battery, i.e. the manufacturer warrants that the battery will not deteriorate below 80% capacity within this time frame. Long battery warranties are very common with most EV manufacturers, what this means is that any issues with the battery will likely manifest themelsves under the wonership of the 3rd of 4th owner (because the battery will be reoplaced under warranty if failed before that).

In fact, manufacturers predict that modern EV batteries will last the life of the car, but it's obviously early days and only time will tell.

The expectation is that battery deterioration will be gradual and over time, and owners will accept it just as they currently accept a gradual decline in performance of high mileage engines.

 

[markjay]

Large selection of secondhand EV's? If you look at the production numbers for EV's you may be surprised how few have actually been manufactured to date.

For example the Nissan Leaf was the no 1 EV seller until the Tesla model 3 came along yet in a 10 year lifespan the dreadful Leaf has only sold 208,000 units in Europe between 2011 and 2021. Globally Leaf sales were 577,000 by 2022.

Compare those figures with the Mercedes w201 190 and it sold 1,874,000 units between 1982 to 1993. That cars successor the w202 sold 1,847,000 units in just 6 years. I would expect mundane cars like Ford's Sierra to have sold significantly more than the baby Mercedes premium models.

The 'masterplan' for the future appears to be less cars on the road fullstop, otherwise known as restricted mobility for the masses.

To date... we're in 2023... I'm talking about 2033... have some faith.

 

[fabes]

Driving almost 1,000 miles last week to Bristol Airport (x2) and Doncaster, I was struck by the number of EVs on the roads, and that's omitting the hybrids and mild hybrids I will have missed.

They were on all roads, all towns and in enough numbers to be noticeable and not just a novelty.

The move, for what ever reason(s) is well underway.

Is there a way of finding out the % of cars on the road (or at least not SORN) that are EV?
Do DVLA publish that's?

 

[ALFAitalia]

From Heycar...
Today there are an estimated 660,000 electric cars on the road in the UK and 445,000 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).


That's out of 33.3 million cars overall.....a pretty small percentage. They recon that 25% of the UK car park will be EV by 2030.

 

[ChipChop]

To date... we're in 2023... I'm talking about 2033... have some faith.

Looking back in history the early electric vehicles failed because the cheap to buy and run Ford Model T came along and kick started the ICE car industry. Modern EV's are neither cheap to buy or run so history dictates they are also likely to fail unless the vested interests (battery manufacturing) known as the Chinese state flood the Western car market with an affordable EV. Suppose the blingy MG4 EV is the first shot across the bows by the Chinese.

 

[markjay]

Looking back in history the early electric vehicles failed because the cheap to buy and run Ford Model T came along and kick started the ICE car industry. Modern EV's are neither cheap to buy or run so history dictates they are also likely to fail unless the vested interests (battery manufacturing) known as the Chinese state flood the Western car market with an affordable EV. Suppose the blingy MG4 EV is the first shot across the bows by the Chinese.

I guess we'll find out in 2033 (if I am still around...).

 

[markjay]

From Heycar...
Today there are an estimated 660,000 electric cars on the road in the UK and 445,000 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).


That's out of 33.3 million cars overall.....a pretty small percentage. They recon that 25% of the UK car park will be EV by 2030.

Sounds about right.

The question is how long will it take for the other 75% to disappear - I predict that ICE cars will be down to 25% of all cars by 2040.

Anyone care to place a wager....?

 

[ALFAitalia]

Sounds reasonable......most ICE cars are not enthusiast owned and even today lots dont make it past 10 years old......people like us (me) will keep them on the road as long as they can.....and what about all the classics?....no one's going to be replacing them with EVs. I'd say just real petrolheads will be in ICE by 2050.....I'll be 83 by then.....pottering around in my "classic" 2029 ICE powered car!